Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[myusername]

So, IF there is a short squeeze, it would likely start Monday.

At this stage that amount of float sold short and the future potential of this company, I can't believe ANYONE in a long position would sell for less than 1000 a share. If Tesla pulls off what they claim to be set to do, 1,000 a share seems cheap.

yup... short squeeze just around the corner.... $300 is a no brainer... all the shorts are right wing coal loving idiots with absolutely no data... $1000 (aka $150b mkt cap == Toyota)... the 80M car/year multi-trillion dollar auto industry is nothing but a bunch of dinosaurs... Tesla w/ 0.08M car/year $6b/yr company will be the largest company that's ever existed in human history... i mean duh... it's just so obvious.

when are you guys going to realize you've been saying this constantly for 3 years and the only thing that's ever happened to this stock is a massive run in 2013?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Bad day??

 

[TMSE]

yup... short squeeze just around the corner.... $300 is a no brainer... all the shorts are right wing coal loving idiots with absolutely no data... $1000 (aka $150b mkt cap == Toyota)... the 80M car/year multi-trillion dollar auto industry is nothing but a bunch of dinosaurs... Tesla w/ 0.08M car/year $6b/yr company will be the largest company that's ever existed in human history... i mean duh... it's just so obvious.

when are you guys going to realize you've been saying this constantly for 3 years and the only thing that's ever happened to this stock is a massive run in 2013?

You seem to know it all. Why don't you impart us your infinite wisdom and lead us to good investments? You know any? None? Are you here for the sheer pleasure of trolling?

 

[Papafox]

Shortanalytics.com shows that yesterday 47% of TSLA trading was done by shorts and today 57% was done by shorts. I have been trying to put my finger on why TSLA managed to jump so successfully from the mandatory morning dip to a nice green gain yesterday but at 10:32am today, when we had the chance to do it again, the effort failed. I'm thinking the tailwinds from macros yesterday and the headwinds from macros today made a difference, but the higher participation of shorts was likely even more important to the difference in trading between the two days. There's also that key moment during the day when the stock can either jump to the green or fall back, and yesterday I saw it make quite an enthusiastic jump up because of buying at just the critical time and today it didn't happen. I suspect there are days such as today when 10,000 shares purchased at just the right time could have made all the difference between an excellent day and a disappointing day.

The good news is the shorts can't continue growing their positions at this rate. The tide will inevitably turn. There's also the possibility of SCTY shorts buying to close next week. One thing is for sure: we'll have front row seats to watch.

 

[Green Pete]

yup... short squeeze just around the corner.... $300 is a no brainer... all the shorts are right wing coal loving idiots with absolutely no data... $1000 (aka $150b mkt cap == Toyota)... the 80M car/year multi-trillion dollar auto industry is nothing but a bunch of dinosaurs... Tesla w/ 0.08M car/year $6b/yr company will be the largest company that's ever existed in human history... i mean duh... it's just so obvious.

when are you guys going to realize you've been saying this constantly for 3 years and the only thing that's ever happened to this stock is a massive run in 2013?

It's not just a car company. It's an energy storage company (utility, residential, and commercial), solar panel company (utility, residential and commercial), financing lender, renewable energy securities broker, fuel station (supercharger). It's soon to be a automated transport service (uber valued at 80 billion with no assets of real value and has fewer drivers than Tesla will produce cars in 2018), and I think very likely a telecom company (getting some reciever hardware in a few million vehicles linked up to 44000 satellites for internet service). And it's cutting edge way ahead of the curve in all those industries.

Toyota is a car company, which will make lower margins on their cars than Tesla.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You seem to know it all. Why don't you impart us your infinite wisdom and lead us to good investments? You know any? None? Are you here for the sheer pleasure of trolling?

Yes.

 

[myusername]

You seem to know it all. Why don't you impart us your infinite wisdom and lead us to good investments? You know any? None? Are you here for the sheer pleasure of trolling?

what is the point of posting... "short squeeze coming... $1000 easy"?

this stock has already proven this wrong... for 3 years people have been saying this stuff... and it's sitting 35% under the ATH... getting pushed down after Elon's dreams came true... seriously... how is it possible to not question this belief?... and then just post it as if anyone that doesn't believe it is a fool... when the stock has clearly proven this simplicity... wrong.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

what is the point of posting... "short squeeze coming... $1000 easy"?

this stock has already proven this wrong... for 3 years people have been saying this stuff... and it's sitting 35% under the ATH... getting pushed down after Elon's dreams came true... seriously... how is it possible to not question this belief?... and then just post it as if anyone that doesn't believe it is a fool... when the stock has clearly proven this simplicity... wrong.

Well you have certainly been right on the direction of the stock. I like right. Do you believe the stock will ever turn around or Elon's dream is just that? Serious question. It is of interest to me. Thanks. Edit: I would certainly respect you if you put your money where your mouth is. Do you have a large short position?

 

[Yonki]

If you click on the "Positions" tab, you should see a small text link "Loaned Securities" at the bottom, under "Related Links", which will give you the summary page, including the current interest rate (0.50% today). This is only available on the web page, not the mobile app. You can also deduce what's loaned out from the Positions screen since it will show loaned shares as cash by not labeling them as margin. My TSLA shares were returned some time in the last week or two and then loaned out again this week. My SCTY shares have remained out on loan throughout, though down to 4% interest rate, a far cry from the incredible 45+% a couple of months ago!

Thanks! It's all there, just as you described (including the 0.5% rate :-/ ).

 

[TMSE]

what is the point of posting... "short squeeze coming... $1000 easy"?

this stock has already proven this wrong... for 3 years people have been saying this stuff... and it's sitting 35% under the ATH... getting pushed down after Elon's dreams came true... seriously... how is it possible to not question this belief?... and then just post it as if anyone that doesn't believe it is a fool... when the stock has clearly proven this simplicity... wrong.

Forget TSLA. Let us pretend you are an investment genius; now tell us your ideas short term/long term, It can be any stock. You can't name any, can you?

 

[Yuri_G]

what is the point of posting... "short squeeze coming... $1000 easy"?

this stock has already proven this wrong... for 3 years people have been saying this stuff... and it's sitting 35% under the ATH... getting pushed down after Elon's dreams came true... seriously... how is it possible to not question this belief?... and then just post it as if anyone that doesn't believe it is a fool... when the stock has clearly proven this simplicity... wrong.

The only reason you're still here is because the stock price has been stuck in a small range for months. Nothing says the market has priced TSLA rationally. We'll see if you're still here when there is a major breakout and there is irrational exuberance instead of disbelief. You are not some lone genius that has discovered the company is a sham. The belief has been a common one throughout Tesla's history and everyone holding it has been dead wrong so far.

 

[SPadival]

GM delays "M3 killer" aka LG Bolt compliance car for a year and not a squeak from the "analysts" and the shorts. What's going on?

 

[Turing]

Anyone know when NHTSA safety ratings come out for the MX?

 

[Fallenone]

Something to consider about: there were about 12 m of shares voted against the merger. Now they face two choices. Stick with a deal they don't like, or sell their shares. Of course they can choose #1 but we need to seriously consider the effect of #2 may have on stock price. In Q3 there were a little over 11 m of shares sold by institutions and could have been majorly responsible for the 235-200 drop. Now with the 12 m of shares disliking the outcome, I suspect there will still be significant selling pressure from longs, not shorts, for the next few months.

 

[madodel]

GM delays "M3 killer" aka LG Bolt compliance car for a year and not a squeak from the "analysts" and the shorts. What's going on?

GM is doomed. Sell, Sell, Sell.

 

[mmd]

GM delays "M3 killer" aka LG Bolt compliance car for a year and not a squeak from the "analysts" and the shorts. What's going on?

GM's valuation is not based on how many Bolts they will sell this year or next year or the year after. They will sell it where they think it has most returns: the ZEV states. To do anything else won't be good business. If anyone wants it really really bad, they can order it from Costco anywhere, or buy it in CA. They already proved that they can make it if they need to. There is practically no reason for them to flood the market with Bolts and depress their profit margins. If GM shares enjoyed the same P/E multiple as Tesla, then your point would be somewhat valid

Solar roof pricing: Just noticed this Bloomberg article published yesterday. The author agrees with the very high cost estimate of the solar roof. My estimate of $8-$12 /sq ft. now seems low. So this is another solution for the 0.1 percenters, like @FredTMC
No, cheap asphalt is pretty flexible and doesn't cost too much to transport. I've seen bundles of these lying around in Home Depot without any damage. Elon is talking about slate and terra cotta as the "normal" roofs; the roofs he "normally" sees in his own neighborhood.

Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof

Make no mistake: The new shingles will still be a premium product, at least when they first roll out. The terra cotta and slate roofs Tesla mimicked are among the most expensive roofing materials on the market—costing as much as 20 times more than cheap asphalt shingles.

 

[mmd]

Something to consider about: there were about 12 m of shares voted against the merger. Now they face two choices. Stick with a deal they don't like, or sell their shares. Of course they can choose #1 but we need to seriously consider the effect of #2 may have on stock price. In Q3 there were a little over 11 m of shares sold by institutions and could have been majorly responsible for the 235-200 drop. Now with the 12 m of shares disliking the outcome, I suspect there will still be significant selling pressure from longs, not shorts, for the next few months.

Good point. This has occurred to me yesterday. But I thought, many of those probably already sold by now. The record date was quite a few weeks earlier. But who knows?

 

[Fallenone]

Good point. This has occurred to me yesterday. But I thought, many of those probably already sold by now. The record date was quite a few weeks earlier. But who knows?

Yeh, the further drop from 200 to now could be the continuation of big holders selling their shares. Maybe the "dislike" shares now is less than 10 m or something. But agree, who knows?

 

[dennis]

GM's valuation is not based on how many Bolts they will sell this year or next year or the year after. They will sell it where they think it has most returns: the ZEV states. To do anything else won't be good business. If anyone wants it really really bad, they can order it from Costco anywhere, or buy it in CA. They already proved that they can make it if they need to. There is practically no reason for them to flood the market with Bolts and depress their profit margins.

GM takes a $15K Chevy Sonic, removes the ICE components, bolts in an LG battery and drivetrain, and sells it for $37,500. If that depresses their profit margins they must be a "really bad negotiator". Explain that.

 

[MitchJi]

Yeh, the further drop from 200 to now could be the continuation of big holders selling their shares. Maybe the "dislike" shares now is less than 10 m or something. But agree, who knows?

I big institutions didn't like the merger they would have voted against the merger or bailed already.