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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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There is no way Tesla can or should keep up with home construction by themselves. The next step fopr scaling things up would be for the Tesla Roof to be available as an option to new home buyers. This would require doing deals with KB Home, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers and so on. I look forward to hearing details on this sort of thing.

Until then, I expect new home buyers wanting a Tesla Roof+Battery will be met with "well, we don't offer that. You can put our basic roof on and then replace it later if you want, how does that sound?"
 
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Elon said the solar roof costs less than a normal roof, even before the free solar electricity is considered. That means they can charge $20k of gross margin on each roof. Each year there are 5 million new roofs in the US alone. Theoretically that's $100B gross margin. There is also the international market.

Was he saying it will cost less to manufacture or it will cost less installed or both?
 
That would be nice, but I assume it's the ceramic tile roof to which it's being compared. If the it's the asphalt shingle, then it would really be a no brainer for anyone, and not just the high end user.
I don't believe it. How many homes do you know with ceramic tile roofs? I can't think of a single one in my area. I concede that this may be partially because of *where* I live, but even when I travel, I rarely see tile roofs with greater frequency than where I live.

Elon's companies are about changing the world. You will not change the world with a product that's cheaper than only the most expensive roofing out there today, which nobody uses because of its cost. You change the world by attacking the price point of the asphalt shingles that 99% of homes have.

At mass scale, things approach the cost of their input materials. Glass is just sand + power. Asphalt shingles need oil, which needs to be refined, plus some aggregate material. Seems to me that there's no reason to believe that glass tiles couldn't be cheaper than asphalt. Particularly when you remember that Elon's latest kick has been about totally revolutionizing the modern factory by orders of magnitude.
 
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Elon's companies are about changing the world. You will not change the world with a product that's cheaper than only the most expensive roofing out there today, which nobody uses because of its cost. You change the world by attacking the price point of the asphalt shingles that 99% of homes have.

And you can't change the world by selling a $100k sedan to rich people.
 
I don't believe it. How many homes do you know with ceramic tile roofs? I can't think of a single one in my area. I concede that this may be partially because of *where* I live, but even when I travel, I rarely see tile roofs with greater frequency than where I live.

Elon's companies are about changing the world. You will not change the world with a product that's cheaper than only the most expensive roofing out there today, which nobody uses because of its cost. You change the world by attacking the price point of the asphalt shingles that 99% of homes have.

At mass scale, things approach the cost of their input materials. Glass is just sand + power. Asphalt shingles need oil, which needs to be refined, plus some aggregate material. Seems to me that there's no reason to believe that glass tiles couldn't be cheaper than asphalt. Particularly when you remember that Elon's latest kick has been about totally revolutionizing the modern factory by orders of magnitude.
In SoCal there are a huge number of houses with tile roofs, and homes are high density. Other parts of the world, which i know of, including Pakistan, newer houses have tile roof as well-i know this from an architect there...
 
I'd bet it's versus ceramics slate / tile, and metal roofs. Beating asphalt tile's price would end the demand for anything but solar.

I expect he is comparing like-to-like -- so Tesla-ceramic to ceramic, Tesla-slate to slate. He lives in California -- lots of tile roofs there. Asphalt is inexpensive, but does not last as long, so may not be the bargain it looks.
 
Waaaallllll...

I just added a whole bunch of TSLA shares to our position....at $154.53/sh.

Color me really, really REALLY happy.

congrats--
Same here-
Like taking candy from a flaming Chanos troll doll
images.jpeg


with the added advantage that the resulting wailings are...
mutable
 
Was he saying it will cost less to manufacture or it will cost less installed or both?
He said it included labour and all that stuff. I can beliveve it.

Installation costs are lower with lighter materials, so glass tiles that weight a quarter of concrete/ceramics/tile should significantly impact installation costs. As he also said, transportation costs will be much less, as well as breakage, given the stronger material. Plus Tesla will cut out all the middle-men.
 
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