Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Fallenone]

I agree. I don't know if they've covered their short position last year from 270, but if they haven't, this could be an attempt to let them cover at a lower price.

As with many short attacks, they attempt to leverage any perceived negative news into something quite out of proportion. In this case, I think they are working from weakness regarding estimated Model X deliveries, using it as excuse enough to go on the attack, and in the process they throw in everything including the kitchen sink.

 

[jhm]

Now that the Model X is out, we should probably expect the Lemon Law King to show up again too.

 

[eepic]

We seem to be holding steady here, but let's see if citron tries to follow up on their attack with a report outside market hours. The after-hours and pre-open markets are much thinner and more susceptible to speculators moving and setting the price.

 

[madodel]

Good old Citron Research says they are short(again) based on "supple and demand problems". $100 price target by end of year.

I find the white seats on my X very "supple".

 

[FredTMC]

I really want to see Tesla/Elon get with media/twitter by tomorrow and refute this citron BS. Tesla doesn't need this very public bear attack going into Model 3 launch.

 

[Curt Renz]

What the heck just happened. 5 point drop quick...bear attack?

Somebody sold a big block of shares for some reason

Low volume... my guess is we have somebody standing now with a quarter million shares short at $187ish

The impetus this afternoon was Andrew Left of Citron Research who tweeted to sell TSLA short. Where was he at the end of December? The hedge funds' computer algobots that scan the internet for headlines and tweets apparently reacted quickly. Their selling likely triggered stop loss limit orders set by weak longs. That would have instigated a cascade of sell orders in the manner of toppling dominoes. Many of the weak longs are undoubtedly day traders.

Some of the pullback from the day's high might have been Citron selling short before tweeting. If so, Left seems to know just how to time his tweets. This is not the first time he's done this with TSLA. He also did it in July of 2013. Of course short selling is his shtick and he has gone through this routine with other stocks.

 

[FredTMC]

The impetus this afternoon was Andrew Left of Citron Research who tweeted to sell TSLA short. Where was he at the end of December? The hedge funds' computer algobots that scan the internet for headlines and tweets apparently reacted quickly. Their selling likely triggered stop loss limit orders set by weak longs. That would have instigated a cascade of sell orders in the manner of toppling dominoes. Many of the weak longs are undoubtedly day traders.

Some of the pullback from the day's high might have been Citron selling short before tweeting. If so, Left seems to know just how to time his tweets. This is not the first time he's done this with TSLA. He also did it in July of 2013. Of course short selling is his shtick and he has gone through this routine with other stocks.

yep. I knew something was going on before the news broke. It was just too strange how badly TSLA was lagging.

now, we know what was going on.

really like to see Elon stick it to Citron quickly.

 

[larmor]

That is one sensitive algorithm if it only takes one tweet...

The impetus this afternoon was Andrew Left of Citron Research who tweeted to sell TSLA short. Where was he at the end of December? The hedge funds' computer algobots that scan the internet for headlines and tweets apparently reacted quickly. Their selling likely triggered stop loss limit orders set by weak longs. That would have instigated a cascade of sell orders in the manner of toppling dominoes. Many of the weak longs are undoubtedly day traders.

Some of the pullback from the day's high might have been Citron selling short before tweeting. If so, Left seems to know just how to time his tweets. This is not the first time he's done this with TSLA. He also did it in July of 2013. Of course short selling is his shtick and he has gone through this routine with other stocks.

 

[Curt Renz]

That is one sensitive algorithm if it only takes one tweet...

They're undoubtedly programmed to react almost instantly to anything from a source like Citron that has previously moved the market. Then a cascade follows including slightly slower (by milliseconds) algobots and humans who had previously entered stop loss limits. The tweet and the big drop on huge volume occurred during the same minute.

 

[aznt1217]

That is one sensitive algorithm if it only takes one tweet...

For reference

How Does One Fake Tweet Cause a Stock Market Crash? | TIME.com

 

[Curt Renz]

yep. I knew something was going on before the news broke. It was just too strange how badly TSLA was lagging.

now, we know what was going on.

really like to see Elon stick it to Citron quickly.

Elon can afford to bide his time for a few weeks. He can wait until he is able to report a cascade of orders for Model 3’s after the March 31 unveiling. In the meantime this month he can entice engineers and other professionals into the firm with stock options at strikes likely far lower than the future share price. Then in early April he can unleash a second “tsunami of hurt” against Citron and the legion of FUD worshipping short sellers. Of course the press may beat him to it, if the Tesla stores are jammed. The interest from young adults may far exceed any expectations.

 

[sundaymorning]

So no more recession talks for now?

Fading recession fears bring out the bulls

 

[FredTMC]

Elon can afford to bide his time for a few weeks. He can wait until he is able to report a cascade of orders for Model 3’s after the March 31 unveiling. In the meantime this month he can entice engineers and other professionals into the firm with stock options at strikes likely far lower than the future share price. Then in early April he can unleash a second “tsunami of hurt” against Citron and the legion of FUD worshipping short sellers. Of course the press may beat him to it, if the Tesla stores are jammed. The interest from young adults may far exceed any expectations.

It's not a few weeks. It's 30 days away plus a few more weeks to pile up reservations for Model 3

I'd agree with you if only a few weeks

 

[larmor]

Click bait from BI article on hedge fund manager looking to order model x, includes excerpt from tsla short...

Whitney Tilson on Tesla's Model X - Business Insider

Are listening citron algobot? Wants to order car since there is a 90 day happiness guarantee, and out of pocket lease for 3 years is not much.

 

[GoTslaGo]

That's one angry short. Yes I couldn't help to read it.

Love how he compared sensors between the MB (23) vs. Tesla (14). What he fails to mention is that with MB, what you get is what you get. Once you drive it home, it's yesterday's technology, whereas Tesla will continue to improve. I do not see any legacy automaker changing to Tesla's OTA update system. Yes you can argue I am a drinker of the Kool-aid (and for those youngsters out there, google: Jim Jones), but after having a 10+ history of driving and owning BMWs, I do not plan on going back. They're not bad, just Tesla is better.

 

[sundaymorning]

That's one angry short. Yes I couldn't help to read it.

Love how he compared sensors between the MB (23) vs. Tesla (14). What he fails to mention is that with MB, what you get is what you get. Once you drive it home, it's yesterday's technology, whereas Tesla will continue to improve. I do not see any legacy automaker changing to Tesla's OTA update system. Yes you can argue I am a drinker of the Kool-aid (and for those youngsters out there, google: Jim Jones), but after having a 10+ history of driving and owning BMWs, I do not plan on going back. They're not bad, just Tesla is better.

Shorts will always find a way to nitpick and cherry pick data. Personally, I don't click on the bait. After 2 years of reading both sides of the argument, I've decided that the bull case has a much higher chance of success, and by a very far margin. The only thing shorts and bears can pray for that will destroy Tesla, is an macro economic catastrophe. Good luck rolling the dice on that one shorts.

 

[Gerardf]

Pity we missed the strong Nasdaq yesterday.

New opportunity today, Asia closed 'very' green (+3% to +4.3 %) and Europe opened slightly higher.
I hope the market will see the Citron short attack yesterday for what it is, a quick profit making scheme by spreading FUD, and correct that today.


Found this about the short:
Tesla puts active after Citron calls for stock to fall Tesla March weekly 175 and 180 puts are active on total put volume of 46K contracts (33K calls) after Citron calls for stock to fall to $100. March weekly call option implied volatility is at 77, March is at 57, April is at 59; compared to its 52-week range of 29 to 93. Active puts volume suggests traders taking positions for downside price movement.

Source: Breaking News: TSLA latest news. - The Fly

 

[Hogfighter]

Shorts will always find a way to nitpick and cherry pick data. Personally, I don't click on the bait. After 2 years of reading both sides of the argument, I've decided that the bull case has a much higher chance of success, and by a very far margin. The only thing shorts and bears can pray for that will destroy Tesla, is an macro economic catastrophe. Good luck rolling the dice on that one shorts.

Well said. I still do read the bear articles just in case there's a new angle I haven't thought of though.

 

[aznt1217]

That's one angry short. Yes I couldn't help to read it.

Love how he compared sensors between the MB (23) vs. Tesla (14). What he fails to mention is that with MB, what you get is what you get. Once you drive it home, it's yesterday's technology, whereas Tesla will continue to improve. I do not see any legacy automaker changing to Tesla's OTA update system. Yes you can argue I am a drinker of the Kool-aid (and for those youngsters out there, google: Jim Jones), but after having a 10+ history of driving and owning BMWs, I do not plan on going back. They're not bad, just Tesla is better.

You can take that argument and point him to the car and driver autonomous systems comparison and say something to the affect of... So Tesla took the crown for best system, with LESS sensors? That's efficiency lol

 

[AlMc]

Well said. I still do read the bear articles just in case there's a new angle I haven't thought of though.

Yes. When it comes to investing my $, whether in TSLA, FB, APPL,...etc., I want as much info as possible to make the best decision possible.