Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MrRandyB]

So uh are we still waiting on how Solarcity shareholders voted?

SolarCity’s shareholders also having approved the acquisition, the transaction will be completed in the coming days.

Tesla’s Acquisition of SolarCity Receives Shareholder Approval

 

[3Victoria]

Why is the share price of SCTY not at the offer price right now after hours?

The offer was not a set price --- it was a relative deal: one Tesla share for 11 SC shares. The SP has nothing to do with it.

 

[MitchJi]

I wish he would specify that asphalt shingle is the "normal" roof to which he refers price parity with.

I don't think it is. He talked about the breakage and weight/cost of shipping being less as compared to tiles [tera cota?] and concrete [tiles].

 

[Rarity]

Regarding delisting of SCTY, does anybody have a good sense of how much delay happens normally?

 

[ggr]

Why is the share price of SCTY not at the offer price right now after hours?

There is no "offer price", it's a stock swap. Current (after hours) TSLA is $191, which corresponds to SCTY $21.01. SCTY (after hours) is $20.89. That's pretty close, less than half a basis point difference.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I expect he is comparing like-to-like -- so Tesla-ceramic to ceramic, Tesla-slate to slate. He lives in California -- lots of tile roofs there. Asphalt is inexpensive, but does not last as long, so may not be the bargain it looks.

I agree.

In any case, Tesla will have no chance to produce sufficient solar roofing tiles to meet demand, if the price he is suggesting is realistic. Tesla needs another ten Buffalo factories.

 

[EinSV]

Roll out of solar roofs in volume to begin next summer. Could be very interesting ....

Discussion of solar roof cost potentially being lower than a regular roof was clearly referring to lower cost from the perspective of a potential customer.

 

[Ulmo]

Why is the share price of SCTY not at the offer price right now after hours?

I only looked once, but it was spot on. The last SCTY trade was in the middle of the 20c spread of TSLA.

 

[larmor]

congrats--
Same here-
Like taking candy from a flaming Chanos troll doll
View attachment 202683

with the added advantage that the resulting wailings are...
mutable

Is that troll a naked short...

 

[3Victoria]

I agree.

In any case, Tesla will have no chance to produce sufficient solar roofing tiles to meet demand, if the price he is suggesting is realistic. Tesla needs another ten Buffalo factories.

That's got to be worth a bump up in the SP! Fortunately, most will not want to replace a roof before the present one is due to be replaced. Amazing future for Tesla (as expected by me at least).

 

[dennis]

Waaaallllll...

I just added a whole bunch of TSLA shares to our position....at $154.53/sh.

Color me really, really REALLY happy.

Me too!

 

[tander]

Regarding delisting of SCTY, does anybody have a good sense of how much delay happens normally?

The blog says "in the coming days" if that helps

 

[tander]

"Tesla’s shareholders have overwhelmingly approved our acquisition of SolarCity. Excluding the votes of Elon and other affiliated shareholders, more than 85% of shares voted were cast in favor of the acquisition. With SolarCity’s shareholders also having approved the acquisition, the transaction will be completed in the coming days.

We would like to thank our shareholders for continuing to support our vision for the future. We look forward to showing the world what Tesla and SolarCity can achieve together."

 

[madodel]

There is no shred of doubt in my mind - Tesla *will* deliver more Model 3 in 2017 than GM will Bolt. I say this with confidence, because I believe Tesla will deliver well over 50,000, and possibly over 100,000 Model 3 in 2017, and GM couldn't deliver more than 30,000 Bolt if they wanted to.

Anyone know how many employee reservations there are for the Model Ξ?

 

[Turing]

I expect he is comparing like-to-like -- so Tesla-ceramic to ceramic, Tesla-slate to slate. He lives in California -- lots of tile roofs there. Asphalt is inexpensive, but does not last as long, so may not be the bargain it looks.

Agree. You can't compare just the upfront cost of a roof that will last 20 years to one that will last 50 years or more.

 

[DragonWatch]

Thank god for small favors, now can we move forward and kick some fossil fuel ass?

 

[madodel]

I wish he would stop saying "regular" roof.

In California that probably is a regular roof in his neighborhood.

 

[AudubonB]

And the live feed really and truly IS NOW UP: Special Shareholder Meeting | Tesla

 

[racer26]

Why is the share price of SCTY not at the offer price right now after hours?

How many times do people have to explain there is no offer PRICE. There is an offer RATIO. For every SCTY you have, you get 0.11 TSLA, not an amount of cash.

As of writing, SCTY is at 20.83 in AH
20.85 / 0.11 = 189.54. TSLA's AH price is 189.73.

Its close enough to a zero arb gap. AH trades are infrequent and so it won't be an exact match.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I don't believe it. How many homes do you know with ceramic tile roofs? I can't think of a single one in my area. I concede that this may be partially because of *where* I live, but even when I travel, I rarely see tile roofs with greater frequency than where I live.

Elon's companies are about changing the world. You will not change the world with a product that's cheaper than only the most expensive roofing out there today, which nobody uses because of its cost. You change the world by attacking the price point of the asphalt shingles that 99% of homes have.

At mass scale, things approach the cost of their input materials. Glass is just sand + power. Asphalt shingles need oil, which needs to be refined, plus some aggregate material. Seems to me that there's no reason to believe that glass tiles couldn't be cheaper than asphalt. Particularly when you remember that Elon's latest kick has been about totally revolutionizing the modern factory by orders of magnitude.

So to put a Hungarian / European perspective on this, most roofs I have ever seen this side of the pond are ceramic (on private homes) or ceramic looking concrete. Basically the one i am showing on the picture below. Now, I know very little about roofing, but I just hit up the websites of 2 very popular brands even i know the names of and found these parameters:

You need roughly 9-12 pieces per square meter and each weighs around 4kg and costs $1-2 per piece (normal tile; special tiles on the edges and spine of the roof can go 7-10x as much, but you need a lot less of those). So this roughly puts tile costs at $10-20 per square meter, or roughly $1-2 per square foot depending on style, material and brand.

Now, again, with very limited knowledge on the subject matter, I also know the carpentry (?) or wooden structure that holds the whole thing is also very expensive, so if the Tesla tile also reduces the 40-50kg per square meter (~9 lbs per square foot) weight, I am thinking that cost may give as well.

You can add to that the lesser quantity of spare parts to be ordered due to less breakage during transport and installation.