Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Tslynk67]

Surely such faster charging rates would only be for newer packs? Isn't it the case today that many SuC's are 145kWh capable, but are limited 125 or lower to preserve the longevity of the batteries?

On the other hand, I can imagine in 5 years to upgrade to a new battery pack for $10k, or whatever, would be a very attractive proposition and a potential new revenue-stream for Tesla, albeit a low-margin one.

 

[SebastianR]

For equivalency, Tesla could make a 125kWh battery, software limit it to 100kWh and the software limited 100kWh pack could be 100% charged in 10 minutes (with the >350kW supercharger). Thus qualifying for the "Fast fueling" credit. So one could get 300+ mile range in 10 minute charge time.

Yes, I know ZEV credits are things that Tesla should not be designing their cars around, but if they're going to increase the SuperCharger capacity, then it may not be a bad thing to build into the cars the capability to qualify. Money is money...

I like where this idea is going. And the big question would be: if a 10 minutes/100% car is later upgraded to a higher capacity but only being 30 minutes for 80% - the ZEV credits would not need to be refunded or would they?

Alternatively, Tesla could sell you a "increase capacity for up to 5x / year" upgrade also...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Few hours ago Tesla reached (quite literally)
the 3.5 billion milestone:
The Electric Road Trip

Of course, we don't know how that counter works, but I'm trying to keep track of the miles here:
Tesla miles Gdoc

As I asked in this post, I'd love to know if there are other entry points, because there's the chance we are a bit ahead of times, at least if we look at this picture:

The idea is that we have at least 3 classes of miles:

1. pure electric miles (ie. miles driven on a Tesla)
2. AP hardware miles (ie. miles driven on a Tesla with AP hardware)
   
3. AP miles (ie. miles with AP on)

Of course, each one is a subset of the former.

So 1 is right now at 3.5 billion. I'll try to update my poor gdoc when I get other data.
(Mod-edited to provide U.S. "billion" vs "million

 

[mrdoubleb]

Surely such faster charging rates would only be for newer packs? Isn't it the case today that many SuC's are 145kWh capable, but are limited 125 or lower to preserve the longevity of the batteries.

I would agree. Getting to 350kWh+ charging requires 2 things: Supercharges capable of that oomph and batteries that can take that beating. I would be very surprised if the current cells are ready for that, but all things point to the new GF1 cells, designed by Tesla from the ground up, having that capability.

This brings us to an interesting dilemma. Tesla says the initial production of the GF1 cells will got to M3 and TE, before coming to S & X, which will, presumably still be supplied from the Panasonic factories in Japan. The question is, could Tesla afford to keep S & X on 18650s from Japan, while M3 gets to charge 3x faster and risk osborning high end sales while customers sit the change out, or will the Japan factories switch to 20700s as well, pre-M3 launch?

Given other favorable attributes of the new cells, like higher energy density and simplification of logistics & manufacturing via having only 1 pack design, I think Tesla is very likely to make that 18650 to 20700 switch across the board as quickly as it can.

 

[T3slaTulips]

I think Tesla is very likely to make that 18650 to 20700 switch across the board as quickly as it can.

Just as reminder, 20700 was an early idea, but they decided to go with a 21700, or "21-70" format.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla may already be installing V3 Superchargers. They could keep them at the 145kWh level until new Model S+X cars are able to use them.

After they turn on the (say) 400kW feature, older cars would continue to draw 90kW or 120kW but double-stalls could supply them all at full speed, versus the curtailed speeds offered by the 145kW systems.

I wonder if the V3 Superchargers would include those liquid-cooled charging cables.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Just as reminder, 20700 was an early idea, but they decided to go with a 21700, or "21-70" format.

Thanks, yeah, 20700 got stuck in my head.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I wonder if the V3 Superchargers would include those liquid-cooled charging cables.

Yeah, that's a good point. Would also give us a chance to track progress. TMC is really good at that sort of thing.

 

[JRP3]

Few hours ago Tesla reached (quite literally)
the 3.5 million milestone

Billion.

 

[hobbes]

I wonder if the V3 Superchargers would include those liquid-cooled charging cables.

Also wondering if they would features CCS connectors (at least in Europe where those will be required).

 

[JRP3]

The question is, could Tesla afford to keep S & X on 18650s from Japan, while M3 gets to charge 3x faster and risk osborning high end sales while customers sit the change out, or will the Japan factories switch to 20700s as well, pre-M3 launch?

It would require improved cell chemistry to allow higher C rate charging, which would be largely independent of cell format, so if Tesla has a chemistry which allows high C rates in the 2170 format they could also use it in the existing 18650 format.

 

[AudubonB]

Merry Christmas to all from your off-for-the-day Moderator.*

 

[JRP3]

Time for the kids to run wild

 

[AudubonB]

*But....if you're naughty not nice you get 1000 shares in the coal company of my choosing.

 

[Off Shore]

Merry Christmas to all from your off-for-the-day Moderator.*

¡felizes fiestas! and thanks for your work here.

 

[techmaven]

Happy Holidays to all.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Billion.

yes, sorry.

 

[Green Pete]

Billion.

"Thousand Million" for the brits out there

 

[JRP3]

*But....if you're naughty not nice you get 1000 shares in the coal company of my choosing.

Clean coal?

 

[madodel]

*But....if you're naughty not nice you get 1000 shares in the coal company of my choosing.

Clean coal I'm sure.