Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Turing]

China is slapping a 10 percent tax on cars like the Ferrari GTC4Lusso, Bentley Bentayga and Aston Martin DB9 in a bid to combat conspicuous consumption and promote more efficient vehicles.

Silver lining, upside for tesla in china. Shift wealthy towards zero emission luxury vehicles?

 

[Ulmo]

China is slapping a 10 percent tax on cars like the Ferrari GTC4Lusso, Bentley Bentayga and Aston Martin DB9 in a bid to combat conspicuous consumption and promote more efficient vehicles.

Silver lining, upside for tesla in china. Shift wealthy towards zero emission luxury vehicles?

Slapping 10%? I only wish 10% was considered a high tax here.

 

[winfield100]

Sorry got to repeat per VADA "Strap on whatever it takes..." REALLY?? LMAO. Guess the dealers are used to sending customers to the ice block after a visit.

tried using "wayback machine" to see if movie archived, nothing so far, but someone has it somewhere

 

[Turing]

Slapping 10%? I only wish 10% was considered a high tax here.

This is on top of import taxes, right?

 

[Bgarret]

Perhaps what he had to say could upset Bloomberg's advertisers. Tesla does no media advertising. Advertising is the lifeblood of the media.

Curt, you would be near the bottom of the list of people I would correct, especially as a former journalist, but there is no longer any media (with the exception of Fred Lambert).....just infotainment.

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA has been tracking the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) while holding up slightly better. Indeed the line seems to have been drawn with solid support at the strike price of $187.50 which marked a double bottom today. A lift from here could induce much short covering and purchases from longs who have been holding back while awaiting the start of a rise. Once the media stop repeating outdated and inaccurate or already addressed FUD, we could see a substantial rally into early next year.

There is data available today that suggests that shorts may indeed be starting to cover. This chart from www.shortanalytics.com (2nd from the top) shows that the percentage of TSLA trading done by shorts increased to 65% today. Historically, the more TSLA stock price drops in a day, the higher the percentage of shorts in the equation and the higher the stock price rises, the higher the percentage of longs. What's so interesting about the 65% number is not only that it is so high, but also how it compares with yesterday, when we saw TSLA lose over $6 and short percentage was 61%. Think about it, TSLA traded almost even today and yet the percentage of transactions performed by shorts was way up at 65%, when you'd expect something closer to 50% (see Nov 21 data on the chart). The reasonable conclusion? Shorts made up a significant percentage of the buyers today because you can't get these numbers if only longs are buying.

Today is the first day since I've been following this chart that I've seen evidence of shorts buying TSLA to close positions. We really ought to find out if the conversions of SCTY short shares to TSLA short shares is happening now, because that event would help explain what's going on. If the conversions aren't happening yet, then one conclusion is even more bullish, which is that classic TSLA shorts are starting to cover. The least bullish answer would be that the TSLA shorts who were buying today were the same shorts who sold into new positions yesterday and they're taking some profits today.

Nonetheless, since Nov 17 when the SCTY merger went through, I have seen only one day (yesterday) when the shorts showed the same ability to really steer TSLA stock price using creative selling techniques. Every other day, including today, we've seen the techniques employed by the shorts yielding leaner results for them. Further, during the past two weeks the shorts have taken possession of well more than $400 million worth of Tesla stock and all their efforts have only resulted in TSLA being priced similarly today to the price it closed on Nov 17, before the merger announcement.

 

[Value Ev]

When do you think this will happen, Curt? -- that the media will stop repeating outdated and inaccurate or already addressed FUD? In the three plus years, that I have followed Tesla, I have not seen signs of this stopping anytime soon. On the contrary, the resentful blizzard of FUD, misinfo, and vitriol seems to have been steadily growing, with an apparently coordinated increase in volume and intensity over the last few months.

Well, even here, rather than cheering on the increase in choice of EVs and the growth of the market, there are people who throw out garbage statements like "You'd need to be an idiot to choose a Bolt, instead of an M3."

So It probably will never change as long as there are people with that type of attitude and venon spewing.

More EV's, regardless of who makes them, is good for the planet.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Here is Spiegel's presentation. No longer worried. He had nothing new in there. I thought his presentation would be way better than this based on Tilson's comments yesterday http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf

 

[Curt Renz]

Here is Spiegel's presentation. No longer worried. He had nothing new in there. I thought his presentation would be way better than this based on Tilson's comments yesterday http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf

Of course Elon has always maintained that he does not envision Tesla monopolizing the automobile industry. He said he wanted to provoke competitors to produce plug-in electric cars. That could cause electric cars to become mainstream. Elon anticipated Tesla then obtaining a reasonably sized slice of a huge pie. That would be a major accomplishment for a startup in a long established capital intensive industry. Spiegel merely demonstrated that the industry is headed in the direction of Elon's plan.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Of course Elon has always maintained that he does not envision Tesla monopolizing the automobile industry. He said he wanted to provoke competitors to produce plug-in electric cars. That could cause electric cars to become mainstream. Elon anticipated Tesla then obtaining a reasonably sized slice of a huge pie. That would be a major accomplishment for a startup in a long established capital intensive industry. Spiegel merely demonstrated that the industry is headed in the direction of Elon's plan.

Exactly what I was thinking Curt. The majority of it was "there will be more competition." Big deal.

 

[GBleck]

Here is Spiegel's presentation. No longer worried. He had nothing new in there. I thought his presentation would be way better than this based on Tilson's comments yesterday http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf

His look competition sections are amusing.

 

[ZsoZso]

Of course Elon has always maintained that he does not envision Tesla monopolizing the automobile industry. He said he wanted to provoke competitors to produce plug-in electric cars. That could cause electric cars to become mainstream. Elon anticipated Tesla then obtaining a reasonably sized slice of a huge pie. That would be a major accomplishment for a startup in a long established capital intensive industry. Spiegel merely demonstrated that the industry is headed in the direction of Elon's plan.

You are making a good point, I just wanted to make a very small nit-picky comment on the highlighted phrase above: when one is being dragged in a direction kicking and screaming, I would not call that "heading" in said direction, as the head usually points the other direction when one is being dragged...

 

[3Victoria]

Here is Spiegel's presentation. No longer worried. He had nothing new in there. I thought his presentation would be way better than this based on Tilson's comments yesterday http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf

His whole presentation an exhaustive (actually exhausting, I am glad I wasn't there) list of vaporware announcements. I agree, even if these come to fruition, the market is big enough for Tesla to get a respectable slice. However, I doubt 10% of these will proceed, and by the time they arrive Tesla will be that much ahead of them. Overall a pretty piss poor presentation.

 

[Curt Renz]

Exactly what I was thinking Curt. The majority of it was "there will be more competition." Big deal.

It was Spiegel's hyperbolic discussion of competition that Tilson said tempted him to try shorting Tesla again. Nevertheless, Tilson said he's learned more about Musk and the risks of fighting him from actual experience and reading Elon's biography.

Meanwhile, for those concerned about a lack of reports about Ron Baron's comments at the Robin Hood Conference, the important thing is that the "legends" heard him. They manage the funds that are the primary owners or potential owners of Tesla. The Baron Funds have large positions in Tesla, so I expect that Baron effectively refuted Spiegel's arguments.

 

[techmaven]

Here is Spiegel's presentation. No longer worried. He had nothing new in there. I thought his presentation would be way better than this based on Tilson's comments yesterday http://www.tilsonfunds.com/TSLA-Spiegel-RH16.pdf

Wow, he really has nothing. Really no discussion of the financials in a meaningful way. I would have thought a Wall Street person would have a much more meaningful discussion on opex, capex, upcoming cash needs, etc. Or discussion on the battery costs, the amount of production capacity, the platform development costs, and so forth. This was a basically a poorly done vaporware news aggregation.

 

[hacer]

I found that a little odd also. 9k is a serious amount of money on a 38k car. I hope that someone provides more information on this to support it or come up with a different number.

It could be that they amortized the R&D against the 30k expected deliveries, but that is not the right comparison either.

GM probably is amortizing R&D against the expected small deliveries. That is exactly what they did with EV1 in order to "prove" to CARB that their targets were impossible. So they probably want to make the same case now. They may as well because they aren't going to have large production anyway.

 

[Off Shore]

Wow, he really has nothing. Really no discussion of the financials in a meaningful way. I would have thought a Wall Street person would have a much more meaningful discussion on opex, capex, upcoming cash needs, etc. Or discussion on the battery costs, the amount of production capacity, the platform development costs, and so forth. This was a basically a poorly done vaporware news aggregation.

Commissioned hit piece?

 

[JRP3]

tried using "wayback machine" to see if movie archived, nothing so far, but someone has it somewhere

Here you go, download link: OneDrive

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Wow, he really has nothing. Really no discussion of the financials in a meaningful way. I would have thought a Wall Street person would have a much more meaningful discussion on opex, capex, upcoming cash needs, etc. Or discussion on the battery costs, the amount of production capacity, the platform development costs, and so forth. This was a basically a poorly done vaporware news aggregation.

Seriously, the presentation wouldn't even impress my 11 year old math whiz. No substance at all. And to think I was scared. I need to give my head a shake.

 

[Curt Renz]

Commissioned hit piece?

Unlikely, in my opinion. Spiegel and his a few million dollars "hedge fund" (possibly mainly his own and relatives'/friends' money) have long been short Tesla. He began providing negative comments about Tesla at Seeking Alpha on the day of Tesla's IPO in 2010. For years he has been relentlessly tweeting against Tesla and Elon. It appears to be a huge obsession for him. Since he's short Tesla shares, perhaps greatly so, it may be understandable that he seeks to find outlets where his voice can be amplified. He's been good at that. Apparently some in the news media and those organizing conferences simply assume that his hedge fund credential carries some weight.