Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[GBleck]

Rolling out higher amp chargers would be a good time to implement autonomous charging.

 

[RobStark]

@FredericLambert A mere 350 kW ... what are you referring to, a children's toy?

6 miles of range in a nanosecond

 

[Mario Kadastik]

No. I don't think so.

I'm tired of explaining this.

The parts you are referring to (that I believe are included in every MS-MX) are a more precise fuse (electronically controlled) and different materials in the contacted (iconel).

Those two specific parts don't get installed in non-ludicrous packs (cheaper ones are) so there are part differences and hw costs.

 

[MitchJi]

Those two specific parts don't get installed in non-ludicrous packs (cheaper ones are) so there are part differences and hw costs.

Hint.

Why did they develop those parts?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Question would be, Why? Electric drive train design was stabilized ~1913; the secret sauce is the batteries and Tesla is already leading the pack (pun intended). What does FF IP offer? Maybe a better option would be for Tesla to secretly fund FF, bleed 10% of S/M sales, while allowing TM to concentrate on Part 3 of the Plan.

A lot of land next door to Tesla and whatever raw materials FF has.

 

[AudubonB]

A lot of land next door to Tesla and whatever raw materials FF has.

Is this land you're referring to near Fremont (a Bay-adjacent ex-military land comes vaguely to mind, perhaps?), or near Sparks? FF's manufacturing plant was supposed to have been built a short distance out of E. Las Vegas, which is a very long distance from Sparks - about seven hours' drive.

More importantly, as I reported two months ago, when I drove by there in early October there was effectively nothing there. FF had barely scraped their designated land, much less built a factory.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Hint.

Why did they develop those parts?

For higher performance, i.e. better margins on higher performing cars and new demand levers the usual.

 

[Off Shore]

Hint.

Why did they develop those parts?

To put in 800 V cars?

 

[eloder]

That is pretty incredible. Are they really going to be able to more than triple Supercharging speed anytime soon, though?

I don't see why not. The biggest hurdles seem to be A) Whether the batteries can take it or not, B) Electricity (demand costs) from local grids. There are probably some other drawbacks but I can't think of really major ones.

B) is solved already if Powerpack v2 can discharge fast enough to support higher charging speeds at that small scale, and if solar helps minimize/reduce demand charges from utilities. For A), the current charging speeds have changed little in some four years and and at a minimum, faster charging speeds could mean no slow-down when two cars use the same stall.

 

[MitchJi]

For higher performance, i.e. better margins on higher performing cars and new demand levers the usual.

Incorrect again.

Tesla's Boasts Of "Ludicrous Mode" Are Just That, Ludicrous


While working on our goal of making the power train last a million miles, we came up with the idea for an advanced smart fuse for the battery. Instead of a standard fuse that just melts past a certain amperage, which means you aren’t exactly sure when it will or won’t melt or if it will arc when it does, we developed a fuse with its own electronics and a tiny lithium-ion battery. It constantly monitors current at the millisecond level and is pyro-actuated to cut power with extreme precision and certainty.

That was combined with upgrading the main pack contractor to use inconel (a high temperature space-grade superalloy) instead of steel, so that it remains springy under the heat of heavy current.

The net result is that we can safely increase max amp throughout from 1300 to 1500 Amps. If you don’t know much about Amps, trust me this is a silly big number of Amps to be going through something the size of your little fingernail.

What this results in is a 10% improvement in the 0 to 60 mph time to 2.8 secs and a quarter mile time of 10.9 secs. Time to 155 mph is improved even more, resulting in a 20% reduction.

This option will cost $10k to new buyers.

Ludicrous Speed comes at a ludicrous price: it's a $10,000 option for the car, which when you consider that there are no aftermarket parts involved is pricey to say the least. But this is interesting for a few reasons: the usual way to boost performance of any car is through aftermarket modifications; larger turbo, engine ECU tweaks, air filters, larger intercoolers. Here we have the first car where only a software upgrade is required.

 

[larmor]

>350kW superchargers! Competition were touting their 350kW chargers as 'Ultra' chargers... What will this be called? Ludicrouschargers?

This tweet from Elon is a massive announcement

Also mentioned incorp of PP2 and solar, and now it becomes clear why solarcity merged with tesla-- less paperwork to get this done. And if a partially or near fully solar supported SC then i agree with others here, game changer for ICE. And no need for federal subsidies, etc.

Solar for home and industry continues on its pathway. However SC solar PP2 pathway is a new market- know the customer, and then you know the business...

 

[tinm]

Off-topic, but she's on my mind a lot this holiday weekend. Wishing for a speedy and full recovery for Carrie Fisher, who, it turns out, is a Tesla owner...

The Last Word: Carrie Fisher on LSD, Death and Sex With Han Solo

 

[Hogfighter]

Well, you and I know that, but it doesn't mean it'll be acknowledged by the market. Secondarily, is there any realistic chance of a habit happening? Aren't we expecting FCFP to for sure end (if they make it in this quarter) in Q117 with increased spending for Model 3?

Man, dunno. I was under the impression that the bulk of M3 spending was to be in this quarter. If they are pumping out 2,400 cars per week in Q1, they have a shot of forming a habit.

 

[dc_h]

For higher performance, i.e. better margins on higher performing cars and new demand levers the usual.

The high end pays for tomorrow's mainstream. Lowering iconel costs has a virtuous cycle advantage. Developed for SpaceX, brought to high end EV and then mass produced for ?all? Tesla's? Maybe not, but it has been part of the master plan to develop high priced cars to fund mainstream car.

 

[KLC13]

Off-topic, but she's on my mind a lot this holiday weekend. Wishing for a speedy and full recovery for Carrie Fisher, who, it turns out, is a Tesla owner...

The Last Word: Carrie Fisher on LSD, Death and Sex With Han Solo

View attachment 207631

This reminds me, I was in Beverly Hills a few months ago and saw Model S's parked on the curb outside of many houses. It seemed the Mercedes and BMW's had lost their charm and driving a Tesla was the in-thing for the rich and famous.

Tesla really has created a positive sentiment brand which will benefit it as more competition rolls out. Tesla's true ecofriendly brand will make it stand out amongst the big auto.

This brand loyalty and sentiment is another thing Spiegel doesnt get when he talks about competition. I mean, imagine VW selling their electric car as eco-friendly.

Edit: As someone suggested, judging by the tweets, Elon seems to be in a good mood. I will be surprised if they dont meet 50k H2 guidance and the CEO appearing so relaxed (though nothing wrong with that)

 

[SteveG3]

I love how much Elon enjoys delighting in what Tesla has delivered and what's on the horizon together with all of us, like today's SuperCharging tweet... especially in the context of how many hours he grinds away to make all of this happen. that is a lot of fun and sweet in and of itself, but it's also one of the core aspects of TSLA's potential as a holding- what Elon is doing is literally what he has chosen to do without any concessions to what will pay his bills each month.

 

[Sancho]

Feliz Navidad Amigos!

 

[3Victoria]

Not bad 2017 will be Tesla's biggest year ever — here's what's in store for the company

 

[Intl Professor]

Feliz Navidad Amigos!

Y un bien ano nuevo, if you'll pardon my high school Spanish (and not knowing how to do a tilde here).

 

[GoTslaGo]

Merry Christmas & Happy New Years!

As I wait to play Santa and lay out the presents as the kids are sleeping, I was thinking...


I know ZEV credits are not something for Tesla to "aspire" to but was just thinking about Elon's announcement of a >350kW supercharger.

Current rules for fast charging for ZEV credits are biased against BEVs (link to comments for State of California Air Resources Board in 2013: https://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2013/zev2013/zevfsoroal.pdf):

8. Comment: Issues with the fast fueling proposal by staff because it excludes plugin electric vehicles. And it does so in two ways by eliminating the opportunity for battery swap in the future and also by restricting the time to recharge to ten minutes rather than 15 (for Type III vehicles) and by saying that the battery or the fuel cell battery has to be 95 percent charged in 15 minutes. For fast charging for electric vehicles, that would destroy the battery. We would like to see the Board and staff consider making sure that the amendment is not exclusive. So we need to make sure that both fuel cell vehicles and battery electric vehicles get the fast fueling credits. (CalETC)

Agency Response: Comments noted. The fast refueling definition was established to most closely resemble the fast refueling and essentially unlimited daily range experienced with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. As such, fast charging capable BEVs that take 20 to 30 minutes to regain 80- percent of the vehicle’s range do not closely mimic the fueling and range experience of conventional vehicles. See response to Comment 6.

Here is a recent comment I saw about charging a 60D (Improving Supercharger Availability $0.40 idle fee): post #767:

It would be nice to have that flexibility but having a 60D in the southeast means pretty much any time I charge I NEED to get to 100% just to get anywhere. Also, since there really isn't much taper, I will charge to 100% from just about anything from 0-20% in about 30 minutes. Too long to just sit there but too short to go anywhere or do anything. What do you do then?

This is from the current standard 125kW supercharger. Assuming a linear charge rate*, in the future if SuperChargers are 3x faster than current ones, then that 60D will conceivably charge to 100% in 10 minutes. So from ARB standpoint above, the 60D or potentially any software limited Tesla could charge to 100% in 10 minutes, thereby qualifying for the full Fast-Charging ZEV credit (I believe 5 more on top of the 4 credits for BEV, so a total of 9 credits per Tesla versus the current 4).

For equivalency, Tesla could make a 125kWh battery, software limit it to 100kWh and the software limited 100kWh pack could be 100% charged in 10 minutes (with the >350kW supercharger). Thus qualifying for the "Fast fueling" credit. So one could get 300+ mile range in 10 minute charge time.

Yes, I know ZEV credits are things that Tesla should not be designing their cars around, but if they're going to increase the SuperCharger capacity, then it may not be a bad thing to build into the cars the capability to qualify. Money is money...

*probably not a correct assumption, battery experts feel free to chime in here...