Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SBenson]

Rest of the wall street is not much different.

Reported Q3 Rev - 2.298B
Consensus estimate for Q4 revenue - 2.292B
Thus, projected 2016 H2 revenue - 4.59B
Annualised run rate - 9.18B

Consensus estimate for 2017 revenue - 9.494B

Meaning 3.4% is the expected growth from current run rate.

With expectations this low, I can't see anything but a surprise after surprise by the street. We should all be backing up the truck at this point.

 

[racer26]

The other crazy part is that nobody seems to notice that the MX was not a high priority. It was an opportunity to grab a more profit and market share by leveraging the MS technology. If delaying it meant they could ship more MS's than they thought, that was a good thing.

M3 is the entire basis of the business plan for Tesla. They understand they can't disappoint this time.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

He's an automotive guy, he doesn't understand the potential of the other Tesla businesses.

Which product would you concentrate on: one that is 45K or 5K if both are supply limited? Or essentially sold out for next 2 years or even more. The former will have 9x the impact on revenue.

I think the narrative/logic in the note now makes more sense.

BTW Thanks so much for posting the MS note.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Both are basically unknown values at this point because they are both approaching unprecedented territory. Seems like a good way to make a predictive statement without being wrong. Makes for less desirable headlines tho.

I guess he can't be wrong if he doesn't comment.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

(MS doesn't expect Model 3 delivery's in 2017)

View attachment 205107

And somehow they only expect 5,000 in 2018? Jonas has either lost his mind or is being told to be excessively conservative.

 

[WarpedOne]

to be excessively conservative.

This is not being conservative, this is being dishonest.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

seriously, how many times does this have to be brought up? Two different cars, designed two different ways.

The same person in charge...

 

[Green Pete]

I guess he can't be wrong if he doesn't comment.

Basically I think that sums it up. He's suggested tsla has significant upside. And admits there are things that could contribute to one but doesn't price them in. All things considered with the climate and the wildly unpredictable nature of the SP it's actually a prettt shining endorsement.

 

[Hogfighter]

Look at the chart that shows how often AJ issued a 'buy' recommendation while the stock was slowly declining. He's grown to be MUCH more conservative.

If Tesla Energy takes off in a meaningful way, 2017 could stand to be an incredible year.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Model 3 is designed with mass production and ease of production in mind. Nothing fancy falcon-wing at all. If the masses can understand enough to learn from Model X woes, then surely the mega minds at Tesla would too. I bet Tesla will surprise everyone when they start pumping these Model 3's out before end of 2017.

Adam Jonas doesn't include Model 3 production in 2017 estimates, nor does he take into account Gigafactory or Solar business in valuation and yet still ends up at $242 price target? That's a 25%+ upside potential from today's stock price of $192 on the car business alone, and the rest is gravy.

Oh, yeah, nothing fancy at all.
Except for new type of HUD that is good enough to replace instrument cluster, brand new glass technology, self driving, and car making money for you while you're sleeping. It's practically boring, all stuff off of the shelf...

 

[Mike Smith]

This is probably why Adam Jonas became so conservative about Tesla. I think he got a stern warning over this.

Tesla $1,900?

 

[Krugerrand]

seriously, how many times does this have to be brought up? Two different cars, designed two different ways.

At least one more time. Probably a lot more times. And likely until the end of time even AFTER the Model 3 launches on time, is how many more times it will have to be brought up.

Personally, I'm looking forward to an on time launch just to sugar on every naysayer's cornflakes.

 

[ggies07]

The same person in charge...

Who said he made mistakes and said M3 production will be different = shows inner growth of self. Time to kick ass and take names.

 

[Krugerrand]

On Another topic, the MS note estimates 5 million fleet miles a day with 1/3 being autonomous. It was my understanding that the cars are collecting data even with auto pilot off. I'll assume this is including the pre AP1 cars but the math doesn't seem correct, many more cars have been sold post AP1 correct?

I do believe you are correct. But hey, we should be happy they even acknowledged that many miles a day. They could have just as easily listed that a big fat goose egg too.

Let them be wrong, really wrong. The more wrong, the more *we* stand to gain.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Oh, yeah, nothing fancy at all.
Except for new type of HUD that is good enough to replace instrument cluster, brand new glass technology, self driving, and car making money for you while you're sleeping. It's practically boring, all stuff off of the shelf...

Exception to the Exception:

• HUD is true and tried technology, nothing extravagant, will probably appear on MS/MX before M3 launch
• the glass technology is already used in MS (new fixed glass roof)
• self driving hardware is being mass produced and put in every MS/MX leaving Fremont. The rest of self driving is software.
• Tesla Network is software product, M3 can be issued without it

Yes, all mentioned hardware is either already of the shelf, or will be well before end of 2017.

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh, yeah, nothing fancy at all.
Except for new type of HUD that is good enough to replace instrument cluster, brand new glass technology, self driving, and car making money for you while you're sleeping. It's practically boring, all stuff off of the shelf...

Nothing 'new' will appear on the Model 3 that doesn't first appear on the S and X. Right from the CEO's mouth. Relax.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Oh, yeah, nothing fancy at all.
Except for new type of HUD that is good enough to replace instrument cluster, brand new glass technology, self driving, and car making money for you while you're sleeping. It's practically boring, all stuff off of the shelf...

Keep in mind that Tesla is deploying a lot of this stuff on the Model S and Model X first.

The rear glass window on Model 3 appears to be a reversed version of the Model X overhead windshield. Autopilot 2.0 hardware with self driving: already being shipped on new Model S and Model X vehicles. The Tesla Network is not necessary to the deployment of Model 3.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'll comment later (maybe) on the energy policy shake-up possibilities, but for now, here is my last input on the 21-70 battery cooling discussion and since I'm commenting on it, I've no problem calling it On-Topic enough to stay in this thread.... You all are welcome to continue it.

• A 21 x 70 cylinder's side:bottom area is at a ratio of 13.33:1. That sidewall, then, presents a very large and tempting heat dispersal/diffusion agent, regardless of internal makeup.
• So, we'll soon see!

True fact but implied application could lead to wrong conclusion (unless this is your hint of why bottom cooling is better)

I am going to leave some food for thought, in pictures, as a puzzler of sorts...

 

[Drax7]

Elon knows his credibility is somewhat shattered with Wall Street.
He will give it his best to restore it, because it's a precondition for raising capital.
Getting model 3 on time is first priority.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes, I understand that he is expecting demand to be the bottleneck. I just don't buy that. Or can't believe that.

He is just throwing darts, like everyone else. We will see. Time will tell.

Many people outside of USA are being priced out of market for Tesla, due to strong dolar.
Wife just said 'are you insane?' when I showed her lowest priced spec-ed S60 I was considering at $98.6CAD (glass roof, metalic colour, next gen seats, cold package S60, that's all)