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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Anyone and everyone on this board would have gladly told you that those analysts are absolute idiots and that Tesla would absolutely not make a profit that year. Watching exactly what you pointed out was the catalyst for me finally realizing that the big fancy Wall Street analysts were actually just the C students of the financial world that weren't smart enough to be traders and that they just aren't good at what they do. Particularly when it comes to growth companies.

Not sure why you would bring that up? Or did you actually think last year was a huge EPS miss? Even Musk had been saying they would not show a profit until 2017 at the earliest, even with that the analysts kept upping their absurd EPS "targets"

If analysts actually knew what they were doing, then they wouldn't be working for anyone. Most people work because they need the money....
 
Ugh... I panicked and sold my shares at 221. Of course, now the SP has barely budged meaning it will probably keep climbing the rest of the week and I will miss it. After getting burned by the election result, I tend to be more cautious. At least I made $23k out of the deal so I am not too bent up about it. NVDA is looking like a really good place to park until TSLA comes back down.

Surely NVIDIA is a bit over-cooked for the moment?
 
Buy in again now at 219?

I am a noob using Scottrade and I have to wait three days for every transaction to settle before I can buy shares again. By the time the funds are available from my last transaction, Q4 delivery numbers will be out and I will miss my window to jump in and take advantage of any positive news. I could always sell a kidney...
 
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Reactions: DrJohnM and madodel
Surely NVIDIA is a bit over-cooked for the moment?
I was thinking along the same lines. I am guessing there will be a slight "correction" over the next couple of days that would allow me to jump in at 110-12ish. The expectation seems to favor a positive Q4 earning report for NVDA (They have their hands on many different markets and are Tesla's primary AP hardware supplier). That would be a nice "pop" to catch in the first week of February. I am speculating btw. I am no expert.
 
I was surprised by the sudden rise, still have about 25% dry powder I was hoping to invest around 210 this year, before the deliver numbers and Jan.4 event. Last week I was still doing some daily plays (buy & sell) with few dollar differences and sold on Friday afternoon hoping to buy back few dollars lower this week. Now, I may not be able to do that at a price lower than my last sell on Friday...

I still have a significant core position, so I do not mind the value of that increasing, though ;)
 
I was thinking along the same lines. I am guessing there will be a slight "correction" over the next couple of days that would allow me to jump in at 110-12ish. The expectation seems to favor a positive Q4 earning report for NVDA (They have their hands on many different markets and are Tesla's primary AP hardware supplier). That would be a nice "pop" to catch in the first week of February. I am speculating btw. I am no expert.

NVDA has a monthly RSI of 95 and starting to look like an "eiffel tower" pattern on the monthly chart. It is also way above the upper bollinger band on the monthly chart. Please be careful.

What Do You Really Know About Eiffel-Tower Patterns?
 
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Reactions: hoang51 and Chop110
Any chance at all that you could include the y-axis labels with your charts?
Screen Shot 2016-12-27 at 4.16.00 PM.png


Drawn using: http://demo.chartiq.com/widgets/2.0/portal2.html?page=chart
 
Autopilot predicts crash before it happens Tesla Autopilot’s new radar technology predicts an accident caught on dashcam a second later

Could generate more good press.
This is interesting news, since during a recent 250 mile drive yesterday, had this innocuous beep arise one or two times, but car icon did not go red and there was no accident. So this was likely a pre marker for a collision for vehicle one ahead with vehicle two cars ahead, which was averted with the closer vehicle slowing down. It did bring back my attention, as i was on AP.
 
I keep watching this over and over.....it looks like the system calculated that the red car was getting too close to the black SUV and determined that a crash was likely and then alerted the driver?
It doesn't care if the red car hits the SUV or not. What it's doing is using the radar to see ahead of the red car and in this example it saw a slow moving object ahead that required application of the brakes. This tech is way ahead of other vendors AEBS systems that are only using cameras to avoid crashing into the closest object.
 
Autopilot predicts crash before it happens Tesla Autopilot’s new radar technology predicts an accident caught on dashcam a second later

Could generate more good press.
(bolding mine)

Wow. That's very impressive. I believe that "could generate more good press" will be a massive understatement. If this is the new Tesla standard, then I don't think people will refer to Volvo as "safe vehicles" any longer. This video has massive potential to shift perceptions around autopilot & co.
 
first of all... i don't actually post that much content.

second of all... I KNOW TESLA IS A GROWTH STOCK.

the point is... regardless of whether or not it's a growth stock... it's a company just like any other...

12 months ago... nearly all analysts were predicting at least $1 EPS for 2016... many were predicting $3... and one (credit suisse) was predicting 7 freaking dollars EPS for 2016...

now they've all lumped together sub -$1.

i'm sorry... you don't just get to forget about the past 12 months because it's a growth stock... and now you're going to tell me about reinvestment of capital... etc... and then we're going to have the exact same discussion at this time every year for the next 3 years... just like we did for the last 3 years... and Tesla will always be just about to break out.

Several people responded to this and gave you the answer that "growth is causing losses", which you probably wrote off as bs.

Maybe I can present you an alternative, a more palatable answer.

We all know all the way from mid 2015 through mid 2016, the big mess up was model X production issues. This caused damage in a few different ways:
- The production'isation took lot more cost
- There was lost revenue
- Most importantly SG&A (and R&D) was ramped up ahead of cycle, anticipating X revenue to come in earlier (which didn't), causing a deep gap between gross-profits and net-profits.

So all this turned expected profits into realised losses. Management clearly expressed regrets and have expressed that they learnt their lessons - no less, in writing!

What more can any one expect.

Effectively, we on the long side believe this to be more of a one time incident.

For you to be right, Tesla will have to have a model X sized mess up year in and year out. My advice to you, don't bet on it!

Even if they have failures here and there, there will be plenty of other revenue/product streams that will more than make up for mistakes. So be careful if you were to maintain a long-term short position.

PS:

You posted 483 messages in 72 business days at a rate of 6.7 posts/bus-day. You sure do post a lot of stuff.

"first of all... i don't actually post that much content." -- This is factually incorrect.
 
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I keep watching this over and over.....it looks like the system calculated that the red car was getting too close to the black SUV and determined that a crash was likely and then alerted the driver?

The radar basically detected that the SUV in front of the red car had slammed on its brakes. You can see the brake lights through the red car's windows right as the Tesla's emergency braking signal goes off.
 
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