Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Green Pete]

250

Wow. I was thinking that's where a squeeze would take it. Where you think it's going to go from 250?

 

[WarpedOne]

It is not so much about how high as it is about for how long.
It will be much scarier to shorts if there ain't no more +$5 daily drops, only relentless rise, no matter how slow.
Those big daily drops give them confidence that war is not yet lost and they continue to short.

When they finally capitulate en-masse, TSLA will double or triple.

 

[tinm]

Considering how many people were fooled by headlines during the election and totally got things wrong, the press is likely to try and be more accurate this time.

Is your position that President-Elect Trump will prosecute Clinton and destroy all efforts towards minimizing climate change?

My position is that investors should not count on any news about this individual's "position" on things relevant to Tesla like climate change. I won't say more because this isn't the thread for this kind of discussion. Just don't be fooled by this master con-man.

 

[winfield100]

Anyone care to venture a guess on how many square miles of land operations like this consume?

somewhere in the area of 54,000 square miles (about 140,000 sq kilometers)

 

[techmaven]

I think you may be missing the forest for the trees. The ABL creditors are protected, buyers of new debt are left to pick up the crumbs if the grandiose plans go off the rails. The crumbs will be after the ABL creditors are made whole, and the Trustee(s) and attorneys on both sides are compensated plus all their consultants.

Ah, talking about forest from the trees. You are criticizing the fact that the Asset Backed Line is backed by... wait for it... inventory assets? And certainly, at 62% of the book value, there's already a lot of write down. Out of the $1 billion ABL, there's $792 million in finished goods inventory and service parts of $130 million. We're talking about a company that has $11 billion in assets outside of that, and roughly $1 billion invested in Nevada (end of Q4). So that's $10 billion in crumbs apparently.

Panasonic is in the cat bird's seat. (it was not "a change in terms in the 10-Q," just a fuller disclosure).

Ah, not really... Panasonic is just making sure their investment will pay off. Tesla is the one that will garner most of the benefit.

 

[traxila]

Wow. I was thinking that's where a squeeze would take it. Where you think it's going to go from 250?

I assume you are referring to professional shorts who do not scare easily. In order for them to really get caught with their pants down u need a BIG move (20% or more) in short order. They are experts at hedging and reestablishing positions at key technical points. They have to be overwhelmed with a SP move. I doubt that this is going to happen here like it did when TSLA skyrocketed off of 30 and cleared 200. They did really get burnt there and they are still furious about it as you can probably tell.

I do believe that TSLA will grind up steadily ever higher. But it will be volatile and opportunities will abound for both bull and bear traders. Smart shorts will never go away.

 

[Vitold]

Reuters: Trump Softens Position on Climate Change...

Link: Trump softens position on climate change, Clinton investigation

I'm waiting for Trump to be branded a flip-flopper on this topic. I'm surprised no one has asked why he appointed climate-change denier to EPA.

Back on topic I think today we had SCTY short covering which probably will last till end of the week.

 

[SteveG3]

Don't know if it was posted in this thread, but Bloomberg had an article out earlier today about Elon Musk and his companies being trolled. The article reflected some digging they'd done involving a nonexistent person "authoring" a critical article posted under various titles on websites, an organization sponsoring critical commentary declining to reveal the sources of funding, Keefs barrage of reports to NHTSA of what he'd apparently like to see in photos of Teslas that have crashed.

I found the article on the Yahoo Finance news feed for TSLA. Stock had quite a strong day. Now I don't find the article there anymore. Hmm

 

[generalenthu]

somewhere in the area of 54,000 square miles (about 140,000 sq kilometers)

I believe Tesla should spend some money and advertise in the major newspapers the kind of destruction the fossil fuel industry is causing. In addition to raising awareness, this would create an environment where the media would not need to report on Tesla with a negative slant. The products themselves need no advertising.

 

[winfield100]

Don't know if it was posted in this thread, but Bloomberg had an article out earlier today about Elon Musk and his companies being trolled. The article reflected some digging they'd done involving a nonexistent person "authoring" a critical article posted under various titles on websites, an organization sponsoring critical commentary declining to reveal the sources of funding, Keefs barrage of reports to NHTSA of what he'd apparently like to see in photos of Teslas that have crashed.

I found the article on the Yahoo Finance news feed for TSLA. Stock had quite a strong day. Now I don't find the article there anymore. Hmm

and an article on SA by Spiegal http://seekingalpha.com/article/4025612-teslas-model-3-base-price-will-15000-higher-musk-claims full of "my opinion this and my opinion that.."

 

[Driver Dave]

and an article on SA by Spiegal

If you pretty much just make up stuff about stuff you don't know, does it qualify as fake news?

 

[dennis]

Lets recap. You are saying and/or implying:
- Tesla is not shipping a whole product TODAY since they haven't delivered on the "ability to charge it" (hint: you can charge it at home with a product they sell that plugs into an outlet).
- Only people who have a roof and get a battery can get a whole product from Tesla
- That for them to cross the chasm and get to mass market , they need to offer something that not even the early innovators today are buying from them. (hint: go back to the book and see why that makes no sense)

Stop being so obtuse. Virtually no one charges their model S on 110 V so you have to install a new circuit. That means you have to deal with a third-party because Tessa doesn't supply electricians or general contractors to pull the permit and install the 240 V circuit. That is an obstacle in expanding to less adventurous buyers that is remedied with the Solar City installation personnel.

There is another whole product which is integrated solar panels or roof tiles, inverter and battery storage, with a single source for product, installation and after sales support. The merged Tesla can provide that and thus penetrate deeper into the available market.

A consumer can choose to buy either or both of these two whole products but neither is a prerequisite for the other. It is more convenient for them to buy both from Tesla than from other sources if they are interested in both. Contrast this with the consumer who wants to "go green" and walks into a Chevy dealer...

And no, I don't need to reread the book. I lived it as an executive in 3 startup companies, 2 of which went public.

 

[brian45011]

Ah, talking about forest from the trees. You are criticizing the fact that the Asset Backed Line is backed by... wait for it... inventory assets? And certainly, at 62% of the book value, there's already a lot of write down. Out of the $1 billion ABL, there's $792 million in finished goods inventory and service parts of $130 million. We're talking about a company that has $11 billion in assets outside of that, and roughly $1 billion invested in Nevada (end of Q4). So that's $10 billion in crumbs apparently.



Ah, not really... Panasonic is just making sure their investment will pay off. Tesla is the one that will garner most of the benefit.

No. No criticism of the ABL creditors, they are well protected. The new lenders who buy the putative "next bond offering" not so much. Looking at assets is meaningless without considering liabilities. Shareholder equity is just $2.7 billion, but much of that results from the bifurcation related to the 2018, 2019, and 2021 convertible notes. The accumulated deficit is $2.9 billion

I concur. Panasonic is guaranteed a return of and a return on their investment; The 10Q states "we have incurred $608.4 million for our Gigafactory as of September 30,2016." That investment is encumbered by Panasonic's rights under the lease. Plus NV has clawbacks. Tesla must execute "flawlessly" to garner most of the benefit.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Don't know if it was posted in this thread, but Bloomberg had an article out earlier today about Elon Musk and his companies being trolled. The article reflected some digging they'd done involving a nonexistent person "authoring" a critical article posted under various titles on websites, an organization sponsoring critical commentary declining to reveal the sources of funding, Keefs barrage of reports to NHTSA of what he'd apparently like to see in photos of Teslas that have crashed.

I found the article on the Yahoo Finance news feed for TSLA. Stock had quite a strong day. Now I don't find the article there anymore. Hmm

It was: here, complete with direct Bloomberg link.

 

[brian45011]

Automotive GAAP GM, as Tesla reports it. If you feel like taking a stab at anything else please feel free.

I would be pretty surprised if Tesla doesn't report on Q4 automotive margins so I doubt your effort will be in vain.

Ok, 24% but that metric pales in comparison to more meaningful measures such as Net Income and Free Cash Flow. (both of which will, IMO, be far lower than what was reported in 3Q16--I'm not participating in the cheer-leading because I think SCTY is a millstone. YMMV.

 

[Value Ev]

Stop being so obtuse. Virtually no one charges their model S on 110 V so you have to install a new circuit. That means you have to deal with a third-party because Tessa doesn't supply electricians or general contractors to pull the permit and install the 240 V circuit. That is an obstacle in expanding to less adventurous buyers that is remedied with the Solar City installation personnel.

That still has nothing to do with the whole product of Solar+Battery+Car. You are trying to cherry pick by saying it is about the install and not the battery nor the panels.

I think is is hysterically funny that anyone believe that to in order to go main stream, Tesla needs to do $2B acquisition to get staff to pull a permit and do basic electrical work.

There is another whole product which is integrated solar panels or roof tiles, inverter and battery storage, with a single source for product, installation and after sales support. The merged Tesla can provide that and thus penetrate deeper into the available market.

Why do you believe that is a deeper penetration rather than a subset of the available market for Tesla cars? How many people are NOT buying Tesla's because they can't get solar and a battery all integrated? Or how many people are looking for solar and will then say "oh wait,I can now buy a car too!"?

Draw a Venn diagram. It will help your thinking.

Keep re-reading the book. The answers are in there.

 

[dennis]

I'm waiting for Trump to be branded a flip-flopper on this topic. I'm surprised no one has asked why he appointed climate-change denier to EPA.

Trump has not appointed anyone to the EPA. The person you are referring to is just leading his transition team in that area.

 

[techmaven]

No. No criticism of the ABL creditors, they are well protected. The new lenders who buy the putative "next bond offering" not so much. Looking at assets is meaningless without considering liabilities. Shareholder equity is just $2.7 billion, but much of that results from the bifurcation related to the 2018, 2019, and 2021 convertible notes. The accumulated deficit is $2.9 billion

I concur. Panasonic is guaranteed a return of and a return on their investment; The 10Q states "we have incurred $608.4 million for our Gigafactory as of September 30,2016." That investment is encumbered by Panasonic's rights under the lease. Plus NV has clawbacks. Tesla must execute "flawlessly" to garner most of the benefit.

Tesla's financials are in stronger shape now than the previous times they raised money. Tesla is a better market position on both the automotive and energy sides. We will see if they can continue to have positive cash flow from operations.

In any case, flawlessly? I've seen that tripe before. Again, you don't know the timing of their obligations and Panasonic wants Tesla to succeed. And flawlessly... hmm. So just how much does Tesla have to ship for you to consider it flawless? How many Model 3s? How much Tesla Energy product?

 

[dennis]

That still has nothing to do with the whole product of Solar+Battery+Car. You are trying to cherry pick by saying it is about the install and not the battery nor the panels.

I think is is hysterically funny that anyone believe that to in order to go main stream, Tesla needs to do $2B acquisition to get staff to pull a permit and do basic electrical work.



Why do you believe that is a deeper penetration rather than a subset of the available market for Tesla cars? How many people are NOT buying Tesla's because they can't get solar and a battery all integrated? Or how many people are looking for solar and will then say "oh wait,I can now buy a car too!"?

Draw a Venn diagram. It will help your thinking.

Keep re-reading the book. The answers are in there.

Oh FFS I was talking about one of the many benefits of the acquisition, not trying to justify the $2B purchase price. Done with clogging this thread responding to your deliberate misinterpretations of my posts.

 

[3Victoria]

Why do people keeping tilting against windmills? Waste of time.