Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ev-enthusiast]

Papafox,
I agree that the tour likely showed nothing important for trading. Still, the 3 kind of implied that.
Anyway, looks like mods don't like this discussion; all 3 posts were removed very quickly. I will stop posting anything else on this.

What is going on here?

Can somebody please explain?

Yesterday I read a post from a long term member here that he did a factory tour and he liked the tour, he put 3 s at the end of his post.

Today I can no longer find these posts!

Can someone please explain what happened here?

Thank's in advance!

 

[DrJohnM]

$155.6 up 3% pre market

 

[AlMc]

What is going on here?

Can somebody please explain?

Yesterday I read a post from a long term member here that he did a factory tour and he liked the tour, he put 3 s at the end of his post.

Today I can no longer find these posts!

Can someone please explain what happened here?

Thank's in advance!

That post and a couple commenting to it were pulled,,,Reason???

 

[lango]

Just thought I'd note that everyone will be buying a Model 3 for $50K or more once it launches. It remains to be seen after 2018s Model 3 production run, if the stripped down "base model" will be available yet for delivery. My sense is that the "base model" won't be offered until into 2019.

Rationale: there's going to be an enormous backlog of reservations after the launch on March 31st. Tesla's production capacity for 2018 will probably be limited to 100k units and their reservation backlog will likely be far larger. Therefore, as usual, tesla will have every incentive to only produce heavily optioned cars first, and only later begin delivering base model cars in 2019. Even by 2019, the mix will very likely remain heavily optioned cars. Really, no different than MS.

I have no doubt that the base model of model 3 will eventually be available for delivery. The other important side benefit of this coming huge model 3 backlog is that it affords time for tesla to reach economies of scale with battery production and cost. By the time tesla will start delivering base models, the margin on these cars will be better.

Finally, I don't believe that true base model versions of model 3 will ever be a big percentage of the cars sold. This is similar to MS today. Only few MSs are base models. Remember MS with the small battery? Hardly sold any and eventually tesla cancelled it.

I don't think the base model will happen for a while. There is two pieces of information that I think is important:

Elon's tweet about "fully operational GigaFactory needed". And now recently he said GigaFactory is not critical for Model 3 launch. Those statements contradict.

So either battery prices they pay have gone down or they have to wait until GF has depressed them further to sell the base model and he meant that GF is not critical to launch Model 3 which implies no base model at launch. Battery prices can't be crazy low though as the GM for Model S is not that low for it's price.

Either way they and Panasonic are on a steady path towards cheaper batteries.

 

[mibaro2]

What is going on here?

Can somebody please explain?

Yesterday I read a post from a long term member here that he did a factory tour and he liked the tour, he put 3 s at the end of his post.

Today I can no longer find these posts!

Can someone please explain what happened here?

Thank's in advance!

Someone thought it had nothing to do with short term trading thread... However, seeing 3 smileys versus 3 frowns does have implications on how one would trade tsla.

 

[jhm]

I don't think the base model will happen for a while. There is two pieces of information that I think is important:

Elon's tweet about "fully operational GigaFactory needed". And now recently he said GigaFactory is not critical for Model 3 launch. Those statements contradict.

So either battery prices they pay have gone down or they have to wait until GF has depressed them further to sell the base model and he meant that GF is not critical to launch Model 3 which implies no base model at launch. Battery prices can't be crazy low though as the GM for Model S is not that low for it's price.

Either way they and Panasonic are on a steady path towards cheaper batteries.

No, you are missing the essential jargon being used herr. A fully functional GF is "not on the critical path" for the Model 3. This means the timing of this will come well in advance of anything that might cause a delay in the Model 3. The Gigafactory is required for the Model 3, but it will be built out to make TE products before it is needed for the the Model 3. So there is no contradiction here, just clarification about timing.

 

[flankspeed8]

Like the pre-market move of 3.5% in the green. Is it possible we have hit at least a short-term low? TSLA really held the 150 range last week beginning and ending the week around that SP.

 

[flankspeed8]

Tesla test drive segment on CNBC right now. The purpose is to: "Form those reservations into firm orders."

On location in Highland Park, IL

 

[Lump]

What is going on here?

Can somebody please explain?

Yesterday I read a post from a long term member here that he did a factory tour and he liked the tour, he put 3 s at the end of his post.

Today I can no longer find these posts!

Can someone please explain what happened here?

Thank's in advance!

I guess there is a secrete smiley face scale & 3 out of 10 wasn't bullish enough so it was deleted. Smileygate :biggrin:?

 

[lango]

No, you are missing the essential jargon being used herr. A fully functional GF is "not on the critical path" for the Model 3. This means the timing of this will come well in advance of anything that might cause a delay in the Model 3. The Gigafactory is required for the Model 3, but it will be built out to make TE products before it is needed for the the Model 3. So there is no contradiction here, just clarification about timing.

The way I think it is currently is that they don't need GF cell production to reduce cost per KWh for the Model 3 launch, but they do need it to get the base model of $35k viable. There is also the volume component with GF, that they need cell production there for the 500k vehicles. This is not really important imo as there is chance Panasonic or someone else could produce this number even without GF, but they would not commit to it back in 2013-2014 so GF being built was rationalized both as cost saving per KWh and the volume needed for Model 3.

Elon's tweet is still contradicting to what I think is the reality and what was said in the latest CC. Fully operational GF is not required for the launch of Model 3, only to get GM high enough.

Here is a link to the tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter:

 

[flankspeed8]

This was actually a great segment on CNBC...Very positive, talking about summon...."cool stuff like that is why people put down $5k for a reservation for a car they have never seen."

 

[Gerasimental]

Elon's tweet is still contradicting to what I think is the reality and what was said in the latest CC. Fully operational GF is not required for the launch of Model 3, only to get GM high enough.
Here is a link to the tweet: Elon Musk on Twitter:

The term critical path refers only to the timings and sequence of completing certain tasks. If a task (building GF) is not on the critical path to completing a project (model 3 mass deliveries), then that task can run for longer than its allocated time without having an impact on the delivery date of the overall project. This by no means at all means that the project can be delivered without the task being complete.

E.g. if you're baking bread, turning on the oven is a task that has to be completed. You can do this while you are waiting for you dough to rise. It only takes 10 seconds, but you can afford to take much longer with it, say 30 seconds, because you still need to wait for the dough to have risen anyway before you put it in the oven. Turning on the oven is not on the critical path to making bread, but you can still not make bread without turning on the oven.

Lets make some dough.

 

[eloder]

I find it illuminating to occasionally take a stroll through the comments and reviews posted by Tesla employees on the Glassdoor service.

I am struck by the recent pattern of complaints regarding "parts shortages." One sees it frequently in there. Have to take everything you read with a grain of salt, but it is another data point worth keeping an eye on. As are the incessant morale comments related to bad upper management and favoritism. Disgruntled employees, sure, but a pattern of disgruntlement that is interesting to an investor.

I suppose there have been all sorts of issues with the X rollout, and that's even now being reflected in Glassdoor.

I'm not too worried about that one, after reading through comments made by my own company on the matter

(You'll definitely see more and more of this in any large company that has customer-facing employees)

Elon's tweet about "fully operational GigaFactory needed". And now recently he said GigaFactory is not critical for Model 3 launch. Those statements contradict.

So either battery prices they pay have gone down or they have to wait until GF has depressed them further to sell the base model and he meant that GF is not critical to launch Model 3 which implies no base model at launch. Battery prices can't be crazy low though as the GM for Model S is not that low for it's price.

I'd definitely agree with you there. The Model S 60 kw battery was viable back in 2012, keep in mind. Add four years of ~7-10% annual cost reductions that have been happening for a while with lithium ion batteries. Subtract 20% volume of materials and replace aluminum going down to a smaller car. I'm pretty sure just those two facets alone make a higher-optioned Model 3 extremely viable and still with a strong gross margin.

Some of the higher options seem like they make huge margins for Tesla. Autopilot enabled, Supercharger hardware (if not included in the base model), Ludicrous capability are all options that likely cost Tesla very little, relative to what's charged.

My crazy out-there theory is that Model 3 will start up before the end of 2017, with a slow ramp that culminates in mass volume in late 2017 / early 2018 based on these, but I have zero evidence for it

 

[dreamingof3]

Let's stop treating 163 like it's the devil and running from it. Let us not forget we were much higher months ago! March higher TSLA!

Bangs hand on table begging for Julian to be re-instated.

 

[uselesslogin]

Let's stop treating 163 like it's the devil and running from it. Let us not forget we were much higher months ago! March higher TSLA!

Bangs hand on table begging for Julian to be re-instated.

We closed at $196 on February 1st and hit $199 during the day.

 

[Tenable]

I sold a large position at 162, looking to buy again at 155.

 

[JRP3]

Let's stop treating 163 like it's the devil and running from it. Let us not forget we were much higher months ago! March higher TSLA!

Bangs hand on table begging for Julian to be re-instated.

Julian can't move the stock. Do you really need hand holding?

 

[AlMc]

Julian can't move the stock. Do you really need hand holding?

Even if all on TMC combined their holdings we would not be able to move the stock in any significant way.

very quiet on TMC today

President's day hangover?

 

[dreamingof3]

Julian can't move the stock. Do you really need hand holding?

You may have misinterpreted my post. I like hearing from him and it has nothing to do with moving the stock.

 

[ibcs]

Even if all on TMC combined their holdings we would not be able to move the stock in any significant way.

very quiet on TMC today

President's day hangover?

Back in 2010, I could put a market order in for 5000 to 10000 shares and you could see the price run up. Today it seems to take 50,000 or 100,000 to have the same effect. No first hand experience, just watching the level 2 volume chart.