Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[AudubonB]

From Aubrey's post #43172:

Some new details on Tesla & SolarCity roof:
Here Are Important New Details About Tesla's Solar Roof

Thank you for bringing that to attention. Quite surprising to see such a purely positive article out of Fortune.

There were several times in the article where the positive slant was a bit overwhelming; one example is where the author cited Rive:

But Rive said a Tesla/SolarCity solar panel would have efficiencies in the 22% to 24% range, an improvement over commodity solar panels that more commonly convert around 10% to 15% of light into electricity.

"10-15%" is below what effectively any panels currently being offered put out. Those are #s of what extant panels installed over prior years can collect.

Regardless, some nice details are presented in the article.

 

[Value Ev]

Stop with Cramer, we don't know who is doing the interview tomorrow since its taking place after Cramer is off air during 11 am ET. Its at the Ron Barron Conference & EM isn't listed as a scheduled speaker so likely a last minute appearance to drum up votes.

Besides, what would Elon say that he didn't already say a week ago at ER, or Friday at the solar event or Tuesday with the call with press and analysts?

Is he going to reveal new information or just repeat what he already said?

 

[kenliles]

How long do you think the Cramer effect will last?

about 10 minutes
from this morning...

 

[Lump]

Public has large misconception about charge stations...

Ask any tesla owner how often they go to a public charge station and the answer is almost never.

Bottom-line: once your EV has 200mi+ range, you don't need public charge stations in your local daily travel. You charge at home at night.

For long distance travel, Fast Level-3 chargers (Superchargers) are crucial.

Yes, Tesla Supercharging is great except when encountering waiting queues & then being caped at 60kw that many of us have repeatedly sat thru over the last 6 months.

 

[Sparky]

So I went in big pre-ER at around $198 and felt pretty damned smug when I listened to the conference call. Watched the stock bump nicely and set my stop-losses in thirds at $210,$205,$200. As we know, all three of those floors were breached in 24 hours.
When I don't have a working short term thesis on a stock (after several plays) I take a breather.

In the last 6 months, I've bought-sold TSLA 16 times and gained 1%. That's too much work! I actually made more on SCTY.
So, this morning I re-entered with more FB and NVDA. NVDA has done very well for me since August, equivalent to TSLA rising to $290.
I still think AP2 is a huge development that's yet to blossom. It was why I bought at $198 a week before ER.
Because of the good TE news that keeps on coming and my contrarian attitude towards common sense, I also added back some TSLA.
But, just 10%. I probably won't add again until $215 (or $180).

 

[Green Pete]

Public has large misconception about charge stations...

Ask any tesla owner how often they go to a public charge station and the answer is almost never.

Bottom-line: once your EV has 200mi+ range, you don't need public charge stations in your local daily travel. You charge at home at night.

For long distance travel, Fast Level-3 chargers (Superchargers) are crucial.

I recently saw some data that actually showed that customers who used the supercharger more often had less battery capacity degradation.

 

[dennis]

Besides, what would Elon say that he didn't already say a week ago at ER, or Friday at the solar event or Tuesday with the call with press and analysts?

Is he going to reveal new information or just repeat what he already said?

Tell them what you are going to tell them.
Tell them.
Tell them what you told them.

New concepts and ideas require a lot of repetition before they sink in.

 

[Green Pete]

So I went in big pre-ER at around $198 and felt pretty damned smug when I listened to the conference call. Watched the stock bump nicely and set my stop-losses in thirds at $210,$205,$200. As we know, all three of those floors were breached in 24 hours.
When I don't have a working short term thesis on a stock (after several plays) I take a breather.

In the last 6 months, I've bought-sold TSLA 16 times and gained 1%. That's too much work! I actually made more on SCTY.
So, this morning I re-entered with more FB and NVDA. NVDA has done very well for me since August, equivalent to TSLA rising to $290.
I still think AP2 is a huge development that's yet to blossom. It was why I bought at $198 a week before ER.
Because of the good TE news that keeps on coming and my contrarian attitude towards common sense, I also added back some TSLA.
But, just 10%. I probably won't add again until $215 (or $180).

Just my personal opinion, but if you are buying and selling all the time your better off doing some options. If you want to buy stock just buy it and hold it for 2 years. Your not going to make any significant money buying and selling the way you are.

 

[FredTMC]

Yes, Tesla Supercharging is great except when encountering waiting queues & then being caped at 60kw that many of us have repeatedly sat thru over the last 6 months.

Locals shouldn't use superchargers for free juice. That's a big contributor.

This gets alleviated with Model 3. It'll be a pay-per-use model instead of the all-you-can-eat buffet

 

[Green Pete]

Tell them what you are going to tell them.
Tell them.
Tell them what you told them.

New concepts and ideas require a lot of repetition before they sink in.

Then when the finally get it they'll act like anyone who doesn't understand is stupid and Tesla isn't doing anything groundbreaking because its just obvious what should be done. The fact nobody else is doing anything similar is irrelevant.

 

[Green Pete]

Locals shouldn't use superchargers for free juice. That's a big contributor.

This gets alleviated with Model 3. It'll be a pay-per-use model instead of the all-you-can-eat buffet

Im guessing the volume of cars at superchargers will increase significantly when the Tesla network comes out. Interestingly here in Ann Arbor I've never seen more than 1 car at the supercharger station.

 

[winfield100]

From Aubrey's post #43172:

Some new details on Tesla & SolarCity roof:
Here Are Important New Details About Tesla's Solar Roof

I think there is an important takeaways from the fortune article

"For example, SolarCity CTO Peter Rive said that Silevo had perfected what’s called a “heterojunction cell” (basically multiple layers of semiconductors) using a 6-inch wafer, while Panasonic hasn’t yet transitioned to using a 6-inch wafer for solar cells."

a-Si/c-Si Heterojunction Solar Cells | PV-LAB
(mildly technical discussion of what it is and why it ups the efficiency in smaller area) (ASi on Si, etc)

as a single data point, my 17 year old Amorphous Silicon (ASI) array covers 280sqft (26sq meters) and is around 3-3.5% efficient

I could replace with new present available technology and increase efficiency appx 4-5x or go with newer and get 6-7x increase (and a battery pack)
(and use the reflected light from my neighbors Mcmansion!)

multiply by me and a lot of replacers and new builders and you get steady, upward pressure on the stock price

{I THINK this may help short term stock price as well and is hopefully pertinent to the discussion}

 

[Bgarret]

Public has large misconception about charge stations...

Ask any tesla owner how often they go to a public charge station and the answer is almost never.

Bottom-line: once your EV has 200mi+ range, you don't need public charge stations in your local daily travel. You charge at home at night.

For long distance travel, Fast Level-3 chargers (Superchargers) are crucial.

Fred....I Love ya, but that post is pure California Dreamin'. For those of us in the hinterlands/flyover states/Banned Tesla locations, public charging is often the only option. Mine is plugged in to a Chargepoint station as I type (partially because it is a block from my work, no one uses it and is free) but in Michigan and road tripping in Maine, I've used public chargers 10-15 times in 6 months.

This news is great for adoption of electric vehicles in general and is also a boost to the infrastructure necessary for widespread adoption of Model III. It also changes the tune and adopts Electrification as needed Infrastructure - a category that many on both sides of the aisle are embracing for economic stimulus. I'm traveling to Central Michigan this weekend and because of lack of infrastructure, I will likely have to drive an additional 45 miles to Ann Arbor to Supercharge to get enough to get back to the Grand Rapids Supercharger. Tacks on about 1.5 hours to my trip. Would love to stop somewhere for lunch and get 30-50 miles I need to go round trip.

MORE INFRASTRUCTURE PLEASE!

 

[FredTMC]

Fred....I Love ya, but that post is pure California Dreamin'. For those of us in the hinterlands/flyover states/Banned Tesla locations, public charging is often the only option. Mine is plugged in to a Chargepoint station as I type (partially because it is a block from my work, no one uses it and is free) but in Michigan and road tripping in Maine, I've used public chargers 10-15 times in 6 months.

This news is great for adoption of electric vehicles in general and is also a boost to the infrastructure necessary for widespread adoption of Model III. It also changes the tune and adopts Electrification as needed Infrastructure - a category that many on both sides of the aisle are embracing for economic stimulus. I'm traveling to Central Michigan this weekend and because of lack of infrastructure, I will likely have to drive an additional 45 miles to Ann Arbor to Supercharge to get enough to get back to the Grand Rapids Supercharger. Tacks on about 1.5 hours to my trip. Would love to stop somewhere for lunch and get 30-50 miles I need to go round trip.

MORE INFRASTRUCTURE PLEASE!

You too man.

Don't get me wrong, I'm fine with more infrastructure.

I think the best use is filling in the highway corridors with fast Level 3 DC chargers. Practical EVs will all have 200mi+ range.

I'd do the same as you at work. Free juice. Why not?! Essential? No...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is an interesting TE fact. According to the US Energy Storage Monitor: Q2 2016, p 4 (these quarterly reports are usually available for a hefty fee, but this one somehow made it into the Internets, so grab it while it lasts) There was total of 21.2MWh of Energy Storage deployed in US in 2016 Q1.

According to Tesla 2016 Q1 shareholder letter there were total of 2500 PowerWall and 100 PowerPacks delivered worldwide. So global TE deliveries of 26MWh (2500 x 6.4 + 100 x 100) exceeded total US deployment during the same interval.

It is clear that TE is on track to become the largest BES supplier in the world - likely during the 2017.

 

[techmaven]

Here is an interesting TE fact. According to the US Energy Storage Monitor: Q2 2016, p 4 (these quarterly reports are usually available for a hefty fee, but this one somehow made it into the Internets, so grab it while it lasts) There was total of 21.2MWh of Energy Storage deployed in US in 2016 Q1.

According to Tesla 2016 Q1 shareholder letter there were total of 2500 PowerWall and 100 PowerPacks delivered worldwide. So global TE deliveries of 26MWh (2500 x 6.4 + 100 x 100) exceeded total US deployment during the same interval.

It is clear that TE is on track to become the largest BES supplier in the world - likely during the 2017.

Nice find.

As usual with these reports, they don't take into account the Tesla effect. The pricing drop will happen faster than they think, therefore the adoption will also move faster than they think. It's like reading the battery cell pricing reports from 2009-2011 with 2015 to 2025 estimates. Tesla hit those price points 5-10 years earlier.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Another article on Teslarati about the Solar roof:
How much will the Tesla Solar Roof cost?

Consumer reports made some forecast and analysis about pricing.
Here's the final numbers:

After Consumer Reports checked all its sources, made all its assumptions, and crunched all its numbers, it said in order to be competitive,

• a Tuscan tile roof needs to cost less than $69,500 ($2,300 x 100 square foot).
• a smooth or textured tile roof needs to cost less than $73,500 ($2,450 x 100 square feet)
• a slate tile roof needs to cost less than $98,500 ($3,300 x 100 square feet).

Original analysis from CR here: Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

 

[Ulmo]

Here is an interesting TE fact. According to the US Energy Storage Monitor: Q2 2016, p 4 (these quarterly reports are usually available for a hefty fee, but this one somehow made it into the Internets, so grab it while it lasts) There was total of 21.2MWh of Energy Storage deployed in US in 2016 Q1.

According to Tesla 2016 Q1 shareholder letter there were total of 2500 PowerWall and 100 PowerPacks delivered worldwide. So global TE deliveries of 26MWh (2500 x 6.4 + 100 x 100) exceeded total US deployment during the same interval.

It is clear that TE is on track to become the largest BES supplier in the world - likely during the 2017.

While that's all good, for some reason, Tesla has gone out of its way to make visibility of TE products in USA minimal. This may be getting top dollar in foreign hot spots, but in terms of stock investing, as soon as TE starts high production PW2 and the buyer announcements are more than a few, that's when analysts will suddenly see TE as more real, and will stop calling Tesla "Tesla Motors", and stop talking about their stock price like it's about the car models and this "crazy ass plan to get into bottom-feeder leased solar panel high cost push sales".

---

Another article on Teslarati about the Solar roof:
How much will the Tesla Solar Roof cost?

Consumer reports made some forecast and analysis about pricing.
Here's the final numbers:

After Consumer Reports checked all its sources, made all its assumptions, and crunched all its numbers, it said in order to be competitive,

• a Tuscan tile roof needs to cost less than $69,500 ($2,300 x 100 square foot).
• a smooth or textured tile roof needs to cost less than $73,500 ($2,450 x 100 square feet)
• a slate tile roof needs to cost less than $98,500 ($3,300 x 100 square feet).

Original analysis from CR here: Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

I can't wait until I start to play with real numbers on these things. I'm sure analysts are already crunching numbers in spreadsheets everywhere trying to nail (screw? bolt? epoxy? silicon rubber caulk? tar?) this down.

 

[Jayjs20]

TSLA is showing unusual strength today. SCTY is showing noticeable strength relative to yesterday.



edit: Please disregard

 

[davecolene0606]

Note the powerall has 13.5kWh capacity but outputs 7kW continous, so a comparable system would be http://gens.lccdn.com/generaccorpor...-generators-powerpact-7kw_spec-sheet-2017.pdf which does actually cost more like $2k, not $10k.

I also doubt even 50% of the solar city customers will add the powerwall, unless it is feasible for SolarCity to add that to their leasing customers to lower the amount of money going to the net-metering power company because of some time of use plan.

I think its a great product and tesla will have enough demand to match supply but not as overstated as you put it.

You might want to look at the specs real close and the requirements to meet them. This is no $2000 solution way more like ten after installation and specs highly dependent on location and temperature not to mention the required fuel supply.