Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Mike Smith]

So Lucinda Shen at Fortune is saying:

"Was Tesla Motors cooking its books to look like it has more cash?
The Securities and Exchange Commission seems to think Tesla might have been."

Apparently she doesn't know what 'cooking the books' entails, or that there's a difference between cash and earnings. What a slanderous embarrassment. This stuff hurts investors.

The SEC Called Out Tesla for "Individually Tailored" Earnings Figures

 

[RobStark]

I don't believe that they are losing $9k on the Bolt. The battery costs them about $12k. They make money on similar ICE's (sonic and Cruz) at about $16k. Except for the battery it's cheaper to produce EV's than ICE's. The numbers don't add up.

GM does not make money on Sonic and Cruz at $16k. They lose money.

They sell them to meet CAFE obligations in order to sell full size pickups and SUVs. Here they make $10k-$50k( loaded Escalade Platinum) per unit.

I guess you could call them ICE compliance vehicles.

 

[Jayjs20]

Well, the SP sure went no where today.

If you look at TSLA, FB, google and amazon, they all share an oddly similar pattern today, other than a harder dip in the morning for TSLA that's probably due to short selling. Personally, I feel that a day of horizontal trading is good for a stock after a deep red day to suggest that the hard decline may be over.

 

[MitchJi]

GM does not make money on Sonic and Cruz at $16k. They lose money.

They sell them to meet CAFE obligations in order to sell full size pickups and SUVs. Here they make $10k-$50k( loaded Escalade Platinum) per unit.

I guess you could call them ICE compliance vehicles.

And the Buick Encore that @techmaven referred to?

I going to stop replying to this topic. I believe it's pie-in-the-sky investing information, but if you want to believe it feel free.

 

[3Victoria]

So Lucinda Shen at Fortune is saying:

"Was Tesla Motors cooking its books to look like it has more cash?
The Securities and Exchange Commission seems to think Tesla might have been."

Apparently she doesn't know what 'cooking the books' entails, or that there's a difference between cash and earnings. What a slanderous embarrassment. This stuff hurts investors.

The SEC Called Out Tesla for "Individually Tailored" Earnings Figures

Is there no way to call her out? I do not feel that I am in a position to do that, but surely there are others with the credentials to call her bluff. This is old and inconsequential news.

 

[phil0909]

It's also factually incorrect to write the title in the present tense. It should say TOOK Tesla to task. Obvious attempt to make the story seem more exciting at the cost of misinforming readers. Shameful.

After the Cubs beat the Indians, the headline in the Chicago Tribune was "Cubs Win World Series." But - get this! - the paper came out the day AFTER the Series had already ended!!! Those bastards at the Tribune were making an obvious attempt to make the story seem more exciting at the cost of misinforming their readers! Big factual error - they should have used the past tense, e.g. Cubs WON Series. What a disgrace!

Calm down, Mike, you'll live longer. Headlines have been written in the present tense for centuries.

 

[Chop110]

Well, the SP sure went no where today.

If you look at TSLA, FB, google and amazon, they all share an oddly similar pattern today, other than a harder dip in the morning for TSLA that's probably due to short selling. Personally, I feel that a day of horizontal trading is good for a stock after a deep red day to suggest that the hard decline may be over.

Don't count out the short seller hammer within the last twenty minutes of trading.

 

[techmaven]

Clearly that's an incorrect assumption!

And you are not includling the cost of the exhaust, fuel lines and gas tank, the smog related stuff etc,

Infotainment system and cellular connectivity?! Mouse nuts.

Infotainment system and its connection as well as the back end services is built by LG for the Bolt. The unit cost amortization, hardware and software is across 30k to 50k units. The Tesla media control unit cost was likely hideous... on the order of $3,000-4,000 per unit in the first year. These days, that's likely down substantially, but I would bet it's still $1.25k in costs even with a 4 year old Tegra CPU driving it. Unit volumes are too low.

 

[MikeC]

After the Cubs beat the Indians, the headline in the Chicago Tribune was "Cubs Win World Series." But - get this! - the paper came out the day AFTER the Series had already ended!!! Those bastards at the Tribune were making an obvious attempt to make the story seem more exciting at the cost of misinforming their readers! Big factual error - they should have used the past tense, e.g. Cubs WON Series. What a disgrace!

Calm down, Mike, you'll live longer. Headlines have been written in the present tense for centuries.

Except what you won't see is a headline saying, "Cubs Win World Series," in the present tense - a month and a half after it actually happened.

There's pretty obviously a difference between printing a headline in the present tense less than 24 hours after it occurred with the next edition of the paper compared to reporting on a 45-day old event like it just happened.

 

[RobStark]

And the Buick Encore that @techmaven referred to?

I going to stop replying to this topic. I believe it's pie-in-the-sky investing information, but if you want to believe it feel free.

The Buick Encore probably does make money at a starting price of $23k. A little bit.

That is $7k more than the base Sonic you referenced. That is not an insignificant amount of money.

Doesn't change the fact that at least 70% of GM's profits are from full sized pickups and SUVs.

You are also free to believe that GM makes money on its compliance vehicles that dealers don't/refuse to stock in the same numbers as pickups and full size SUVs nationwide because GM/Dealers don't want to make more money.

 

[brian45011]

Is it a fact?

It's the opinion of David Welch and John Lippert who authored the Bloomberg article. It's validity depends on one's perspective. If GM earns 4 ZEV credits/Bolt, and the fine for insufficient ZEV credits is $5,000/ credit (plus additional GHG/CAFE benefits) it might just be considered regulatory compliance.

Comparing an estimated loss at the net income level with the estimated margin at the gross profit level may mislead those who do not understand the differences in those parameters.

 

[Curt Renz]

Well, the SP sure went no where today.

If you look at TSLA, FB, google and amazon, they all share an oddly similar pattern today, other than a harder dip in the morning for TSLA that's probably due to short selling. Personally, I feel that a day of horizontal trading is good for a stock after a deep red day to suggest that the hard decline may be over.

Today TSLA has been tracking the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) while holding up slightly better. Indeed the line seems to have been drawn with solid support at the strike price of $187.50 which marked a double bottom today. A lift from here could induce much short covering and purchases from longs who have been holding back while awaiting the start of a rise. Once the media stop repeating outdated and inaccurate or already addressed FUD, we could see a substantial rally into early next year.

 

[Chop110]

Stand by for short hammer...


EDIT
Which never came. Cautiously optimistic that we reached the bottom. 4QR sales call cannot get here soon enough.

 

[Calvin.K]

Looks like there was some buying into the close! might get a green open tomorrow (and hold it)

 

[racer26]

QQQ and NASDAQ overall down about 1%, TSLA was tracking it for much of the day, until TSLA did a hard about face with about 15 minutes to go in the day to close down just 0.09%

 

[GBleck]

One-way range ...

Nope the Audi is solar powered with almost unlimited range at what I would assume to be a very slow top speed.

 

[ggies07]

Report: How Much Does a Solar PV System Cost in 2016?

Prices are going down, but it's still that damn soft cost that is really holding this transition back. Let's hope Tesla will be able to lower them substantially by having their products in the stores now.

• The price drops in the utility market are the greatest -- 17.4 percent for fixed-tilt and 14.9 percent for single-axis tracking
• On average, labor costs in each market segment have decreased by at least $0.01/Wdc from H1 to H2 2016
• Almost all of the pricing change in the commercial market came from modules (this speaks to the persistent challenge of soft costs in the commercial PV market)
• Residential solar prices have fallen 8.6 percent in the same period

 

[BornToFly]

At this point, I just don't think the SP is going anywhere until the end of the month when analysts start predicting Q4 deliveries. Longs won't let the stock go below 185 (because it is too good a deal below that number), and shorts won't let it go over 195. There aren't enough new longs willing to buy in now thanks to all the FUD articles that are all over the finance news feeds each day trying to bring TSLA down. Even after the Q4 numbers are out, it may not be until the earnings call with guidance for 2017 (and an update on Model 3 time table) that more longs pile on.

 

[Value Ev]

After the Cubs beat the Indians, the headline in the Chicago Tribune was "Cubs Win World Series." But - get this! - the paper came out the day AFTER the Series had already ended!!! Those bastards at the Tribune were making an obvious attempt to make the story seem more exciting at the cost of misinforming their readers! Big factual error - they should have used the past tense, e.g. Cubs WON Series. What a disgrace!

Calm down, Mike, you'll live longer. Headlines have been written in the present tense for centuries.

Excellent point. There are standard conventions and in the first line it makes it clear what the timing is. This isn't a conspiracy.

Here is another example of that: Elon Musk Emails Tesla Employees - Pushes For Q3 Profitability To Silence Naysayers

Didn't say "emailed"

Or Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s August 29 Email To Employees Calls For 3rd Quarter Rally For Profitability (Full Email Text)

Didn't say "called"

etc. etc.

 

[Value Ev]

At this point, I just don't think the SP is going anywhere until the end of the month when analysts start predicting Q4 deliveries.

But generally isn't that the case for almost all stocks with such high market caps? With no substantial news or macro events, there is nothing to drive a substantial shift in the stock price either up or down. Stocks settles in a relative narrow trading range according to their beta.