Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Bet TSLA]

Actually, if robots take over most of trading, that could be a real advantage for human investors. Just figure out what the robots undervalue and buy it.

Riiiight. You do realize there will be robots doing that?

 

[Intl Professor]

Some traditional human investors are robotic too. Traditional as in Yaroslav Pelikan: "Traditionalism is the dead faith of the living while tradition, on the other hand, is the living faith of the dead." (Academics always like to quote him—such a wild name!)

 

[gene]

Did the Tesla Factory Tour on Friday the 12th. :smile::smile::smile:

 

[Intl Professor]

You guys are great teachers.:smile::smile::smile::smile:

 

[sundaymorning]

I think Model X production is really starting to accelerate. Musk tweeted a video of the "X getting it's wings" where robots assemble the falcon door onto the frame, no human hands around. To me, it seems as though it's a bit of gloating and a subtle wink to the markets that Model X is ramping up.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter

Awesom!!

 

[MitchJi]

The Q4 quotes are from seeking fud:
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q4 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

And the pdf, available here:
http://s.t.st/media/xtranscript/2016/Q1/13456288.pdf
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q4 2015 Conference Call Transcript - TheStreet

Please feel free to quote up to 200 words per transcript. Any quote should be accompanied by "Provided by TheStreet" and a link to the complete transcript.

Of course they are unveiling an actual car.

We're really looking forward to the unveiling of the Model 3 at the end of next month. I think this is going to be really well received, and then getting into production and delivery at the end of next year.

He did not say that they don't need the GF for M3!

Basically, to the best of our knowledge, you should not worry about the Gigafactory as a constraint on Model 3. That does not appear to be anywhere near the critical path for Model 3.

As for TE and a 15% margin, I don't believe its only 15% now. I think they will hit 40%-60% by the end of 2017, when they are using cells produced at the GF.
Tesla's endgame: Why electric vehicles are just the beginning | Utility Dive

This will allow us to achieve a major reduction in the cost of our battery packs and accelerate the pace of battery innovation,” Tesla’s investor newsletter said.
<snip>
Tesla believes the Giga factory will drive down the cost of its battery packs by at least 30% 2017 and at least 50% by 2020.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q1 2015 Conference Call Transcript - TheStreet

Elon Musk (Chairman and CEO):The gross margin revenue obviously is going to change with time. When it's low volume, made in three months, it will be relatively low margin. Once we get to Gigafactory up and running and high-volume, get the economies of scale working, this is just a guess right now, but maybe it's somewhere around 20%. This is not like -- it's like we don't have enough information to say exactly what that would be, but probably 20% is a reasonable guess.

I think that most investors and analysts assumed that included the 30%-50% GF cost reductions, which doesn't add up...

Faced with growing demand for Powerpacks and Powerwalls, we have accelerated our plans to expand manufacturing capacity. In early Q4, we relocated production from Fremont to an automated assembly line at the Gigafactory.

Which means that he must have been referring to setting up the "automated assembly line at the Gigafactory".

Okay. And can you give an update on stationary storage? Is that still trending to your targeted $3 billion to $5 billion (6:02) by 2017?

The gross margin, is it still at your – is it still trending to the 15% target I think you mentioned on the last call?

Production limited thing, if we imagine the most we could possibly make make in 2016, we've already sold out of that. If even a small percentage of the orders are valid we're already sold out of 2016, and well into 2017... So it's mostly about predicting our production rate, and we expect very dramatic increases in the stationary storage production. The reason I feel a bit cautious about giving exact estimates is because when you have an exponential increase, the exact calendar window...

Oh, 15%, yeah. Yeah, I don't think it's going to be any problem meeting a 15% margin target. Obviously, the margin improves as the production ramps up, so, yeah.

Yeah, I don't know if we want to discuss the specific margin targets, but it should be in excess of 15%. That is our internal target.

Which means that the 15% figure is before incorporating the 30%-50% less expensive cells produced at the GF! So by the end of 2017 the TE margins should be at least (15% + 25%) or 40%! With a target of $3 billion to $5 billion by 2017!

And the 15% figure came from Colin Langan. EM and JB said "...going to be any problem meeting a 15% margin target" and "it should be in excess of 15%".

Before the M3 this might be a pipe dream, but at some point they will be producing less expensive cells for TE and the MS-MS and the M3. They need more GF's (cash cows)!

 

[AlMc]

Did I miss someone posting this:General Motors, MetLife and Tesla: Doug Kass' Views - TheStreet

Doug Kass going 'long' TSLA (small position)

 

[maoing]

No, he's still shorting.

Position: Long POT, RDN, AERI (small), NKTR (small), OTIC (small), SAGE (small); Short DIS (small), TSLA (small)

 

[AlMc]

No, he's still shorting.

Thanks Maoing......My bad.....:wink:


At least it is a 'small' position

 

[Phil Seastrand]

He did not say that they don't need the GF for M3!

Originally Posted by Elon Musk Q4
Basically, to the best of our knowledge, you should not worry about the Gigafactory as a constraint on Model 3. That does not appear to be anywhere near the critical path for Model 3.

He said it's not on the critical path. He didn't say it wasn't needed.

 

[mmd]

Papafox,
I agree that the tour likely showed nothing important for trading. Still, the 3 kind of implied that.
Anyway, looks like mods don't like this discussion; all 3 posts were removed very quickly. I will stop posting anything else on this.

 

[chickensevil]

Papafox,
I agree that the tour likely showed nothing important for trading. Still, the 3 kind of implied that.
Anyway, looks like mods don't like this discussion; all 3 posts were removed very quickly. I will stop posting anything else on this.

As long as it relates to the Short term movements it is five. The discussion that was moved was just Model 3 speculation and that doesn't really belong here.

 

[MitchJi]

He said it's not on the critical path. He didn't say it wasn't needed.

Exactly.

 

[AlMc]

As long as it relates to the Short term movements it is five. The discussion that was moved was just Model 3 speculation and that doesn't really belong here.

Yeah..not sure why the posts were removed (mine was one)..but they were not about model3.

 

[jhm]

He said it's not on the critical path. He didn't say it wasn't needed.

If I understand that jargon correctly, not being on the critical path means that it will be built out so far in advance that it posses no timing risk for the Model 3. Moreover, my impression is that the capacity gets built out well in advance because it can be well utilized to make TE products. So there is no capital inefficiency to building it out well in advance.

 

[everman]

If I understand that jargon correctly, not being on the critical path means that it will be built out so far in advance that it posses no timing risk for the Model 3. Moreover, my impression is that the capacity gets built out well in advance because it can be well utilized to make TE products. So there is no capital inefficiency to building it out well in advance.

You're correct. Critical Path in this context is an analogy for bottleneck, or production area creating a constraint, and therefore the recipient of the most focused effort.

 

[Causalien]

You're correct. Critical Path in this context is an analogy for bottleneck, or production area creating a constraint, and therefore the recipient of the most focused effort.

And Elon said that the falcon wing is not the critical path. Yet it is because of the 1 year delay. I am pointing this out so that people don't take his comment at face value until proven otherwise. The two critical paths are, BIW production line and cheap enough battery. TESLA can produce enough battery at a higher cost, in that sense, yes it is not a critical path. but will people buy the Model 3 at $50 000?

 

[FredTMC]

And Elon said that the falcon wing is not the critical path. Yet it is because of the 1 year delay. I am pointing this out so that people don't take his comment at face value until proven otherwise. The two critical paths are, BIW production line and cheap enough battery. TESLA can produce enough battery at a higher cost, in that sense, yes it is not a critical path. but will people buy the Model 3 at $50 000?

Just thought I'd note that everyone will be buying a Model 3 for $50K or more once it launches. It remains to be seen after 2018s Model 3 production run, if the stripped down "base model" will be available yet for delivery. My sense is that the "base model" won't be offered until into 2019.

Rationale: there's going to be an enormous backlog of reservations after the launch on March 31st. Tesla's production capacity for 2018 will probably be limited to 100k units and their reservation backlog will likely be far larger. Therefore, as usual, tesla will have every incentive to only produce heavily optioned cars first, and only later begin delivering base model cars in 2019. Even by 2019, the mix will very likely remain heavily optioned cars. Really, no different than MS.

I have no doubt that the base model of model 3 will eventually be available for delivery. The other important side benefit of this coming huge model 3 backlog is that it affords time for tesla to reach economies of scale with battery production and cost. By the time tesla will start delivering base models, the margin on these cars will be better.

Finally, I don't believe that true base model versions of model 3 will ever be a big percentage of the cars sold. This is similar to MS today. Only few MSs are base models. Remember MS with the small battery? Hardly sold any and eventually tesla cancelled it.

 

[tinm]

I find it illuminating to occasionally take a stroll through the comments and reviews posted by Tesla employees on the Glassdoor service.

I am struck by the recent pattern of complaints regarding "parts shortages." One sees it frequently in there. Have to take everything you read with a grain of salt, but it is another data point worth keeping an eye on. As are the incessant morale comments related to bad upper management and favoritism. Disgruntled employees, sure, but a pattern of disgruntlement that is interesting to an investor.

I suppose there have been all sorts of issues with the X rollout, and that's even now being reflected in Glassdoor.

 

[TSLAopt]

I find it illuminating to occasionally take a stroll through the comments and reviews posted by Tesla employees on the Glassdoor service.

I am struck by the recent pattern of complaints regarding "parts shortages." One sees it frequently in there. Have to take everything you read with a grain of salt, but it is another data point worth keeping an eye on. As are the incessant morale comments related to bad upper management and favoritism. Disgruntled employees, sure, but a pattern of disgruntlement that is interesting to an investor.

I suppose there have been all sorts of issues with the X rollout, and that's even now being reflected in Glassdoor.

13k+ employees now of course there will be a lot of complainers. I would not use the fact that there will of course be some disgruntled bad apples as a data point for the stock.

perhaps if you had a handful of close friends you've known for a long time you trust who all worked at Tesla and all confided their disgruntled feelings for working at Tesla to you then perhaps you could use that as a data point.

on another note, my wife and I have had our X for 3-4 weeks now and we absolutely love it more and more each day. We have young kids and the FWDs are a a true gift of an innovation we really love having.

Also so I walked into a local Tesla store today and asked the managers about their observations of foot traffic in the store during ,y long conversation, the guy who's worked at Tesla for years was very careful about his answer because he's not allowed to give out any data or info on reservations they do but he did say it is exceptionally strong for both the S AND the X. To me, this is a good data point for the stock...I don't remember his exact words but he said it in a way where it could not be interpreted that demand is flat, waning, or weak.