Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Gerasimental]

I can't wait for Jesse to come off banishment to hear where he re-entered. He could have had a limit to buy right at $220, or could have waited for it to sustain for 24-48 hours before pulling the trigger. I would be equally interested to know if he hadn't entered yet, and what the reasoning behind that would be.

I think his criteria was either 3 consecutive days green or a break above on volume of roughly double the daily average. Neither has happened yet.I suspect if this holds in the mid 220s tomorrow he will enter.

 

[FredTMC]

I have to respectfully disagree on your recommendation. This thread is always about whatever is currently pressing the buttons of active Tesla investors. We might not always be happy or interested in where the discussion goes. I'm certainly never happy when the discussion is dominated about bearish concerns, but sometimes I need to step back and appreciate that this is in fact useful information about what is on the minds of people actively trading shares of Tesla. So I would invite us to think a little more reflectively. Ask yourself: Why do some people feel passionately enough about a particular issue to keep debating it here? What does this stir up for me? Why am I engaged or not emotionally engaged in this? How are my unstated assumptions different from the assumptions others seem to be making? Etc. The fact that you wish certain people would take their thoughts somewhere else likely means that there are ideas that you are wishing to suppress. So get to the root of that. You could be filtering out something that is important, something which you are presently not able to put a positive value on, but may prove out to be quite important.

Regarding yesterday's debate about granting priority to Tesla owners, I feel that discussion was helpful fir all participants. We exposed alot of issues and assumptions that are not always communicated. I found my own thoughts on the topic evolving and taking a clearer form as the discussion proceeded. So I felt it was a worthwhile discussion which is why I continued to press my critique in the face of substantial resistance. We now recognize that many investors have short term anxieties about the Model 3 roll out and this is at the heart of why giving priority to experienced Tesla owners matters to them. Complementing this I was able to articulate the importance of long-term customer base formation and connected that with incremental market cap. Both viewpoints are critical to making informed investments in Tesla and being able to emotional adjust to issues as they emerge. So in all I felt it was very healthy and productive debate.

These are the sort of useful discussions that happen here in this thread, and I am grateful to these conversation partners.

Thanks Jim. I completely agree

As a long term investor for many years, I rely on this thread to discuss whatever is affecting the stock price in the short term.

No additional moderation is required. It's not hundreds of posts per day

 

[jhm]

I do think that the disussion of topics that are only slightly related to TSLA short term price movements is interesting and important as well. I just think that these kind of discussions would be more valued in their own and separate thread, e.g. it makes it easier to find these discussions at a later point in time. Unfortunately these discussions tend to get burried and lost in the short term thread just too quickly.

And btw jhm, you know that I highly apprechiate your ideas and input here, thank's for your valuable input!

Thanks. I do try to move discussions into other threads. I've even opened up many new threads. But it is actually very hard to move a discussion. Most often it just dies in transit.

People may not recognize that when they are calling for someone else to move their discussion, that path will likely kill the discussion. So it often sounds like a reasonable appeal, but in reality it is a move to suppress a discussion. Of course, I am all in favor of people opening up their own threads voluntarily.

 

[FredTMC]

Isn't this SP movement during the last days/weeks atonishing?
Anybody else amazed by that incredible v-shape slide and recovery since beginning of this year?
Almost no consolidation at the bottom but a strong bounce that continues even today!
Needless to say that personally I am very happy about this quick recovery

Hope that everybody else enjoys this quick SP recovery!

Are we in a buy the dip mode till Model 3 reveal or maybe even beyond that?

Yes, it's been truly amazing. Macro certainly helped. You couldn't ask for a quicker recovery.

 

[geneclean55]

Isn't this SP movement during the last days/weeks atonishing?
Anybody else amazed by that incredible v-shape slide and recovery since beginning of this year?
Almost no consolidation at the bottom but a strong bounce that continues even today!
Needless to say that personally I am very happy about this quick recovery

Hope that everybody else enjoys this quick SP recovery!

Are we in a buy the dip mode till Model 3 reveal or maybe even beyond that?

I got in at 190 for common stock and am very happy so far. I bought my first ever couple of calls recently, at what I knew were relatively expensive prices due to the surging stock price. However even those are doing nicely just a couple days in .
Fingers crossed

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

No idea what will happen the day on the 26th. However, I'll be a bit surprised i the first year of production isn't sold out within 1-3 days. How many locations (stores + service centers) does Tesla have globally? I think Tesla is taking deposits at all its locations starting at 1pm EST.

Perhaps most significant, Elon Musk and Lyndon Rive held an event last night at the Gigafactory. A bit surprised no-one is reporting about this. Can anyone find a video of what was said? I've been wondering when Elon would begin to thrust his muscles in Nevada.

Actor Leonardo DiCaprio also stopped by.

Net metering is a net positive for utilities and for solar customers. The cost for utilities to install and maintain new infrusture is never included, when utilities bring up the supposed "solar subsidy". Also, solar acts as a buffer for the grid. Once most solar customers have battery storage, the utilities would be crazy to not support residential solar. I see a scenario where the President could do something to prohibit states from discriminating against Solar customers. Microgrids would make it almost impossible for someone to hack into and compromise the grid. It's seems like a no brainier argument.

* In Germany, I think there are laws that allow individual people to sell energy emong themselves bypassing the grid altogether.

In an effort to lobby Nevada lawmakers for the development of solar energy following the Public Utilities Commission’s decision to slash net metering, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive organized an event Wednesday night at the Gigafactory for Nevada politicians and top government officials.

Tesla and SolarCity executives held presentations meant to be “forward-looking and educational” and the whole event also included a tour of the Gigafactory.

Elon Musk and SolarCity CEO organized an event for Nevada lawmakers at Tesla’s Gigafactory to lobby for solar energy

 

[Fallenone]

Shocking IEA Data Points to Flat CO2 Emissions in 2015 | OilPrice.com

Global energy related CO2 emissions have leveled out at 32.1 Gt/year. Let's see if we can push this down below 32 Gt this year.

Bonus points to first person who can estimate how many EVs running on emission free electricity are needed to displace 1 Gt of CO2 emmisions.

I got 333m. 250 g CO2/km with annual 12k km of use.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I got 333m. 250 g CO2/km with annual 12k km of use.

What about N20 and Methane?

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/climate_change/pdf/nitrous_oxide_emissions.pdf

 

[Intl Professor]

I think you either did not read my post well, or I have not explained myself well in my post.

- my post has not in any way aimed to suppress any opinion. Why would I want that ?
- my post has not in any way targeted specific individuals.

Actually I much value your posts, and also see value discussing the Model-3 reservation method. I just do not think this is the correct thread for some of posts I recently see here.

My post is about suggesting to keep this a "Short-Term TSLA Price Movements" news, analysis and opinion thread.
Actually, even this discussion should be held in another thread.

I guess we simply have a different view on what information we expect to see posted in this thread.

These are the sort of useful discussions that happen here in this thread, and I am grateful to these conversation partners.

Although an infrequent poster, I am one of the most egregious examples of off-thread contributors since I am interested and competent only in political questions in my view which affect the environment of investing. Perhaps there is already a way to help those who have different interests that might impinge on topics overlapping another thread. What about an easier way to give our posts an opportunity for a topic? That way I could skip over more technical market discussions--option choices for example which are thoroughly appropriate for this thread--which I am totally ignorant about and so wise enough to remain a long only investor (after moving my average cost per share from $29.90 to $36 in one frilling trade!).

 

[jhm]

I think you either did not read my post well, or I have not explained myself well in my post.

- my post has not in any way aimed to suppress any opinion. Why would I want that ?
- my post has not in any way targeted specific individuals.

Actually I much value your posts, and also see value discussing the Model-3 reservation method. I just do not think this is the correct thread for some of posts I recently see here.

My post is about suggesting to keep this a "Short-Term TSLA Price Movements" news, analysis and opinion thread.
Actually, even this discussion should be held in another thread.

I guess we simply have a different view on what information we expect to see posted in this thread.

No hard feelings. I get your point. But discussions happen where they happen. They are very hard to move with shutting down or fundamentally altering the discussion. The main reason why is that the conversation partners change. Some participants will move to the new location, but most will not. So it is a fundamentally different conversation somewhere else. One could say this is just fine because only the participants who really want the discuss will take it elsewhere, but I think even reluctant participants matter. How they react or fail to react is important. I suspect that most of the people disagreeing with me yesterday would not have reacted or participated at all had I taken my points elsewhere. I challenged their assumptions and pressed their buttons because I was here and not somewhere else.

For my part, I was not trying to make a big deal of any of this. I had made a few light comments about Tesla offering cuts in line, and others took me to task for it. Fair enough. If they want disagree with me here in this thread, then I will attempt to clarify my thoughts and reply to them here in this thread. So I did, and even more people jumped in to disagree with me. Fine, I will continue to hold up my end of the conversation. In the midst of that sort of dynamic, how am I to move the conversation elsewhere? I tried my best not to respond to every reaction, and by evening I just stopped reading the thread to allow the discussion to subside. I try very hard not to simply repeat myself, but only reply if there is something to add or help move the conversation in more fruitful directions. So it is not clear to me how I could have taken the conversation elsewhere. People objected here, so I replied here.

But then other people start objecting to even the presence of the discussion here. What am I supposed to do? Where are we supposed to take that discussion? Honestly, if you don't want to have a certain discussion here, say nothing. Just let it pass.

 

[Fallenone]

What about N20 and Methane?

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/climate_change/pdf/nitrous_oxide_emissions.pdf

jhm's figure didn't say CO2 equivalent so I guess it''s just CO2. Plus, although the global warming potential of N2O is very high, emission of N2O from average ICE vehicles is quite small so the end result is just around 2% of the CO2 they emit (http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es9903330). And I don't think ICE vehicles emit methane at all, do they?

 

[jhm]

I got 333m. 250 g CO2/km with annual 12k km of use.

That's helpful. I tend to think driving in the US is about 12k to 15k miles per year or 20k to 25k km per year. So 160 to 200 million EVs. But different countries are going to have different annual mileage. So I'm still not sure what to use globally.

To put this into perspective, Bloomberg sees oil disrupted once there are about 50M EVs. Moreover to get there by 2024, the fleet continues to double every two years. So maybe around 2028 or so EVs will have reduced CO2 levels by 1 Gt/y. That would be a major accomplishment.

What this has to do with the short-term price of Tesla I do not know, but it is definitely why many of us can get excited about owning this stock. Part of the benefits of owning a piece of Tesla is the pride of being part of the solution. Driving a 1 Gt reduction by 2028 out of 32 Gt ptoblem is a very big deal.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'd really prefer this rebound to happen without oil rallying but oh well.

 

[uselesslogin]

Fun fact: We are now above the closing price of New Years Day.

 

[Gerardf]

What this has to do with the short-term price of Tesla I do not know, but it is definitely why many of us can get excited about owning this stock. Part of the benefits of owning a piece of Tesla is the pride of being part of the solution. Driving a 1 Gt reduction by 2028 out of 32 Gt ptoblem is a very big deal.

I agree it is very interesting information, but as you agree yourself, it is not "Short-term TSLA price" related information, and that happens to be the name of this specific thread. The whole idea of having sections & threads in a forum is to keep discussions relevant to the specific subject.

The information on the subject you use as an example is certainly interesting and I do follow it with interest. In fact it is relevant and interesting enough to be found and referred to in the longer term. I DO think it has investor relevant information, so in the investor section for sure, but (to my opinion) it simply does not fit the SHORT-term thread in the investor section. Naturally, short topics in any thread tend to evolve and and divert over time, however the aim should be for that not to happen and keep the tread postings relevant to the specific tread as much as possible.

My two cents :
Maybe the an idea form last year should be reconsidered, making two threads out of this one :
- a generic anything-investors-related discussion thread
- A true short-term-TSLA-price-movements thread that acts as a TSLA share news aggregator, etc, etc (see my earlier post on this subject).
Actually THIS post would belong in the generic thread, and not here.

 

[Fallenone]

That's helpful. I tend to think driving in the US is about 12k to 15k miles per year or 20k to 25k km per year. So 160 to 200 million EVs. But different countries are going to have different annual mileage. So I'm still not sure what to use globally.

To put this into perspective, Bloomberg sees oil disrupted once there are about 50M EVs. Moreover to get there by 2024, the fleet continues to double every two years. So maybe around 2028 or so EVs will have reduced CO2 levels by 1 Gt/y. That would be a major accomplishment.

What this has to do with the short-term price of Tesla I do not know, but it is definitely why many of us can get excited about owning this stock. Part of the benefits of owning a piece of Tesla is the pride of being part of the solution. Driving a 1 Gt reduction by 2028 out of 32 Gt ptoblem is a very big deal.

I intentionally used a lower number for world's average compared to US average because gasoline in US is cheap compared to most other places in the world and US drivers like to drive more (a major factor resulting in the US being the country with one of the highest CO2 emission per capita in the world).

But to be honest, I'm a little dishearten by this result. 333m is about a quarter of the total cars now. And even if we assume they are replaced by EV powered by 0 emission electricity source, we are only reducing 3% of the total CO2 emission.

 

[jhm]

I agree it is very interesting information, but as you agree yourself, it is not "Short-term TSLA price" related information, and that happens to be the name of this specific thread. The whole idea of having sections & threads in a forum is to keep discussions relevant to the specific subject.

The information on the subject you use as an example is certainly interesting and I do follow it with interest. In fact it is relevant and interesting enough to be found and referred to in the longer term. I DO think it has investor relevant information, so in the investor section for sure, but (to my opinion) it simply does not fit the SHORT-term thread in the investor section. Naturally, short topics in any thread tend to evolve and and divert over time, however the aim should be for that not to happen and keep the tread postings relevant to the specific tread as much as possible.

My two cents :
Maybe the an idea form last year should be reconsidered, making two threads out of this one :
- a generic anything-investors-related discussion thread
- A true short-term-TSLA-price-movements thread that acts as a TSLA share news aggregator, etc, etc (see my earlier post on this subject).
Actually THIS post would belong in the generic thread, and not here.

How about you set up your own true short-term thread and volunteer to moderate it? Then you can move posts out of it as you see fit. I'm sure AudubonB would appreciate the help.

 

[DrJohnM]

I intentionally used a lower number for world's average compared to US average because gasoline in US is cheap compared to most other places in the world and US drivers like to drive more (a major factor resulting in the US being the country with one of the highest CO2 emission per capita in the world).

But to be honest, I'm a little dishearten by this result. 333m is about a quarter of the total cars now. And even if we assume they are replaced by EV powered by 0 emission electricity source, we are only reducing 3% of the total CO2 emission.

Apparently according to "The long tail pipe", it takes 6kwh to refine 1 US gal of petrol. That also ignores the energy to drill, ship, deliver and tanker ships are some of the worst polluters due to the fuel they burn.

All in now with a 222 limit. Hope to catch the morning dip.

 

[Lump]

How about you set up your own true short-term thread and volunteer to moderate it? Then you can move posts out of it as you see fit. I'm sure AudubonB would appreciate the help.

Weren't you a Mod for a short period & quit for personal reasons claiming lack of time or something? Appears you have found time to post in this thread topics you are passionate about but aren't related to trading.

 

[geneclean55]

Short squeeze time?