Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ggr]

"If you could eliminate all of the carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, then you could use those fuels as long as you want,"

If you believe in the tooth fairy and you are willing to tolerate the health effects.

And so long as as long as you want is only about 30-50 years.

 

[maoing]

Oops, China A share down 4% again. But I believe US market has decoupled with China for now.

 

[madodel]

This is insanity:
Oil industry sees Paris climate deal as chance to innovate - Business Insider


If you believe in the tooth fairy and you are willing to tolerate the health effects.

Just as reality based as clean coal.

 

[geneclean55]

Oops, China A share down 4% again. But I believe US market has decoupled with China for now.

Hope so....looks like the Nikkei is doing ok also

 

[Causalien]

Hope so....looks like the Nikkei is doing ok also

China shares going down is bullish for USA stocks.

 

[Papafox]

China shares going down is bullish for USA stocks.

I assume this is because some of the money leaving the Chinese exchange will migrate to U.S. exchanges.

 

[Causalien]

I assume this is because some of the money leaving the Chinese exchange will migrate to U.S. exchanges.

With every droo in market , we get a drop in offshore reserve. It is flowing out directly. There is a lag time, and it is evenly distributed between markets, but concentrated in real estate.
Perfect storm as china is trying to make yuan a reserve currency so it cannot shut off the official channels for transfer..

 

[jhm]

You make some good points. However, other than Tesla, I don't see any catalysts for this happening for some time. Panasonic is a good example. They have the expertise and are the largest battery manufacturer in the World. Yet, half of Panasonic's stock value has been lost in the past three months (market cap now at ~20 billion). Panasonic should (with the help of those with the 250 billion dollars) be leading the construction of dozens of Gigafactories. They are not. Tesla had to persuade Panasonic to partner on Gigafactory1. Tesla can't be the only catalyst. If tesla grows 50 % a year for 10 years, we arrive at about 3 million electric cars. ICE car manufacturers will tolerate a lot of Tesla success before they finally are forced to embrace electric cars (regardless of what they say). Perhaps the Solar City solar panel gigafactory in Buffalo, New York is the correct model to accelerate battery gigafactory construction. New York State is building Solar City's Gigafactory with public funds.

Right, and this is precisely why Tesla will gain substantial market share of the EV market, maybe more than 20%. I expect ICE makers will be caught flat footed. The battery market for staionary batteries is heating up. So this will motivate battery makers to ramp up capacity, even as automakers drag their feet. So a good deal of capacity will emerge, but the automakers will compete with the stationary market for that capacity, and cells optimized for stationary are not necessarily optimal for autos. So whatever profit margin there may be in stationary, automakers will have to pay that to the battery makers as they try to catch up.

My view has been that critical displacement would occur between 2025 and 2029. Bloomberg's 2023 scenario is their most aggressive, and I believe it does overlook the logistical challenge of building out battery supply in a mere 7 year timeframe.

I had not thought of New York as a potential location for a Gigafactory, but they have been very accommodating to SolarCity. Perhaps the the state would be a super host to a Gigafactory as well.

- - - Updated - - -

Electric Vehicles Could Soon Reduce Oil Demand By 13 Million Barrels Per Day | OilPrice.com

Well, oilprice.com has done it. Nick Cunningham, who is one of the more renewable receptive writers at oilprice.com, has taken up Bloomberg's projections of the rise of electric vehicles. Nick sets out the issues in a straightforward way. He concludes with this:

The writing is on the wall – as a technology, battery costs will continue to decline as manufacturing and the chemistry improves. Oil companies can reduce costs, but commodities don’t see costs decline in the same way. Finite natural resources see costs rise as they become scarcer. In the long-term, very few people expect oil to be as cheap as it is today at around $30 per barrel. And to the extent that oil remains cheap indefinitely, it will be because EVs destroy demand. It is cliché at this point, but as the old adage goes: the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.

Investors emotionally vested in oil will not want to read this writing on the wall. But there it is.

 

[flankspeed8]

Well thanks to leap-day, we have an extra day of sales/production compared to last year which I am sure is welcome. But I hate to say that I am starting to get a little uneasy about this quarters deliveries. X ramp seems to be painfully stalled and not a whole lot of talk on the S board. Someone want to talk me down? Can the enthusiasm of the 3 dampen a potential miss is deliveries. Stock seems to be creeping up on little news which makes me feel like it could be ripe for a pull back at any hint of trouble.

 

[Hogfighter]

S deliveries are still going a full speed. Stock is creeping back up (IMO) as it often does before an announcement. Buy the rumor, Sell the news has worked more than a few times with TSLA.

 

[sub]

The one thing we don't know is how many X's have been produced but are sitting at the factory or SC's waiting for some touch up or a part or two. We know they made 14000 model S last qtr correct? No reason they can't repeat that this qtr that I know of. Not sure how many cars they have in the pipeline that they could empty out, but they could deliver a flood of X's in March once they get the kinks out.

 

[SBenson]

AutoPilot is a much bigger sales booster or sustainer than many people appreciate. We are not in the market for a Model S type car at all given the price level. But given the autopilot and the active safety that it brings (together with the passive safety the car has), we have zeroed in on buying it as the first car for my wife. If not for this, we would have simply waited for a model-3.

Speaking of which, any rumors on when autopilot 2.0 hardware will be released?

 

[uselesslogin]

Well thanks to leap-day, we have an extra day of sales/production compared to last year which I am sure is welcome. But I hate to say that I am starting to get a little uneasy about this quarters deliveries. X ramp seems to be painfully stalled and not a whole lot of talk on the S board. Someone want to talk me down? Can the enthusiasm of the 3 dampen a potential miss is deliveries. Stock seems to be creeping up on little news which makes me feel like it could be ripe for a pull back at any hint of trouble.

Well, someone received VIN 1239 yesterday for a production Model X. So there is more movement there than there was last month.

 

[Kenypowa]

AutoPilot is a much bigger sales booster or sustainer than many people appreciate. We are not in the market for a Model S type car at all given the price level. But given the autopilot and the active safety that it brings (together with the passive safety the car has), we have zeroed in on buying it as the first car for my wife. If not for this, we would have simply waited for a model-3.

Speaking of which, any rumors on when autopilot 2.0 hardware will be released?

Probably in the next couple months: Tesla focuses on bringing down price - Houston Chronicle

Tesla's Model 3, which the company will unveil on March 31, features the next generation of its existing technology, Straubel said.

 

[v12 to 12v]

The one thing we don't know is how many X's have been produced but are sitting at the factory or SC's waiting for some touch up or a part or two. We know they made 14000 model S last qtr correct? No reason they can't repeat that this qtr that I know of. Not sure how many cars they have in the pipeline that they could empty out, but they could deliver a flood of X's in March once they get the kinks out.

It took a long time for the Model S to ramp up to that rate. Supplier issues was a part of that. It is unclear whether supplier issues are all ironed out with the Model X.

 

[Causalien]

It took a long time for the Model S to ramp up to that rate. Supplier issues was a part of that. It is unclear whether supplier issues are all ironed out with the Model X.

Let's head to $198 this week

 

[JRP3]

Early positive partial review:

I'll have a full review of the Model X soon, but from what I was able to tell, it's everything Tesla and Musk have promised -- and more.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13475384/1/tesla-s-model-x-is-mind-blowing-in-how-awesome-it-is.html

 

[Hogfighter]

Let's head to $198 this week

If you said that 6 months ago, it would have had a totally different connotation. :smile:

 

[jesselivenomore]

Hugely important where TSLA, and the general markets close today to close the month for technical reasons. I'll do a write up if things play out. May have to change up my trading plan going forward.

 

[Drax7]

Early positive partial review:



http://www.thestreet.com/story/13475384/1/tesla-s-model-x-is-mind-blowing-in-how-awesome-it-is.html

Lack of significant model X deliveries still not apparent.
And now February is gone.

Need to overcome that to give me confidence .
Until that appears settled the risk of stock pullbacks
Is greater in my mind.


What is the evidence on the state of model X production?