Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

Define major portion? This is around 30% of my admittedly peanuts portfolio at the moment.

I wouldn't recommend my strategy either, but i'm pushing hard to regain ground lost in the summer. I hold mostly mediumterm options but my biggest holding by value is my J18 stock substitute deep ITM calls.

My goal is to get my original investment back, plus enough to buy my Model 3 when it comes time. Means I have to be aggressive without being reckless. The common I sold, I only had because of the SCTY merger - it was converted SCTY shares, bought during the peak of the arbitrage gap. I decided it was money better utilized elsewhere for the delivery# announcement, but that if I waited much longer I'd get swamped in the IV change around year end.

I'm expecting a big positive move before March.

TBH a big percentage of my current portfolio is in March $230's. I rolled J18 $280's to get them. I am also hoping for a move by either the Jan numbers and Gigafactory event or the February ER-CC.

But one reason I did that is because I don't want any of my eggs in the J18's. I was talking to a few forum members about their estimates for M3 production in 2017, and what they'd consider a successful production number for 2017. There's zero consensus for either. Bottom line is that IMO J18's are a crapshoot.

 

[racer26]

TBH a big percentage of my current portfolio is in March $230's. I rolled J18 $280's to get them. I am also hoping for a move by either the Jan numbers and Gigafactory event or the February ER-CC.

But one reason I did that is because I don't want any of my eggs in the J18's. I was talking to a few forum members about their estimates for M3 production in 2017, and what they'd consider a successful production number for 2017. There's zero consensus for either. Bottom line is that IMO J18's are a crapshoot.

I agree the J19's ought to be considerably more stable than J18s. I'll probably try to roll my J18's out to J19's on a descent sometime in a few months.

That being said, I have a great deal of confidence that Tesla will indeed deliver a non-trivial number of not only Model 3's, but also Solar Tile roofs in 2017.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm thinking TSLA may jump 213 this week. That would be easiest way over ichimoku cloud on the weekly. But, you've certainly been more right than I have in calling micro moves. If SP does end up above cloud end of Friday, I'll get even longer, and put all my reserves to work...

View attachment 207119


After all, this is what SP did on a daily level, it got over it at the thinest point, which I anticipated few days ahead(without being sure)... Lots of technical indicators are aligning for Tesla up. And, from my poking at VINs produced and inventory level, I get impression they may be KILLING it this quarter, so perhaps that's what some big buyers are sensing/knowing?

View attachment 207120

Well, I was both right, and wrong.
TSLA did go over 213, but it didn't jump over cloud on weekly. Should be relatively easy next week though... Clouds are tough though

 

[GoTslaGo]

Well, I was both right, and wrong.
TSLA did go over 213, but it didn't jump over cloud on weekly. Should be relatively easy next week though... Clouds are tough though

View attachment 207509

But it did form an excellent three white soldier pattern on candlesticks for the weekly.

 

[dennis]

I got an email from Tesla on Tuesday inviting me to do an "Overnight Test Drive" on a P100DL. I responded that I was interested and got a call back in a few hours. The Tesla salesperson who contacted me said they were reaching out to P85D customers in the local area (Silicon Valley) with this offer. The deal is you pick up the car around 4pm and return it by 10am the next day. So I got the car yesterday and returned it this morning. I have to say that Ludicrous mode is even more awesome than I expected and the acceleration improvement over Insane mode, especially 40-80, is unreal.

When I returned the car I was told that they have several available, and they are offering a $10K discount until the end of the year. This is for an AP2 car with delivery miles only. Although I am not ready to upgrade, this got me to thinking about why Tesla has this program going on right now. Here are my thoughts:

- From what has been reported so far, this P100D discount is the only program other than the normal discounts for demos and AP1 hardware. If Tesla was worried about meeting the delivery number, they would be discounting 75s like in Q3 because they could generate more volume. Instead I think they are focused on generating better margins and operating cash flow

- There are only 31 P100D currently shown in inventory on ev-cpo.com. But this thread indicates that there may be up to 500 P100Ds available. The $10K discount doesn't show up in ev-cpo (it did a few days ago but was quickly taken down) but it is available if you walk into the store.

- Having 500 P100D's available for inventory purchase can't be an accident; it has to have been a deliberate plan on Tesla's part to build these cars instead of less lucrative custom orders. This is not a bad thing because of the margin implications. Even with a $10K discount the GM on a P100D must be at least 40%. So that is $60K gross profit per car, or $30M for 500 cars. That will help offset some of the $125M in ZEV credits from last quarter if they don't materialize in Q4

tl;dr - Tesla is confident in the Q4 delivery number and is working on increasing margins and cash flow. I also think we are witnessing a partial shift in Tesla's sales model to capture more prospects who are ready to buy "off the lot".

 

[sundaymorning]

This time last year the forum was worried sick about guidance for 2016. When Tesla finally released its 80-90k number, some even suggested Tesla was lying. Now that we are on the cusp of beating the 80k deliveries, I'm not one bit concerned about 2017. It's pure execution from here on out.

 

[graphix25]

Interesting trading correlation has developed between TSLA and NVDA over the last 30 days.

One thing they both have in common outside of autonomous vehicles, is the short position in each stock. NVDA short position on 11/30 was 70,870,561 (13%) and TSLA 35,687,317 (22%) of shares outstanding. Both stocks are at 52 week high in total shares shorted as of 11/30/16. It appears we have a coordinated attack on the shorts in these two stocks. Something to watch next week and into the new year.

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Short Interest

 

[Hogfighter]

But a second pie would only be a first pie because the first pie didn't actually happen. As a first pie the best it can be is a fluke.

Once is a fluke.

Twice is a trend.

Three times is a habit.

 

[MitchJi]

- Having 500 P100D's available for inventory purchase can't be an accident; it has to have been a deliberate plan on Tesla's part to build these cars instead of less lucrative custom orders. This is not a bad thing because of the margin implications. Even with a $10K discount the GM on a P100D must be at least 40%. So that is $60K gross profit per car, or $30M for 500 cars. That will help offset some of the $125M in ZEV credits from last quarter if they don't materialize in Q4

They don't lose anything by essentially throwing in a free ludicrous mode. The only "cost" is the software update.

 

[MitchJi]

yeah, I think $93 per KWh at the pack level would be great in 2025, and, sure they might do better (I'm not including savings by using materials from recycled packs in these numbers). I haven't been paying super close attention to this, but I thought the general estimate on the pack level today is ~$200/KWh, headed to about 30+% lower, ~$130 when GF is at full production capacity in about 3 years. that's why ~$90 in 2025 looks pretty nice to me (in the past, before Tesla had looked deeply at GF potential $100/KWh was offered as about the floor on where costs could go. I honestly don't remember if that number was directly from Tesla or from a member here who in my mind was one of the 2 or 3 most credible posters on battery tech).

given what you said about materials being the bulk of the cost per JB, and the recycling to come, maybe we do see $50 by 2025 for packs maxing out use of recycled material.

Tesla has already announced that their packs currently cost less than $190 per kWh.

Any "floor" has to be based on volumetric energy density. If that doubles the "floor" is lowered by about fifty percent.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

1) Faraday Future abandons factory and files for bankruptcy.

2) Tesla buys Faraday Future assets and land for pennies on the dollar. Sounds legit?

*Pure speculation.

Side note: Mark B. Spiegel has been ranting non stop all day. What educated person who isn't a relative of Spiegel or who is involved in his scam of a fund would trust Spiegel with $100,000? (The minimum allotment for his "pooled investment fund".)

 

[Krugerrand]

Once is a fluke.

Twice is a trend.

Three times is a habit.

Well, you and I know that, but it doesn't mean it'll be acknowledged by the market. Secondarily, is there any realistic chance of a habit happening? Aren't we expecting FCFP to for sure end (if they make it in this quarter) in Q117 with increased spending for Model 3?

 

[Off Shore]

1) Faraday Future abandons factory and files for bankruptcy.

2) Tesla buys Faraday Future assets and land for pennies on the dollar. Sounds legit?

*Pure speculation.

Side note: Mark B. Spiegel has been ranting non stop all day. What educated person who isn't a relative of Spiegel or who is involved in his scam of a fund would trust Spiegel with $100,000? (The minimum allotment for his "pooled investment fund".)

Question would be, Why? Electric drive train design was stabilized ~1913; the secret sauce is the batteries and Tesla is already leading the pack (pun intended). What does FF IP offer? Maybe a better option would be for Tesla to secretly fund FF, bleed 10% of S/M sales, while allowing TM to concentrate on Part 3 of the Plan.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

They don't lose anything by essentially throwing in a free ludicrous mode. The only "cost" is the software update.

Not really. The Ludicrous mode also has a higher amperage breaker in the battery and a different material used for the clamps that attach the battery to be able to sustain the current. Besides that it's also the software yes.

 

[MitchJi]

Not really. The Ludicrous mode also has a higher amperage breaker in the battery and a different material used for the clamps that attach the battery to be able to sustain the current. Besides that it's also the software yes.

No. I don't think so.

I'm tired of explaining this.

The parts you are referring to (that I believe are included in every MS-MX) are a more precise fuse (electronically controlled) and different materials in the contacted (iconel).

 

[MitchJi]

Elon just tweeted:
Responding to:
@elonmusk Any update on plan to install solar arrays at Supercharger stations?
Elon:
@FredericLambert There are some installed already, but full rollout really needs Supercharger V3 and Powerpack V2, plus SolarCity. Pieces now in place.
Fred:
@elonmusk Supercharger V3? Now I'm curious. What power out are we talking about? 350 kW?
Elon:
@FredericLambert A mere 350 kW ... what are you referring to, a children's toy?

 

[MikeC]

Elon just tweeted:
Responding to:
@elonmusk Any update on plan to install solar arrays at Supercharger stations?
Elon:
@FredericLambert There are some installed already, but full rollout really needs Supercharger V3 and Powerpack V2, plus SolarCity. Pieces now in place.
Fred:
@elonmusk Supercharger V3? Now I'm curious. What power out are we talking about? 350 kW?
Elon:
@FredericLambert A mere 350 kW ... what are you referring to, a children's toy?

That is pretty incredible. Are they really going to be able to more than triple Supercharging speed anytime soon, though?

 

[KLC13]

Elon:
@FredericLambert A mere 350 kW ... what are you referring to, a children's toy?

>350kW superchargers! Competition were touting their 350kW chargers as 'Ultra' chargers... What will this be called? Ludicrouschargers?

This tweet from Elon is a massive announcement

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Elon's on a roll in general, check out his tweets with replies

 

[sdtslafan]

>350kW superchargers! Competition were touting their 350kW chargers as 'Ultra' chargers... What will this be called? Ludicrouschargers?

This tweet from Elon is a massive announcement

As the rate of supercharging increases by more than a factor of 3, the number of superchargers necessary decreases proportionally. We are beginning to see how Tesla will be able to manage to meet supercharger demand when model 3 arrives!