Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[larmor]

I ordered my cheap model S too soon. I should have gotten a loaded X 5 months later.

So, great stock price movement.

There must be underlying reasons other than the headline news, because that's a repeat of what they already said months ago.

I'll edit this in a few minutes if I found out misinterpreted.

A lot of price action in TSLA to be had was and will be in seeing evidence that existing plans are progressing well. The news companies may be missing the real point, as usual, and some investors may be getting it.

EOY bargain hunters looking in the tech sector...

 

[geneclean55]

Its almost comical how hard the 200MA was contested by shorts around great Q3 data, and yet today we blew right through it with ease when hard numbers haven't even come out yet.
Kind of messed up my plan/timing to pick up more options

 

[racer26]

Its almost comical how hard the 200MA was contested by shorts around great Q3 data, and yet today we blew right through it with ease when hard numbers haven't even come out yet.
Kind of messed up my plan/timing to pick up more options

Mine too. I was thinking about trading a deep itm leaps call for 2 or 3 higher striked ones for the 2019 expiry.

 

[MitchJi]

Anybody have a handy tool for deciding if selling or exercising your TSLA1 options is the best choice?

Have the last of my TSLA1 (Jan20'17 20.00 Calls) that I'm thinking about dumping today.

I think its:

Exercise+SellTSLA: ((Current SP * 11) - SellCommission) - ((Strike * 100) + ExerciseCommission)
SellCall: (Call Value * 100) - SellCommission

My original plan was to hold my short term options until after the numbers and the Gigafactory event in early January.

But I might sell enough of my short term calls to pay for the positions (about 25 percent of the positions).

 

[Thumper]

Weirdly flat and no volume. Seems everyone is happy with their position at $220ish.

 

[myusername]

nothing to see here... would've expected $220 by the end of the week anyway... but it's a little early... can't imagine it won't pull back to at least $218 today.

 

[Intl Professor]

In denial much? Here's an advise: don't "piss in the wind.."

Which brings to mind the famous phrase in John Kenneth Galbraith's cable to JFK when he was ambassador to India, paraphrased, "shorting is like breaking wind in a typhoon." Which just goes to show predicting the market is a subset of scatology. Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[racer26]

View attachment 207927
nothing to see here... would've expected $220 by the end of the week anyway... but it's a little early... can't imagine it won't pull back to at least $218 today.

Not only early, but broke above your upper trendline.

 

[myusername]

ok... i redrew it... and this actually makes more sense... this is the first time i'm tracking the upper bound... but that seems to line up very well making this jump completely in line with the pattern... so, now I don't expect to see a pull back.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

View attachment 207931
ok... i redrew it... and this actually makes more sense... this is the first time i'm tracking the upper bound... but that seems to line up very well making this jump completely in line with the pattern... so, now I don't expect to see a pull back.

Any chance at all that you could include the y-axis labels with your charts?

 

[myusername]

Any chance at all that you could include the y-axis labels with your charts?

i'll try later... the upper horizontal is $220... one below that is $211... next one is $202... next one is $193.

 

[Grendal]

Love how NM is "mars". @Grendal i assume has been using a lot of bandwidth!

It sure isn't because of our Spaceport America which will only be sub-orbital flights into space.

We do have Los Alamos and Sandia Labs full of scientists who help me achieve that goal of Mars google searches.

And for those here that haven't been inspired about Mars, here is Elon's plans for colonizing the planet:

 

[MitchJi]

Very bullish piece by Charles Schwab:

Buy Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Stock Now Or Regret It Later - Insider Monkey

Buy Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Stock Now Or Regret It Later
A Message from Charles Schwab

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to reap massive revenues from the industry which powers every other one: energy. Solar energy will power TSLA stock going forward.
– Tesla stock has had impressive year-on-year growth since its IPO in 2010.

– Geopolitical factors and consumer demand will act as a huge catalyst for the stock.

– Tesla’s entry into the solar market with a big acquisition couldn’t have come at a better time.

Since its IPO in 2010, Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has had short periods of volatility and also uncertainty about its viability as a game-changing company. Elon Musk’s ambitious projects had raised some eyebrows on the Wall Street. However, recent developments and geopolitical factors (more on those later) show that investors were right to stick with the company.cc
<Snip>
Are they correct about the the timing for the SCTY acquisition?

A Strong Brand
Tesla’s “Model 3″ generated a record-breaking $10bn worth of pre-orders in just 2 days. This shows that Tesla doesn’t just make innovative vehicles, but also has big brand power, and more importantly, customers trust them with their money. In fact, most of the 200,000 people who paid deposits for the Tesla Model 3 hadn’t even taken it for a test drive, or even knew what it looks like. That is unheard of in the automotive industry.
<Snip>

Saying that, Tesla’s biggest growth driver is its foray into solar. Tesla acquired Solar City (2) in Q4 of 2016 in a timely manner. For instance, demand for solar had a compounded growth rate of 60% over the past ten years. This has largely been fuelled by a 60% drop in the cost of solar installation. Moreover, the growing eco-friendly trend means that there is a great interest in renewable sources of energy. Tesla’s acquisition of Solar City would allow it to produce solar solutions by leveraging impressive economies of scale and utilizing Solar City’s distribution network.

In November of 2016, Elon Musk announced “Solar roofs” at a media event in the Hollywood hills. Instead of having a solar panel on part of the roof, the “Solar roof” replaces the entire roof for maximal energy generation. The announcement of this neat, Apple-eque-tight-integration has been well received by consumers. Elon Musk also stated that he wants to create a one-stop shop for consumers. In the near future, customers would be able to walk into a Tesla showroom and walk out with a Tesla vehicle, Solar Roof, and power charger.

A foray into the home is of increasing importance for tech companies and Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to do it on a massive scale.

I was thinking about the potential of solar for TSLA and I had the thought that Toyota and GM are huge, but are dwarfed by Exon and BP.

 

[geneclean55]

TSLA daily stock patterns have been very interesting over the past few weeks. Often very flat during the day, sometimes preceded by a jump earlier during the day, not much in the way of wild intra-day swings. Any ideas on what this represents? Institutions buying and carefully moderating the price perhaps?

 

[Ameliorate]

The Dow Jones has also been teetering on breaking 20,000. If it does anybody expecting a general market rally? Nasdaq currently hitting new highs.

 

[dennis]

Panasonic has $65b in revenues... $4b in profits... FP/E of 17.5... P/S 0.37... P/B 1.57
Tesla has less than $10b in revenues... will be negative earnings for 2016... P/S 5.5... P/B 12

According to Tesla investor math... if Tesla hit numbers like Panasonic... its market cap should be well into the $100b's.

Tesla is crazy expensive compared to Panasonic (or normal stocks)... why are the longs on this board not freaking out about Panasonic?

The answer is very simple: the 5 year CAGR for Panasonic is less than 1%, while the CAGR for Tesla is 103%.

PCRFY: Panasonic Corp ADR Top Competitors and Peers

 

[dennis]

While the risk of disappointment is real, I want to clarify the issue of InsideEV's estimates. I believe they subscribe to data from a number of feeds that get their data from the limited number of states that provide such data. They then adjust that number for a variety of factors, including a gut based guess. They also correct those numbers over the course of a year to then line things up. So the intra-quarter numbers are a reasonable guess, but certainly not strictly accurate, as opposed to many of the European numbers, with the caveat that deliveries != registrations even there.

In a normal quarter, the variance in delivery times range from same day at the Fremont factory, a few days on the west coast, a week or so for trucking in many parts of the U.S., 3 weeks if they use rail+truck, to 8-15 weeks for deliveries overseas like to China or the UK. The UK, for instance, often has vehicles in major parts trucked across the U.S., boards a ship for the Netherlands, gets re-assembled, then shipped to the UK and trucked to the delivery location. That can be across most of a quarter... 10+ weeks. So, Tesla has always done geographical batching with overseas deliveries primarily at the beginning of a quarter and shifting emphasis to domestic and then west coast and then California deliveries. They then also start up making vehicles for overseas at the very, very end when they have built out the California orders for the quarter.

In Q4, the factory was cutting over to AP2 and was shut down for some part of the beginning of October. Presumably, by October 12th, they started to make vehicles with AP2 hardware. They built only vehicles for overseas deliveries for the month of October. That means every vehicle delivered in the U.S. in October was out of the 5,500 overhang from Q3. It is usually not that extreme. Furthermore, U.S. vehicles weren't made until early November, and combined with delivery times using rail, there was really only about 1.5 weeks of deliveries in the U.S. in November. There were also some reports of running out of AP2 parts in mid November, but unclear if DS's were just coming up with reasons why orders were delayed. But in any case, it is clear that in the way the batching worked for Q4, the first two months of deliveries in the U.S. was going to be low, with a higher degree of variance than normal. So it isn't an issue that we don't believe the InsideEV's estimates. Instead, it is about the ramp speed for the AP2 hardware versions and the ability for Tesla to manage such extremes, as obviously they had extreme boom and bust along the delivery logistics.

I agree with everything you said, but would add that from late Sept. until early Nov. Tesla also built a TON of inventory cars that are unlikely to show up in the sales numbers until December. As that Lexus ad says it should be "a December to remember".

 

[Mike Smith]

500M in increased credit lines
250M solar equity sale
250M Panasonic investment

= 1B in the last week with no dilution to shareholders.

 

[Jayjs20]

Man you can really see those hard pushes down.

 

[SBenson]

Panasonic has $65b in revenues... $4b in profits... FP/E of 17.5... P/S 0.37... P/B 1.57
Tesla has less than $10b in revenues... will be negative earnings for 2016... P/S 5.5... P/B 12

According to Tesla investor math... if Tesla hit numbers like Panasonic... its market cap should be well into the $100b's.

Tesla is crazy expensive compared to Panasonic (or normal stocks)... why are the longs on this board not freaking out about Panasonic?

For the amount of commentary you post, you really ought to know better.

Stocks, especially growth stocks, don't trade based on trailing 12-month financials. They trade based on expected future value, discounted by a percentage that is appropriate to the risk involved.

Trailing 12 month financial ratios make sense for large stable companies because there is not much difference between expected future cashflows vs current cashflows. But for growth companies there is a staggering difference between expected future vs present, looking through rear view mirror is totally inappropriate.

Nit-pick:
Looks like you took latest quarterly figures for panasonic and multiplied by 4 to get 4bil profits for Panasonic. Latest quarter happens to be an anomaly btw. Here are some actual figures: Net Income in USD: T12 2.264Bil. FY 2017 est 1.308 Bil, FY 2018 Est 1.605 Bil.