Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JBRR]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/us/politics/trump-new-york-times-interview-transcript.html?_r=0

Relevant to forming an opinion on how Trump sees climate and value of US jobs.
(soft paywall - smart people can figure out how to circumvent)

 

[Gtoffo]

Wow. Just wow.

And Adam Jonas is 'in the know' around Wall Street. This report truly shows how little faith they all have in Elon et. al.

The 'Bull case' that AJ lies out is extremely bearish. $2.3 bil market cap for Tesla Energy is the bull case, $0 for bear case. Unbelievable.

Either I'm way, way out to lunch, or they are. Guess time will tell. First principles tells me it ain't gonna be that hard to build a 'little Model S' (i.e. the 3) in volumes by 2018.

I agree. I think the way they structured the PT tells you they know that their targets are too conservative. They are just scared of exposing themselves or have some other agenda...

 

[mrdoubleb]

So essentially it all boils down to the M3 timeline being met and TE coming out of the blue. That`s the "stake" they are interested in - a couple of ERs with some small profit is a nice bonus but not a deal breaker.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

I still wonder if we could see some volatility from ETFs coming up. Below are the holdings of $TAN (Guggenheim Solar ETF):

View attachment 203048

Their stated investment objective is:

Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before the fund’s fees and expenses, of the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. TAN generally will invest in all of the securities comprising the index in proportion to their weightings in the index.

I wonder if they will own $TSLA after or have to dump all their converted shares on the open market?

Mike

And now... ($TAN top holdings)

 

[vgrinshpun]

An interesting trading today: it seems that there is some short covering is going on (red) alternating with the period of large drawdown (blue) that seem to coincide with some capping on the daily chart.

View attachment 203164

There were 440,953 shares available for shorting at 8:37am, interest 2.5%. Interesting that there was a drawdown of 25K shares, but also additional shares - 50K - were added to the pool.

 

[sunhelm]

A bit concerned about 4Q deliveries. Not much deliveries going on in November Model X deliveries thread. Tesla Model X November Tracker

Also, Elon looking into a Model S delay order in a tweet Twitter

Looks like a majority of deliveries are/will be stacked into the December time frame, with the holidays and possible winter storms, anyone else concerned the ~25K deliveries are at risk?

 

[brian45011]

again with the wave... like I said before... WHAT WAVE?... show me where on the balance sheet Tesla Energy's $400m contribution THIS YEAR is?

Tesla Energy Has 100,000 Orders For Battery Energy Storage System

"It seems that Tesla Energy is sold out through the end of 2016. In the fourth quarter, Tesla expects $40-45 million of revenues at gross margins of maybe 15%. Next year, quarterly revenues could be 10-times higher, reaching a few billion annually in 2017"

this is from statements made by Elon himself in the 2Q15 conference call.

"Service and other revenue increased $65.5 million, or 78%, to $149.7 million during the three months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2015, primarily due to an increase of $21.9 million in energy product sales, an increase of $21.2 million in pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase in maintenance service revenue of $13.6 million, and an increase of $10.0 million in sales of electric vehicle powertrain components and systems to other manufacturers. Service and other revenue increased $151.2 million, or 73%, to $358.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2015. The increase was related primarily to an increase of $59.7 million in pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $53.3 million in maintenance service revenue, and an increase of $47.0 million in energy product sales....

Cost of services and other revenue increased $68.1 million, or 89%, to $144.6 million during the three months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2015, primarily due to an increase of $20.1 million in cost of pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $23.3 million of energy related product cost of sale, and an increase of $18.8 million in cost to provide maintenance service. Cost of services and other revenue increased $146.0 million, or 73%, to $345.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2015. The increase in cost of services and other was driven primarily by an increase of $58.5 million in cost of pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $48.4 million in cost of energy product sales, and an increase of $42.4 million in cost to provide maintenance services.

Increases over the corresponding periods in 2015 are explained but Tesla had little if any TE sales (minor amount to SCTY) before 3Q15

.......Three month (3Q16)..1st Nine Months 2016
Rev....$21.9 MM.................$47.0 MM
COGS..$23.3 MM...............$48.4 MM
Gross....-$1.4 MM...............-$1.4MM
Profit

 

[vgrinshpun]

"Service and other revenue increased $65.5 million, or 78%, to $149.7 million during the three months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2015, primarily due to an increase of $21.9 million in energy product sales, an increase of $21.2 million in pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase in maintenance service revenue of $13.6 million, and an increase of $10.0 million in sales of electric vehicle powertrain components and systems to other manufacturers. Service and other revenue increased $151.2 million, or 73%, to $358.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2015. The increase was related primarily to an increase of $59.7 million in pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $53.3 million in maintenance service revenue, and an increase of $47.0 million in energy product sales....

Cost of services and other revenue increased $68.1 million, or 89%, to $144.6 million during the three months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2015, primarily due to an increase of $20.1 million in cost of pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $23.3 million of energy related product cost of sale, and an increase of $18.8 million in cost to provide maintenance service. Cost of services and other revenue increased $146.0 million, or 73%, to $345.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2015. The increase in cost of services and other was driven primarily by an increase of $58.5 million in cost of pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $48.4 million in cost of energy product sales, and an increase of $42.4 million in cost to provide maintenance services.

Increases over the corresponding periods in 2015 are explained but Tesla had little if any TE sales (minor amount to SCTY) before 3Q15

.......Three month (3Q16)..1st Nine Months 2016
Rev....$21.9 MM.................$47.0 MM
COGS..$23.3 MM...............$48.4 MM
Gross....-$1.4 MM...............-$1.4MM
Profit

I am wondering whether all of Tesla BES provided to SolarCity are cash sales or some kind of other PPA-type arrangement. We know that Kauai project is PPA as far as SolarCity is concerned. Whether Tesla provided BES for this project as a cash sale to SolarCity or not would greatly affect Revenues and Margins. It looks like we really don't have any insight into this.

 

[myusername]

"Service and other revenue increased $65.5 million, or 78%, to $149.7 million during the three months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2015, primarily due to an increase of $21.9 million in energy product sales, an increase of $21.2 million in pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase in maintenance service revenue of $13.6 million, and an increase of $10.0 million in sales of electric vehicle powertrain components and systems to other manufacturers. Service and other revenue increased $151.2 million, or 73%, to $358.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2015. The increase was related primarily to an increase of $59.7 million in pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $53.3 million in maintenance service revenue, and an increase of $47.0 million in energy product sales....

Cost of services and other revenue increased $68.1 million, or 89%, to $144.6 million during the three months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the three months ended September 30, 2015, primarily due to an increase of $20.1 million in cost of pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $23.3 million of energy related product cost of sale, and an increase of $18.8 million in cost to provide maintenance service. Cost of services and other revenue increased $146.0 million, or 73%, to $345.9 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2016 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2015. The increase in cost of services and other was driven primarily by an increase of $58.5 million in cost of pre-owned vehicle sales, an increase of $48.4 million in cost of energy product sales, and an increase of $42.4 million in cost to provide maintenance services.

Increases over the corresponding periods in 2015 are explained but Tesla had little if any TE sales (minor amount to SCTY) before 3Q15

.......Three month (3Q16)..1st Nine Months 2016
Rev....$21.9 MM.................$47.0 MM
COGS..$23.3 MM...............$48.4 MM
Gross....-$1.4 MM...............-$1.4MM
Profit

not sure what to take from this... i asked for $400m this year (as Elon stated in 2Q15) and I think you showed $70m so far with negative GMs... is that supposed to be impressive?... and if so, negatively or positively?

 

[neroden]

An interesting trading today: it seems that there is some short covering is going on (red) alternating with the period of large drawdown (blue) that seem to coincide with some capping on the daily chart.

The short covering may be SCTY shorts who don't want to be TSLA shorts. We should see a fair amount of that for a few days and then we'll be back to just the TSLA shorts operating.

 

[W84M3]

A bit concerned about 4Q deliveries. Not much deliveries going on in November Model X deliveries thread. Tesla Model X November Tracker

Also, Elon looking into a Model S delay order in a tweet Twitter

Looks like a majority of deliveries are/will be stacked into the December time frame, with the holidays and possible winter storms, anyone else concerned the ~25K deliveries are at risk?

I'm not - at all. Spreadsheets show VIN assignments of 15k for Model S & 10k for Model X already since the cut-off point for Q3 (160k Model S & 20k Model X). With these Q3 cut-off points we got close to the actual delivery number.

Now, it is true that there are a lot of VIN badges produced as inventory at the start of Q4 (ev-cpo website) but if Tesla can sell these, I would expect even beating the 25k guidance.

 

[neroden]

FWIW Schwab finally converted my SCTY to TSLA before market open this morning.

 

[brian45011]

If everything was so simple..

For the same strike price, 2019 LEAPS have much more extrinsic value than 2018 LEAPS.

not sure what to take from this... i asked for $400m this year (as Elon stated in 2Q15) and I think you showed $70m so far with negative GMs... is that supposed to be impressive?... and if so, negatively or positively?

Actually likely less than $50 MM. Just some quantitative info about the gestation period for the wave. See Tesla Time.

 

[neroden]

But do you see a Bid/Ask spread? If yes, which broker.

I have bid and ask prices at Schwab for the TSLA1 options.

Huge spread, mind you. But they're there.

P.S. I believe the rule is that new positions cannot be opened in TSLA1 (except by market makers), which is going to severely cramp liquidity.

 

[MP3Mike]

FWIW Schwab finally converted my SCTY to TSLA before market open this morning.

My shares at Pershing have been converted but not my shares at Capital One Investing...

 

[brian45011]

If everything was so simple..

For the same strike price, 2019 LEAPS have much more extrinsic value than 2018 LEAPS.

Paraphrasing article: "avoid negative news and Tesla can jump 20%."

Tesla Stock Is Trading At Critical Levels

Might be more credible with correct facts: "Tesla’s financials look quite ok. For its quarter ending June 30th, the company announced a positive EPS (earnings per share) as revenue truly exploded."

 

[sunhelm]

I'm not - at all. Spreadsheets show VIN assignments of 15k for Model S & 10k for Model X already since the cut-off point for Q3 (160k Model S & 20k Model X). With these Q3 cut-off points we got close to the actual delivery number.

Now, it is true that there are a lot of VIN badges produced as inventory at the start of Q4 (ev-cpo website) but if Tesla can sell these, I would expect even beating the 25k guidance.

VIN assignments do not necessarily convert to production for that quarter. VIN to me is more an indicator of the demand rate, which I am confident is still strong. So far, what I'm feeling based on my read is there's not that much going on in terms of deliveries for this month. As far as inventories, even ordering one would take approx. 3 weeks, even if it is close to your location.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla Barstow, CA supercharger was deliberately sabotaged by cutting power supply cables and removing breakers.

 

[Krugerrand]

"We continue to forecast a Model 3 launch at the very end of 2018 (more than 1 year later than company target) with 60k units in 2019 and 130k units in 2020."

That is interesting.

Nope, that's not interesting. That's usual humdrum 'We're still mad at Elon Musk for dissing us so we're going to screw with his SP any way and everyway we can'.

The interesting part will be when Tesla blows that prediction out of the water and Morgan Stanley has to backpedal. Will they choose the Trump strategy - deny with a big ole smirk on their face, then distract? 'We didn't say that! Look, squirrel!' Will they choose the about face, kiss and make up strategy offering Tesla a whole vault full of cash? Will they admit they were wrong, be gracious and go quietly into the night? 'We were wrong. Tesla did what we didn't think they could do. Good on them.'

No, that analysis isn't interesting. The interesting stuff is yet to come.

 

[Navin]

I stand by my call yesterday. Lets see how things play out but so far so good.