I think he was comparing apples to apples, without the consideration of free electricity. At large scale, glass is sand, it's arguably the cheapest material we can get. Solar cells are also super cheap at scale. So they end up with a product that's low cost, last many decades, also can generate free electricity. It's possible the roof business can become a larger profit center than cars.
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GBleck
Member
More likely because it costs a lot less to ship and lasts twice as long and you need less for in transit and install breakage.
Question: where will TSLA stock price go from here? While I would like it to go up but am concerned that tomorrow we'll see some bear attacks now that the merger issue has been resolved (e.g. confirmation that TSLA is definitely doomed since their attention will be split and they won't be able to focus on Model 3 execution). Thoughts? Reassurances?
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Elon never mentions solutions for people in the Southwest. Tile roofs? What they?
How about a flat roof solution, Elon? Guess we'll be waiting a very long time before they have simulated gravel pieces which are actually tiny solar collectors
How about a flat roof solution, Elon? Guess we'll be waiting a very long time before they have simulated gravel pieces which are actually tiny solar collectors
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I expect more of the status quo, but it's impossible to game this stock. Glad to see my vote counted!
I think TSLA will move upwards. With the merger uncertainty out of the way, I think more longs will enter. Especially given the indicated price for the solar roof.
3Victoria
Active Member
You can just install regular ol' ugly solar panels ... nobody sees them anyway.Elon never mentions solutions for people in the Southwest. Tile roofs? What they?
How about a flat roof solution, Elon? Guess we'll be waiting a very long time before they have simulated gravel pieces which are actually tiny solar collectors
View attachment 202687
Are these numbers anywhere near realistic ?
How Fast Must Lithium Ion Batteries Fall For Tesla's Model 3 To Be Viable?
Model S battery cost $27K
Model 3 battery cost $9K
Author says battery cost has to drop 30% each year for the next 3 years for Model3 to make economic sense!
I don't think he makes any sense... but what do I know ?
How Fast Must Lithium Ion Batteries Fall For Tesla's Model 3 To Be Viable?
Model S battery cost $27K
Model 3 battery cost $9K
Author says battery cost has to drop 30% each year for the next 3 years for Model3 to make economic sense!
I don't think he makes any sense... but what do I know ?
3Victoria
Active Member
racer26
Active Member
Which is precisely what Elon suggested. If its cheaper, lasts longer, looks better, AND produces free electricity to boot? Why wouldn't you buy it? If its only cheaper than a tile roof, I can still make an economic argument that its too expensive and choose to buy an asphalt roof instead. The way Elon talks about it being a total no-brainer to do says asphalt shingle to me, not tile. If not at launch, then certainly once the factory reaches full tilt.
Correct. TSLA didn't. They're only just starting to change it now that Model 3 looks like an impending reality. The other automakers didn't take the threat of TSLA seriously until Model 3 was on the table. The solar roofing tiles aren't like cars - there isn't a high-end and a low-end kind of roof, beyond asphalt shingles that 99% of us have, and tiles that last 2-4x as long and cost 2-4x as much. Its like the difference between a Honda Fit and a Honda Accord price-wise, but if 99% of cars were Fits. Sure, there's a difference, but there is nothing at the tippy top like Acura NSX at the top of the roofing world to go after first as Tesla did in the cars.
Tesla's approach with the cars was simple: They knew it would be expensive to build a car, so they built a car that they could sell for a lot of money, learning from the mistakes of countless car companies that tried to start by going after the 20k commuter car first. That approach doesn't work for roofs, and it doesn't need to.
OK, and? SoCal has one of the highest costs of living anywhere on the planet. I say again, if you want to change the world, you have to dream bigger than SoCal. At launch, and while they're still production constrained on the tiles, they might be more expensive, but within 5 years, it will be cheaper than asphalt shingle. Mark my words.
Or...wait for it, tinm...you could make it look as though your house has a whole lot of skylights!
Our winter escape hatch has a flat roof like yours, but the parapets are quite a bit higher, as appears to be the norm in AZ, so our bog-standard PV panels are invisible to any observer not at a location higher than the house.
Our winter escape hatch has a flat roof like yours, but the parapets are quite a bit higher, as appears to be the norm in AZ, so our bog-standard PV panels are invisible to any observer not at a location higher than the house.
Oh, I know someone who knows someone....
Serious: it's called buying a large block of SCTY on 16 Sept at $16.99.
16.99 ÷ .11 = $154.53. Ta da!
16.99 ÷ .11 = $154.53. Ta da!
One of the errors I can see from your summary above is the assumed cost. So Tesla may charge that much for a Model S battery replacement, but by no means is that the cost to them, this includes a healthy profit margin. Model 3 being a high volume less pricey vehicle, they will put a much lesser margin on that too.
This is kind of the same false reasoning I saw when the AP2 pricing was announced. (k is the price for the luxury sedan/SUV that takes the biggest hit of the original development cost and gets the parts at 1/5th the volume of production. Want to bet M3 AP2 will not cost 8k?
3Victoria
Active Member
Ceramic, slate, and other roof types are common, just not where you live .... there is a wider world out there.
The post below cites a credible source for 160,000 PW 1 reservations in the U.S. alone by the time of the GF event last summer. No deposits were required at that stage, but PW 2 is light years ahead of PW 1 in terms of cost/benefit ratio and the deposit is only 500 bucks. I expect my 100,000 Powerwall 2 reservations guesstimate is low by a large margin.
US Tesla Powerwall reservations at 160,000
Any idea on rated lifetime for these ceramic and cement tiles? Here in the US asphalt tiles are the norm, at least here in the NE US, but even the 25 year rated lifetime tiles haven't lasted for us. In the 25 years we have lived in our house we're on our third roof because of 1. wind damage blowing off our roof vent + other damage, and 2. damage done having our roof shoveled (not a problem any more thanks to climate change). If the Tesla tiles can last the lifetime of the house and survive most high wind damage, that would be a good reason for me to switch.So to put a Hungarian / European perspective on this, most roofs I have ever seen this side of the pond are ceramic (on private homes) or ceramic looking concrete. Basically the one i am showing on the picture below. Now, I know very little about roofing, but I just hit up the websites of 2 very popular brands even i know the names of and found these parameters:
You need roughly 9-12 pieces per square meter and each weighs around 4kg and costs $1-2 per piece (normal tile; special tiles on the edges and spine of the roof can go 7-10x as much, but you need a lot less of those). So this roughly puts tile costs at $10-20 per square meter, or roughly $1-2 per square foot depending on style, material and brand.
Now, again, with very limited knowledge on the subject matter, I also know the carpentry (?) or wooden structure that holds the whole thing is also very expensive, so if the Tesla tile also reduces the 40-50kg per square meter (~9 lbs per square foot) weight, I am thinking that cost may give as well.
You can add to that the lesser quantity of spare parts to be ordered due to less breakage during transport and installation.
Muaddid
Member
In Quebec a typical roof life is 15-20 years and made of alphalt tiles. I'd be interested to know how do theses tiles react to snow/ice freezing-defreezing that kills our roads...
Cement roofing here often has warranties of 30 years. They can last twice that. Slate and tile isn't very dissimilar. You have plenty of 50-100 year old buildings here with their original slate roofs. (Some maintenance should be expected, though.)
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