Or gap up over SMA(200) on a high volume could draw technical momentum traders, making this level of buying even more "completely unsustainable"...
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Or gap up over SMA(200) on a high volume could draw technical momentum traders, making this level of buying even more "completely unsustainable"...
Kenriko
Former Vendor
Given most of the "Good News" is < 1hr old I expect more buyers to come online once they take a look.
$222 up from $213 isn't chopped liver! TSLA is currently at a 4-month high.
It takes a rare collection of conditions for TSLA to jump 4% in one hour. There is literally no bad news right now and more folks are getting behind the stock.
Deliveries number won't be affected by the bad dollar conversion rates... only the ER around February 8th.
That said, it might be time to take some off the table after the deliveries number. Only to buy back in when it dips
That is kind of my plan, but after this morning I am debating whether I should take the sure thing now and buy in at 215 at a later date. Or do I get greedy and see how much higher the stock can go in the short term?
Krugerrand
Meow
There's no reason to freak out about anything.
A little fact for you: If not for Tesla, Panasonic would still be in serious trouble. Panasonic literally owes Tesla for saving it by dragging it along on this ride.
No idea. Thats a wildcard for me.
I think shorts will cling on and use the guidance miss as their main argument even if it is a small miss...Remeber, just like us, these shorts are fully convinced in their beleiefs. Like we think Tesla is a revolution, they think TSLA is a scam. One of us is definitely wrong.
sundaymorning
Active Member
A typical short will cling onto that hopium pipe till they overdose, it's a matter of "when" they throw in the towel at this point.
I hate to sound negative, but I am a little anxious about Q4 deliveries. this feels a lot less "in the bag" than Q3 was. Last quarter we could already seem from EU data and InsideEV estimates that it will be good, only the last month was so strong it bel even most of our expectations away.
This time, while the first 2 months look solid in Europe (only 100 below same time last quarter and that was a monster), December data out of Norway shows December ~40% below September(S, X). Now, that is likely the last refresh before Xmas, but not sure how much they can do in 4 work days and if the same trend is true for the rest of the continent (may not be at all).
In the US, our working theory (hope?) is that the InsideEVs estimates are inaccurate, because if not, December would have to pull in ~2500k above the huge September numbers we had to keep the quarterly totals equal. And as always, Asia is a dark horse.
Not saying "brace for impact" just yet, but I am trying to temper my excitement over the 220s.
This time, while the first 2 months look solid in Europe (only 100 below same time last quarter and that was a monster), December data out of Norway shows December ~40% below September(S, X). Now, that is likely the last refresh before Xmas, but not sure how much they can do in 4 work days and if the same trend is true for the rest of the continent (may not be at all).
In the US, our working theory (hope?) is that the InsideEVs estimates are inaccurate, because if not, December would have to pull in ~2500k above the huge September numbers we had to keep the quarterly totals equal. And as always, Asia is a dark horse.
Not saying "brace for impact" just yet, but I am trying to temper my excitement over the 220s.
Yes, you should buy in at $215 now. Except you can't.
sundaymorning
Active Member
It's looking mighty scary in shortville right now. A beat combined with 50% growth estimates for guidance of 120,000, M3 "on time" and its catastrophe. Oil up, Dow approaching 20k, my bet is that a handful of shorts will bail on their positions before release of delivery numbers.
While the risk of disappointment is real, I want to clarify the issue of InsideEV's estimates. I believe they subscribe to data from a number of feeds that get their data from the limited number of states that provide such data. They then adjust that number for a variety of factors, including a gut based guess. They also correct those numbers over the course of a year to then line things up. So the intra-quarter numbers are a reasonable guess, but certainly not strictly accurate, as opposed to many of the European numbers, with the caveat that deliveries != registrations even there.
In a normal quarter, the variance in delivery times range from same day at the Fremont factory, a few days on the west coast, a week or so for trucking in many parts of the U.S., 3 weeks if they use rail+truck, to 8-15 weeks for deliveries overseas like to China or the UK. The UK, for instance, often has vehicles in major parts trucked across the U.S., boards a ship for the Netherlands, gets re-assembled, then shipped to the UK and trucked to the delivery location. That can be across most of a quarter... 10+ weeks. So, Tesla has always done geographical batching with overseas deliveries primarily at the beginning of a quarter and shifting emphasis to domestic and then west coast and then California deliveries. They then also start up making vehicles for overseas at the very, very end when they have built out the California orders for the quarter.
In Q4, the factory was cutting over to AP2 and was shut down for some part of the beginning of October. Presumably, by October 12th, they started to make vehicles with AP2 hardware. They built only vehicles for overseas deliveries for the month of October. That means every vehicle delivered in the U.S. in October was out of the 5,500 overhang from Q3. It is usually not that extreme. Furthermore, U.S. vehicles weren't made until early November, and combined with delivery times using rail, there was really only about 1.5 weeks of deliveries in the U.S. in November. There were also some reports of running out of AP2 parts in mid November, but unclear if DS's were just coming up with reasons why orders were delayed. But in any case, it is clear that in the way the batching worked for Q4, the first two months of deliveries in the U.S. was going to be low, with a higher degree of variance than normal. So it isn't an issue that we don't believe the InsideEV's estimates. Instead, it is about the ramp speed for the AP2 hardware versions and the ability for Tesla to manage such extremes, as obviously they had extreme boom and bust along the delivery logistics.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
While last quarter was "in the bag," the SP fell despite a massive beat. Momentum wasn't on our side in 2016. Right now, as it stands, the ball is in our court, momentum is strong and there are a lot of tailwind.
Keep in mind that deliveries above 75k for 2016 is means 50% growth.
I'd just like to thank Mark B. Spiegel for that wonderful talk he gave a few weeks ago. Ever since, the stock has been up up up.
I drove around europe for 2 weeks between Nov and Dec and in that time saw 2 trucks with teslas. One was in Holland, the other was in Germany. I don't think that is a common occurrence, but I have no facts to base that on. I would say a shipment arrived and vehicles were being delivered. There were both X's and S's on the shipments.
racer26
Active Member
Anybody have a handy tool for deciding if selling or exercising your TSLA1 options is the best choice?
Have the last of my TSLA1 (Jan20'17 20.00 Calls) that I'm thinking about dumping today.
I think its:
Exercise+SellTSLA: ((Current SP * 11) - SellCommission) - ((Strike * 100) + ExerciseCommission)
SellCall: (Call Value * 100) - SellCommission
Have the last of my TSLA1 (Jan20'17 20.00 Calls) that I'm thinking about dumping today.
I think its:
Exercise+SellTSLA: ((Current SP * 11) - SellCommission) - ((Strike * 100) + ExerciseCommission)
SellCall: (Call Value * 100) - SellCommission
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Silevo technology included both manufacturing technology and solar cell technology. One example Tesla gave is that Silevo has perfected using 6 inch wafers, while Panasonic is still using 4 inch wafers, and that they will manufacture 6 inch wafers in NY. This is probably a requirement for the solar tiles.
Ulmo
Active Member
I ordered my cheap model S too soon. I should have gotten a loaded X 5 months later.
So, great stock price movement.
There must be underlying reasons other than the headline news, because that's a repeat of what they already said months ago.
I'll edit this in a few minutes if I found out misinterpreted.
A lot of price action in TSLA to be had was and will be in seeing evidence that existing plans are progressing well. The news companies may be missing the real point, as usual, and some investors may be getting it.
Edit: I haven't unturned every stone, but I'm pretty sure I'm right: the main catalyst is the hinted SuperCharging capability mixed in with the older good news. The news feeds give an inaccurate view. Reminds me of political news feeds (that are always way wrong, probably not even locally guided).
Re-edit: no, in retrospect, I take it back, and I'm wrong: what seems to be happening is that other people are realizing what I already was predicting many weeks ago. The positive effect of Trump, the solar factory news, good deliveries, puzzle pieces coming together (sun to road), and some of the usual constant unexpected sugar (SuperCharger adult version 3). It's fair that it takes more time for some to digest this stuff than me.
So, great stock price movement.
There must be underlying reasons other than the headline news, because that's a repeat of what they already said months ago.
I'll edit this in a few minutes if I found out misinterpreted.
A lot of price action in TSLA to be had was and will be in seeing evidence that existing plans are progressing well. The news companies may be missing the real point, as usual, and some investors may be getting it.
Edit: I haven't unturned every stone, but I'm pretty sure I'm right: the main catalyst is the hinted SuperCharging capability mixed in with the older good news. The news feeds give an inaccurate view. Reminds me of political news feeds (that are always way wrong, probably not even locally guided).
Re-edit: no, in retrospect, I take it back, and I'm wrong: what seems to be happening is that other people are realizing what I already was predicting many weeks ago. The positive effect of Trump, the solar factory news, good deliveries, puzzle pieces coming together (sun to road), and some of the usual constant unexpected sugar (SuperCharger adult version 3). It's fair that it takes more time for some to digest this stuff than me.
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Originally I was cautious like you but I discovered some interesting data.
In addition to @techmaven 's excellent write up above, I would like to add some substantive data points.
1) Just this morning I happened to see China monthly registration data by CAIN through an intermediary. Here are some relevant facts:
- Model S registrations jumped from 1276 in Q2 to 1956 in Q3 (53% growth in just one quarter).
- Model X deliveries started in June.
- Both Model S/X are going through some extreme batching related delivery cycles. Even more so in the case of X than S.
- Oct registrations for combined S/X is 605 relative to 363 for July.
- Overall looking through numbers a few different ways, I believe deliveries will be well north of 5K in China in Q4.
I am not entirely sure if this includes Hong Kong. Apparently there are some tax changes looming in HK in March 17, which should accelerate sales/deliveries about now.
So this extreme batching of a few additional thousand cars is bound to skew early deliveries in US down.
2) There was a pause on the factory line for AP 2.0. Presumably that would be overcome with higher production rates later in the quarter. So this too has an downward impact of deliveries around the globe early into the quarter.
3) 11 out of 14 times Tesla met or beat quarterly delivery guidance. 2 of which were due to X production issues, which we know are resolved by now. 1 of which was due to an unexpected port strike plus unexpected extreme weather.
We know nothing extreme is at play this quarter. The recent analyst note about "inconsistent" X production was probably referring to 5 seat issues. From what we gather those issues are resolved and all 5 seaters are flushed out at this point.
At this point I very much feel that 25K deliveries is in the bag. We will have to see how much higher deliveries will be.
When 120K S+X guidance comes out, which I am pretty confident in, even without any TE, without any solar roofs, with out any model 3s, we still will be at 50% growth rate with an approximate +2Bil Operating Cash Flow!
This is going to put some very serious hurt on shorts.
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