Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[phigment]

TSLA is showing unusual strength today. SCTY is showing noticeable strength relative to yesterday.

Hopefully the price will crash to 18.00 after the ER today so I can buy it all up. There's been a lot of good/great ERs this quarter that still resulted in a price crash. I think a negative ER reaction + this macro environment will give us the lowest price for SCTY it's going to go before the merger.

Who is having an ER relevant to SCTY today?

 

[Jayjs20]

Who is having an ER relevant to SCTY today?

Sorry, my mistake. I must have misread something while I was google'ing around last night. Please disregard.

 

[DaveT]

Yes Dave, i will eat my unwashed stinky socks and post the video here. you have my words.

@Xpert Thanks! I've been getting worried about Trump's rise in the polls of late, but your sock-eating video will be my consolation if Trump does indeed win.

 

[AlMc]

@Xpert Thanks! I've been getting worried about Trump's rise in the polls of late, but your sock-eating video will be my consolation if Trump does indeed win.

Great. Do we have a soft tissue surgeon member of the forum that remove those socks from Xpert

 

[DaveT]

Great. Do we have a soft tissue surgeon member of the forum that remove those socks from Xpert

Wouldn't the socks just come out the other end as long as he chewed long enough?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Wouldn't the socks just come out the other end as long as he chewed long enough?

Slightly OT, but hopefully helpful for poor @Xpert :

Boiling them would be beneficial

 

[larmor]

@Xpert Thanks! I've been getting worried about Trump's rise in the polls of late, but your sock-eating video will be my consolation if Trump does indeed win.

While market emotion suggests otherwise, the absence of ev incentives and promotion of traditional ICE autos would be advantageous for tesla. The model 3 is really a BMW 3 series competitor not necessarily a volt/bolt/i3/econobox competitor. Maybe after 200 or 300k of M3 are out, then the more economical version will be available. TM has built a brand alot like apple and that is good and remains unchanged in the face of political headwinds.

 

[3Victoria]

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wouldn't the socks just come out the other end as long as he chewed long enough?

Meh, too lo tech and boring. I vote for a smoothie - Vitamix, to the rescue:

 

[AudubonB]

Moderators are standing by....

...with the bottle of hydrogen peroxide we use on the malamutes when they eat stinky socks.

 

[Value Ev]

Another article on Teslarati about the Solar roof:
How much will the Tesla Solar Roof cost?

Consumer reports made some forecast and analysis about pricing.
Here's the final numbers:

The analysis also does not factor in the location of the home, the angle of the roof, or its orientation toward the sun. Clearly, a roof in southern California will generate more electricity over its useful life than a roof in the northeast.The team at CR also assume the combination of a solar roof and a Powerwall system will supply all of a home’s energy needs without the need to draw (and pay for) additional power from the grid.

Funny.
It is a HUGE assumption to state that the roof can supply that much electricity on average through the year.

I look forward to them actually figuring out how much solar is needed to meet the needs of such a house ($2,000/year) and what the variability is based on the location, orientation, angle, etc.

 

[schonelucht]

And Tesla deliberately chose not to do that because those would have been AP1 cars being delivered after the AP2 announcement. They built AP1 inventory cars instead that will be sold at a small discount to help make the Q4 goal.

Yes, I have been saying that all along. Tesla is building inventory but there are still a lot of poster out there who are taking issue with that conclusion.

 

[dhrivnak]

Funny.
It is a HUGE assumption to state that the roof can supply that much electricity on average through the year.

I look forward to them actually figuring out how much solar is needed to meet the needs of such a house ($2,000/year) and what the variability is based on the location, orientation, angle, etc.

Not sure that is a huge assumption as I have about 1/4 of my roof covered with solar panels and it covers all of the usage for the house and two plug in cars. I live in cloudy NE TN and we heat via an electric heat pump so we are far from an ideal climate solar wise.

 

[brian45011]

I think there is an important takeaways from the fortune article

as a single data point, my 17 year old Amorphous Silicon (ASI) array covers 280sqft (26sq meters) and is around 3-3.5% efficient

I could replace with new present available technology and increase efficiency appx 4-5x or go with newer and get 6-7x increase (and a battery pack)(and use the reflected light from my neighbors Mcmansion!)

multiply by me and a lot of replacers and new builders and you get steady, upward pressure on the stock price

Yet 22.5% of SCTY's NPV (after recourse debt) accrues from renewals of leases/PPAs in years 21-30. Technological obsolescence means renewals are unlikely and could threaten defaults during the initial 20 year terms.

The quicker Elon can monetize those leases/PPAs through non-recourse debt, the better.

 

[Skryll]

Not sure that is a huge assumption as I have about 1/4 of my roof covered with solar panels and it covers all of the usage for the house and two plug in cars. I live in cloudy NE TN and we heat via an electric heat pump so we are far from an ideal climate solar wise.

Awesome. I looked into heat pumps but it looked like if I replace my current 30 year old air conditioning / gas heat furnace combo, I would have to drop between $15k and $20k on the project. Since the majority of my cost is already compensated for by having a 10kW solar PV system ($3000/year with two electric cars and AC in the crazy hot summers in california), the difference in cost savings for gas ($750/year) was not making this attractive.

How much did you pay for the heat pump system all in all ?

 

[MitchJi]

Another article on Teslarati about the Solar roof:
How much will the Tesla Solar Roof cost?

Consumer reports made some forecast and analysis about pricing.
Here's the final numbers:

After Consumer Reports checked all its sources, made all its assumptions, and crunched all its numbers, it said in order to be competitive,

• a Tuscan tile roof needs to cost less than $69,500 ($2,300 x 100 square foot).
• a smooth or textured tile roof needs to cost less than $73,500 ($2,450 x 100 square feet)
• a slate tile roof needs to cost less than $98,500 ($3,300 x 100 square feet).

Original analysis from CR here: Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

Thanks!

At least one huge inaccuracy though (Musk promises in bold below):

But here’s what the installed costs look like for the roughly 3,000 square feet of roofing needed to cover an average size home in the U.S.

Clay Tile: $16,000
Asphalt: $20,000
Slate: $45,000

So how could a $73,500 roof be considered cost-competitive with a $20,000 asphalt roof? To compensate for the proposed added value of the “free” electricity from Tesla’s roof, we added in $2,000 a year, over the lifespan of the roof. That’s a typical electric bill in states where solar is big, like California, Texas, and North Carolina.

Tesla says the life expectancy of its tiles will be 30 years. So that adds $60,000 to the value of the roof. (Our rough estimate assumes our hypothetical Solar Roof homes generate exactly as much electricity as they use.)

One final factor: the Tesla Solar Roof will work like any rooftop solar system, connecting to your home’s electric panel through an inverter. You could stop there, but the system is being packaged alongside Tesla’s forthcoming Powerwall 2.0, a battery storage device with a built-in inverter and an installed cost of $6,500. Combining Solar Roof and Powerwall 2.0, Musk promises, will power an entire home with 100 percent renewable energy.

I disagree with the comparison to asphalt shingles though. If they cost as much as slate or clay tiles that's comparable to a premium roof, actually better because the SCTY tiles are stronger.

 

[MitchJi]

This could be the dictionary definition of "not really committed":
White House announces new ‘EV corridors’ to accelerate deployment of electric vehicles and charging stations

Montana’s State Energy Office commits to swapping out two hybrid vehicles for two plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2017.

 

[Ulmo]

Yet 22.5% of SCTY's NPV (after recourse debt) accrues from renewals of leases/PPAs in years 21-30. Technological obsolescence means renewals are unlikely and could threaten defaults during the initial 20 year terms.

The quicker Elon can monetize those leases/PPAs through non-recourse debt, the better.

How ambitious is the 22.5%? From what I recall, it seemed reasonable. We can't predict the future, but a lot of people don't touch stuff that "just works".

 

[dennis]

Yet 22.5% of SCTY's NPV (after recourse debt) accrues from renewals of leases/PPAs in years 21-30. Technological obsolescence means renewals are unlikely and could threaten defaults during the initial 20 year terms.

The quicker Elon can monetize those leases/PPAs through non-recourse debt, the better.

But if this happens it will be a rounding error for Tesla in 2035 or even 2025. As Elon would say "mouse nuts".

 

[Xpert]

@Xpert Thanks! I've been getting worried about Trump's rise in the polls of late, but your sock-eating video will be my consolation if Trump does indeed win.

Worry no longer my friend, I'll even send Trump a congrats in the mail with the socks That came out of my bottom, including a sock eating manual in case he got booted from the white house for losing his bet to build a wall and make america great again.