Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Johan]

Why buy now when the stock was on sale for a lot less a couple of weeks ago? It was a better buy then.

Because a lot of buy orders keeps the price up so we can close above $200.

But I like your approach to stock trading: buy low and sell high. I might try this strategy one day.

 

[MikeC]

Care to share your reservation number? How many X do you think Tesla is producing now?
The rate mentioned in Q4 delivery note was 238/week at the end of 2015. But the insideevs.com estimate is less than half of that for each of Jan & Feb. Let's see what March brings.
BTW, was there a test drive event in LA?

I reserved in September 2015 on the night of the reveal and I think I was one of the first people to not get a reservation number. Yes, I did the Meet Model X event in Burbank about a month ago. I think it was the second one they did after the NorCal one. The guy who called specifically referenced that I attended the event so they are probably only following up with people who did.

No idea what the current rate is but I suspect it's in flux depending on the constraint du jour, but I do suspect that on the whole they are making good progress. If we correlate it to when the S was revealed (June 2012), it seems like we are more or less where the S was in December 2012, in terms of deliveries.

 

[Irishjugg]

Why buy now when the stock was on sale for a lot less a couple of weeks ago? It was a better buy then.

For short term speculators who picked up some stock at $150, now might the time to take some profits.

Why now? I honestly don't think doing below 180 again is very likely. Took a bunch of silly macro apocalypse predictions to go below 180 and I don't see it happening again, I think it's more likely we see 220 in a week or two than 180 so if short terming I'd wait for that.

 

[Causalien]

Why buy now when the stock was on sale for a lot less a couple of weeks ago? It was a better buy then.

For short term speculators who picked up some stock at $150, now might the time to take some profits.

Because what we just experienced is a correction.

 

[dmckinstry]

Because what we just experienced is a correction.

And IMHO the correction still isn't finished.

 

[AlMc]

And IMHO the correction still isn't finished.

Hope you are right because the down trend started at about $240-250 IIRC.

 

[sunhelm]

Basically $201, very nice.

What is striking about this run from the bottom, is that it is not truly about TSLA. Look at any chart, AMZN, NFLX for instance, it is the same "V". ($SPX too nearly the same). That means we aren't even seeing any run-up "buy the rumor" pressure for the model 3 release. Think about that for a second. There are huge positive catalysts on the calendar and we seem to be getting no or little movement on that. We *should* enjoy a greater Beta in March at some point on up days and eventually decouple and go up on down days as well. The shorts might be feeling it worse if they (as they seem to have done) chose TSLA to be a high beta short candidate. In summary, it feels like we are a rocket on a launchpad that hasn't even launched, rather the launchpad is rising.

..and now we switch to another rocket themed launch happening now...:smile:

 

[Yggdrasill]

I took some profits at 202. I was completely all in at 146, with a margin call looming uncomfortably close. Before I scrounged together some extra funds, I think the margin call would have occured at around 135. I do think the SP will continue upwards, but now I at least have some ammo if the market gets irrational again.

So, just saying that taking profits isn't always a bad thing.

Now (unless it drops), I'm just waiting for the SP to go above 250 before I make my next move.

 

[mmd]

I took some profits at 202. I was completely all in at 146, with a margin call looming uncomfortably close. Before I scrounged together some extra funds, I think the margin call would have occurred at around 135. I do think the SP will continue upwards, but now I at least have some ammo if the market gets irrational again.

Very nice! Wish I had the guts What's your average price?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Very nice! Wish I had the guts What's your average price?

Sadly not lower than 185. I misjudged the extent of the drop and bought a lot of shares in the 180-200 range. I kept buying all the way down though, but not as much as I would have liked.

 

[Causalien]

Sadly not lower than 185. I misjudged the extent of the drop and bought a lot of shares in the 180-200 range. I kept buying all the way down though, but not as much as I would have liked.

I think most of us made out like bandits. My first $230 position for a gap close is still red though.

 

[ggies07]

Ladies and gentlemen, if this doesn't speed up the adoption of EVs and solar, not sure what will.....

 

[dgpcolorado]

I took some profits at 202. I was completely all in at 146, with a margin call looming uncomfortably close. Before I scrounged together some extra funds, I think the margin call would have occured at around 135. I do think the SP will continue upwards, but now I at least have some ammo if the market gets irrational again.

So, just saying that taking profits isn't always a bad thing.

Now (unless it drops), I'm just waiting for the SP to go above 250 before I make my next move.

Well done! I bought a few shares at $200 and $154 on the way down (TSLA is just a toy for me; I'm a value investor not a momentum speculator because I have been living entirely on my portfolio for nearly two decades). I was hoping for $125 for the next buy limit order but it doesn't appear that it will hit that price in this cycle. Next time?

 

[dmckinstry]

Hope you are right because the down trend started at about $240-250 IIRC.

$240.01 on Dec. 31st. It had been creeping up to that since early December. I'm guessing it rose to that simply because EOY.

But, with the exception of May, etc. '13, I've never anticipated the rises and falls correctly.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Some rumor about TM increasing battery capacity soon.

 

[Cattledog]

Some rumor about TM increasing battery capacity soon.

5 kWh in 4 years was not 5%/year, so let's bring it!

 

[chickensevil]

Some rumor about TM increasing battery capacity soon.

Rumor comes from one of our own having hacked the model S firmware. Jason said it was in the firmware for around two months now, but they just recently added the PNG images of the badging so he finally let it leak. P100DL is going to be a thing.

 

[AlMc]

Rumor comes from one of our own having hacked the model S firmware. Jason said it was in the firmware for around two months now, but they just recently added the PNG images of the badging so he finally let it leak. P100DL is going to be a thing.

Yes. Many don't like some of the hacking/posting that wk057 does but he provides valuable information...even though I can't understand some of the 'technical stuff':biggrin:

Thanks Jason.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Rumor comes from one of our own having hacked the model S firmware. Jason said it was in the firmware for around two months now, but they just recently added the PNG images of the badging so he finally let it leak. P100DL is going to be a thing.

Agreed. AFAIK it's battery's ability to provide current that is current power bottleneck, not motors. Higher capacity battery will likely be able to offer higher peak output, so we may see some improvements in acceleration.
I'm guessing that Model S P90DL is almost 100% traction limited nowadays (for takeoff), so 0-60 time may not change, while 0-100 will probably improve.
However, more importantly, this will help Model X close the gap to Model S acceleration.
Which just will make it unbeatable SUV for any ICE maker, and SUV to have in posh neighborhoods.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes. Many don't like some of the hacking/posting that wk057 does but he provides valuable information...even though I can't understand some of the 'technical stuff':biggrin:

It undermines Tesla. You won't like it too much if it affects sales, thus the bottom line, thus the stock price. It's even more distasteful when he taunts Elon Musk on Twitter like he did.