Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[CatB]

And somehow, I can imagine Elon, not only expecting people to do what wk057 did, but kind of also accepting it. Maybe even to the point of "here's an easter egg to reward the talented and persistent hacker souls out there."

But to Krugerrand's point - when you buy a product that includes a "license" to software, that doesn't mean you can do whatever you want to it. Hacking through it to understand it, probably okay. Reverse-compiling it and selling it as your own, not okay.

 

[Lump]

I thought it was abundantly clear from your posting on this forum in general, and in the investor's section and the 691 hp threads in particular, that it is in fact you who consider yourself Tesla's knight in shining armor. You're definitely more protective of Tesla than Elon himself. Since it's obvious you believe Tesla can do no wrong, ever, whatsoever, your opinion on this matter too is totally unsurprising.

I had a reputation to give as well.

 

[darthy001]

Elons tweet on the P100D-hacking subject should be EOD

Love that response!

 

[Crowded Mind]

Elons tweet on the P100D-hacking subject should be EOD

Love that response!

 

[Johan]

View attachment 113819

Boom. The Internet hereby bestows +1000 Elon points to user "Whizkid_057".

High five dude!

 

[Johan]

Investor related: I "cracked" wk's hash and posted on Twitter and TMC. My TMC post is timestamped 3.48 PM yesterday (my time). It's now the next day, admittedly a Saturday, 8.16 PM (my time). Conclusion: it takes 28 hours for something like this to migrate from TMC to Elon himself, and him reacting. More important news, especially if catastrophically negative, may of course reach him much faster. But he doesn't read TMC so he must have people doing this, evaluating and reporting one level up if they deem the info "important". Then this level evaluates the info again and possibly contacts Elon. These steps take some time. So if there are ever credible important news appearing here first during trading hours; by all means act on it the way it's (hopefully) obviously going to impact TSLA.

 

[The Blue Owl]

View attachment 113819

There goes the vandalism argument.

 

[Johan]

Makes a lot of sense they would announce a "100" kWh battery when they start cell production in the GF with these first cells going in the newly announced 100 packs. Investors take heed: GF is about to take off quickly! We're likely collectively underestimating the possible short term massive impact the GF upstart having. This is because we've all intuitively understood the long term impact and importance of the GF, so we've "incorporated in to our valuations" since we heard about it, while many investors and especially the shorts, can not understand this until it becomes to clear to them as this: The Gigafactory is ACTUALLY producing ACTUAL battery cells that go in to ACTUAL Teslas being driven by ACTUAL costumers in two months.

 

[Lessmog]

Investor related: I "cracked" wk's hash and posted on Twitter and TMC. My TMC post is timestamped 3.48 PM yesterday (my time). It's now the next day, admittedly a Saturday, 8.16 PM (my time). Conclusion: it takes 28 hours for something like this to migrate from TMC to Elon himself, and him reacting. More important news, especially if catastrophically negative, may of course reach him much faster. But he doesn't read TMC so he must have people doing this, evaluating and reporting one level up if they deem the info "important". Then this level evaluates the info again and possibly contacts Elon. These steps take some time. So if there are ever credible important news appearing here first during trading hours; by all means act on it the way it's (hopefully) obviously going to impact TSLA.

A similar observation has been called the Melitta effect: It takes some time for the useful essence to filter through, and the waste is collected inside the cone.

I also got the spread reputation error, so please accept this as a token. :smile:

Same for wk057.

 

[sundaymorning]

You can't change the world all in one day and you sure as heck won't be able to please everyone. People want their X ASAP, they want a 500 mile Tesla for $10k, they also want free super chargers on every mile, they want Tesla to communicate like a smitten teenager in love, they want Elon to tweet and reply to every tweeter, address every problem, investors want the stock price higher, folding seats to completely fold down, cup holders, more storage and buttons in their car, better visors and ludicrous speed faster than a Ferrari. They want to hear every complaint about Tesla and for Elon to address it ASAP, they want access to the gigafactory and for it to be built in their own state.

C'mon folks, we can barely juggle _____ our own homes, let Elon and the team do their thing and time will take care of the rest. In the meantime, invest long so you can sit back and laugh at all the complainers. We have people pounding on their chest, stating I knew this was going to happen... blah blah blah and that's why I'm critical of Tesla. Never mind that Elon is working day in and day out to accelerate the advent... the stock is at $200 so there must be inherent problems with the company, it must be, GASP--DEMAND! Run for the hills..While on the other end, you have people who are not so critical and who couldn't care less about imperfections along the way. Guess what folks, Tesla doesn't walk on water, and that's ok, point to me another company that does and I'll put my money there. SMH, short term investors, short sightedness seem to go hand in hand. keep in mind that as I type this, Tesla is likely already addressing the issue. There are people who cares a little too much about their money, and there are those who care more about Tesla and the future of our planet, that's why TSLA is trading at $200. Can you imagine if every investor reacted to WK? You need people like Kruggarand, unless you're short or unless you're a long and "trying to help" the company. If you want to help that much folks? Tesla is always hiring! My reputation given to Kruggarand. Thank you for defending Tesla, just letting you know there are many people on your side, just as there are those on the other.

 

[Lessmog]

Makes a lot of sense they would announce a "100" kWh battery when they start cell production in the GF with these first cells going in the newly announced 100 packs. Investors take heed: GF is about to take off quickly! We're likely collectively underestimating the possible short term massive impact the GF upstart having. This is because we've all intuitively understood the long term impact and importance of the GF, so we've "incorporated in to our valuations" since we heard about it, while many investors and especially the shorts, can not understand this until it becomes to clear to them as this: The Gigafactory is ACTUALLY producing ACTUAL battery cells that go in to ACTUAL Teslas being driven by ACTUAL costumers in two months.

Sorry to clog up the thread, but this is another deeply important point to ponder.

Meanwhile, let's all try to be a little more friendly around here. How about a bit of Kumbaya-themed poetry? :wink: [Ouch!] :redface: [At least, throw soft tomatoes!]

 

[Cattledog]

You can't change the world all in one day and you sure as heck won't be able to please everyone. People want their X ASAP, they want a 500 mile Tesla for $10k, they also want free super chargers on every mile, they want Tesla to communicate like a smitten teenager in love, they want Elon to tweet and reply to every tweeter, address every problem, investors want the stock price higher, folding seats to completely fold down, cup holders, more storage and buttons in their car, better visors and ludicrous speed faster than a Ferrari. They want to hear every complaint about Tesla and for Elon to address it ASAP, they want access to the gigafactory and for it to be built in their own state.

Pretty much sums up our entitlement society. Good post!

 

[MitchJi]

I don't understand how the P100D hack could possibly damage Tesla, or why it matters. Of course Tesla is going to increase their pack sizes and 100kWh is a logical upgrade. The question is when. Move along folks, nothing to see here.

IMO thinking that this means GF cell production is imminent is a leap. They announced GF Cell production would start end of 2016 for TE. Why would they hide the fact that they were going to start producing car cells? Before they do that they will almost for sure move automobile pack production to the GF, (as they recently announced for TE).

 

[mrdoubleb]

Makes a lot of sense they would announce a "100" kWh battery when they start cell production in the GF with these first cells going in the newly announced 100 packs. Investors take heed: GF is about to take off quickly! We're likely collectively underestimating the possible short term massive impact the GF upstart having. This is because we've all intuitively understood the long term impact and importance of the GF, so we've "incorporated in to our valuations" since we heard about it, while many investors and especially the shorts, can not understand this until it becomes to clear to them as this: The Gigafactory is ACTUALLY producing ACTUAL battery cells that go in to ACTUAL Teslas being driven by ACTUAL costumers in two months.

Hmm... so do we expect that come April GF1 would actually already start manufacturing the new cell geometry they are designing for M3? That would kind of blow my mind... somehow I always thought the new cells would first come out with M3 in 18 months.

Or did you mean the same cells as today just another revision that gets us to the required energy density to do 100kwh?

 

[dc_h]

Almost certainly enhancement to the existing batteries to increase density. The GF will be busy with stationary solutions for the rest of this year. Panasonic will be installing the cell production systems this year with production of cells slated to start end of 2016. Seems unlikely they would move the date up this much. Would be awesome, but very doubtful.
Hope I'm wrong. Either way, 100Kwh will be good for sales, perception and stock price. This would get the Model S to 300 miles on a charge and the X to about 270, and possibly increase acceleration from 60-100mph, where high end ICE cars are still faster.
Sorry if this stole any thunder for Elon, but I think this is just more buzz for Tesla leading up to Model 3 reveal.

Hmm... so do we expect that come April GF1 would actually already start manufacturing the new cell geometry they are designing for M3? That would kind of blow my mind... somehow I always thought the new cells would first come out with M3 in 18 months.

Or did you mean the same cells as today just another revision that gets us to the required energy density to do 100kwh?

 

[Johan]

Hmm... so do we expect that come April GF1 would actually already start manufacturing the new cell geometry they are designing for M3? That would kind of blow my mind... somehow I always thought the new cells would first come out with M3 in 18 months.

Or did you mean the same cells as today just another revision that gets us to the required energy density to do 100kwh?

By same cells you mean 18650? (As opposed to say 20700?). I don't know.

My point is even cells identical to Panasonic cells from Japan coming out of the GF and in to cars in the second half of 2016 will be STARTLING to shorts.

 

[mrdoubleb]

By same cells you mean 18650? (As opposed to say 20700?). I don't know.

My point is even cells identical to Panasonic cells from Japan coming out of the GF and in to cars in the second half of 2016 will be STARTLING to shorts.

Yeah same 18650, obviously with improved secret sauce inside. We know for Model 3 they are designing a brand new cell from the ground up. I always thought the GF will only produce the new cell they won't move equipment for 18650 in, that stays with Panasonic in Japan.

They will start (have started for Energy) assembling packs in GF as soon as the roof is up, though and those would be Pana 18650s - latest Tesla revision.

But yeah, whichever way, a 100kwh pack will be a punch in the gut for shorts as it will further improve GM and create renewed buzz. Not to mention the competitors which are promising to beat the 2012 Model S in 2018. That gap just keeps widening.

 

[WarpedOne]

Here is the question for all the people who teared app art the battery pack.

Is there any room for longer/higher cells in current enclosure design?

Cells from GF are supposed to be longer/higher, meaning new battery pack will be 'fatter' for a few mm and car total height will increase a bit and/or road clearance will be reduced. Design of under-body panels will also have to change etc.

 

[Lessmog]

Here is the question for all the people who teared app art the battery pack.

Is there any room for longer/higher cells in current enclosure design?

Cells from GF are supposed to be longer/higher, meaning new battery pack will be 'fatter' for a few mm and car total height will increase a bit and/or road clearance will be reduced. Design of under-body panels will also have to change etc.

Sorry, I can only go with what I think here ;-) but I agree with your assessment. Too much trouble to change this crucial part of a live platform -- it must alter the physical dimensions to go for the new cell size in S or X. Batt chem would be a different case!

However, the new cells could more easily adapt in Power products, and obviously in Model 3.

And I doubt it's very difficult or even expensive to put some cell rolling machines into GF now; those must be pretty cheap, standard items.

 

[dakh]

Yeah same 18650, obviously with improved secret sauce inside. We know for Model 3 they are designing a brand new cell from the ground up. I always thought the GF will only produce the new cell they won't move equipment for 18650 in, that stays with Panasonic in Japan.

They will start (have started for Energy) assembling packs in GF as soon as the roof is up, though and those would be Pana 18650s - latest Tesla revision.

But yeah, whichever way, a 100kwh pack will be a punch in the gut for shorts as it will further improve GM and create renewed buzz. Not to mention the competitors which are promising to beat the 2012 Model S in 2018. That gap just keeps widening.

Sorry that makes no sense to me. Why would they be making good old 18650's there? The whole idea is to make cells optimized for the application and then bundle them into packs that go into cars right then and there.

Edit: Oh I see what you've done there. So you think they're gonna be making packs from cells made in Japan under GF roof? That might be the case for some time, hopefully not for long though!

- - - Updated - - -

Here is the question for all the people who teared app art the battery pack.

Is there any room for longer/higher cells in current enclosure design?

Cells from GF are supposed to be longer/higher, meaning new battery pack will be 'fatter' for a few mm and car total height will increase a bit and/or road clearance will be reduced. Design of under-body panels will also have to change etc.

AFAIR they saved some room because of the way the ends of the cell are designed. So maybe pack-wise it'll be close enough to just, um, stick it in.

So overall it's a good point that folks might get some rude awakening with GF coming online but we don't actually understand how that is going to play out exactly. Need more solid info on details. The biggest of them being not even the geometry of the cells but the capabilities of the chemistry they're going to start with. I personally am pretty sure the 2mm in question isn't something we need to worry about. The end caps are different and it'll all fit just fine into existing stuff.