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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Guys considering the drop in share price I've found a Tesla I can afford



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A $500 Tesla? Radio Flyer launches Model S for kids - MarketWatch
 
MitchJi Where do you see 300 miles cited anywhere for model 3?
Nowhere. My speculation based on:
1. The Bolt has a 60kWh pack, and I believe EM with want to exceed that by a significant margin. Hence 70kWh.

And lf that's close enough to 300 miles they might want to go for it

No idea why anyone is so sure that 70kwh is impossible.
 
Nowhere. My speculation based on:
1. The Bolt has a 60kWh pack, and I believe EM with want to exceed that by a significant margin. Hence 70kWh.

And lf that's close enough to 300 miles they might want to go for it

No idea why anyone is so sure that 70kwh is impossible.

I agree with you but I think there is one difference between a model 3 and a bolt with equal battery sizes, you can supercharge the model 3 and keep going, with the bolt you have to turn around and go home or find a hotel to stay the night while you charge.
 
And why do you think Tesla will want to cannibalize Model S sales. If the Model 3 is presented as an appealing car, of a decent size, with 300 miles range for $35,000, I can't see Tesla selling a ton of Model S next year. That would ruin the company.

I'm not sure why that would happen. That'd be like saying the cheaper BMW models cannibalize the more expensive BMW models.

I think it's a mistake to assume the Model S and X will remain stagnant in the face of a Model 3 release. Wouldn't be surprised to see 100 kwh batteries in the S/X in two years along with interior quality updates as battery costs continue to drive down. Maybe Musk can eke out more performance from the S and X as well past Ludicrous :)
 
I doubt they can get above 10% of gross margin, if any at all, on a $35k model s with 70kWh battery before 2020.

Nowhere. My speculation based on:
1. The Bolt has a 60kWh pack, and I believe EM with want to exceed that by a significant margin. Hence 70kWh.

And lf that's close enough to 300 miles they might want to go for it

No idea why anyone is so sure that 70kwh is impossible.
 
I'm not sure why that would happen. That'd be like saying the cheaper BMW models cannibalize the more expensive BMW models.

I think it's a mistake to assume the Model S and X will remain stagnant in the face of a Model 3 release. Wouldn't be surprised to see 100 kwh batteries in the S/X in two years along with interior quality updates as battery costs continue to drive down. Maybe Musk can eke out more performance from the S and X as well past Ludicrous :)

1. The 7 series is considerably more luxurious and tech filled than the 3 series. The model 3 will need to have similar level of luxury and tech (as while as some improvements) to compete with the compact luxury class.

2. Model S buyers =/= S Class buyers. The stats have shown a lot of buyers coming from Priuses, and other lower cost cars. Many buy The model S because there is no car like it, not because it is 20% bigger.
 
No idea why anyone is so sure that 70kwh is impossible.

Pretty sure it is at the $35K price point of the base model. You're also focusing too much on pack size as opposed to actual range, which is more important. I have no doubt that the Model 3 will have better aerodynamics than the Bolt, which will translate into greater range per kWh. Tesla won't need the same pack size to get as much or more range as the Bolt.
 
Agree. And by using a smaller battery pack while providing more range will showcase Tesla's technology advantage which is a better case.

Pretty sure it is at the $35K price point of the base model. You're also focusing too much on pack size as opposed to actual range, which is more important. I have no doubt that the Model 3 will have better aerodynamics than the Bolt, which will translate into greater range per kWh. Tesla won't need the same pack size to get as much or more range as the Bolt.
 
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