Interesting timing: Is the real Short Squeeze about to happen?
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Don’t be surprised if a huge number of Model 3 orders inspires investment banks to aggressively compete in offering attractive loans or subsequent offering deals to Tesla that would allow it to much more quickly ramp up development of the Gigafactory and production of the Model 3.
It is tempting to correlate price action with short action. But often times things don't work that way.
I'm looking at MarkIt data which I believe collects short information through partnerships with brokerages and it publishes out overnight for day before. As per them short-interest has been gradually going up through this price up-trend. Right now (reflecting yesterday) it stands at an all-time high - about 0.5mln more shares short than the latest exchange reported data.
A bit slower for me in the UK. Thought it was my ISP at first but other US pages open as quick as usual.
I would maintain with futurescope firmly attached to forehead that the OMG announcement in Q3 will be a financing round to at least double the 2020 target of 500,000 vehicle manufacturing capacity on account of registered demand. We could also see an attractive bid from China, India and possibly Europe, maybe even Japan to fund additional capacity outside the US also.
chickensevil
Active Member
Regarding a sell off, if you were momentum trading on an oversold stock, this is around the time to start slowly selling off stuff as we near 240. I too am starting to get back to my "core" shares having bought in on the way down because it messed up some "core" I had bought the last time we were in the low 200s. I always intended to sell off this stuff to get back some cash and wait to see what happens with this Model 3 event, the Q1 numbers and any other nice surprises.
I will happily buy back in on a momentum, speculation trade once we get through this major uncertainty event. Don't get me wrong, the Model 3 will be awesome, I am willing to put my 1k down sight unseen to get a good date, but how the market takes the event and how the market takes the Q4 numbers I am just not confident enough to actually stake trading capital on it and don't mind being a bit late to the train run up back above 260.
Been burned too many times trying to speculate directions on major events as I get too enthusiastic on my personal feelings about the company that I can't think cold and calculated about how Mr. Market will translate an event into a stock price and direction. If I can't take emotion out of something, then I need to just go to cash. It is the smart and safe play for me.
I will happily buy back in on a momentum, speculation trade once we get through this major uncertainty event. Don't get me wrong, the Model 3 will be awesome, I am willing to put my 1k down sight unseen to get a good date, but how the market takes the event and how the market takes the Q4 numbers I am just not confident enough to actually stake trading capital on it and don't mind being a bit late to the train run up back above 260.
Been burned too many times trying to speculate directions on major events as I get too enthusiastic on my personal feelings about the company that I can't think cold and calculated about how Mr. Market will translate an event into a stock price and direction. If I can't take emotion out of something, then I need to just go to cash. It is the smart and safe play for me.
hockeythug
Active Member
I suspect that is a large part of what motivated Elon to set up a situation in which hordes of buyers would likely be queued up at Tesla stores while garnering the attention of the media.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Quick trading question. I'm long TSLA. I want to sell at 233 or above.
I want to put a stop-limit order in at 233/233. If the price is below 233, will it still fire when it reaches 233, or only if it drops to 233? I suspect the former, so I don't want to put the order in just yet.
Basically, if it goes over 233, I want to hold. If it goes over 233 and then drops before I sell highr, I want to sell as it drops back to 233.
thanks.
I want to put a stop-limit order in at 233/233. If the price is below 233, will it still fire when it reaches 233, or only if it drops to 233? I suspect the former, so I don't want to put the order in just yet.
Basically, if it goes over 233, I want to hold. If it goes over 233 and then drops before I sell highr, I want to sell as it drops back to 233.
thanks.
In this thread How many people are taking delivery of their Model X in March? I see highest VIN likely to be delivered in March is 21XX. Consider we also have a total of maybe 1500 of founders and sig combined, and about 770 X delivered so far (Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard), my guess is they can probably push out another 2000+ X in March, making this quarter in the ball park of 3000.
I used to think it would be great if they can hype up the stock price with large 3 reservation numbers and do a secondary to accelerate GF and other capex items for 3 mass production. But in Feb they sort of promised they won't raise capital this year and be totally relying on their own operations so I'm not sure now.
Right there with you two. I am not selling out all the short term calls April 8th 215/220/230 and June 180s but enough to book a nice profit and will let the rest ride a bit. Not going to touch the J17/J18 Leaps at the moment.
This is a nice ride but I have been burnt before by being too greedy.
This is even though I do think we could have a nice run up thru the reveal and Q1 delivery numbers. I suspect we get a pull back (not large unless macro issues rise again) in mide April, then a frenzy around Q1 ER in late April/early May. I will not be shocked if Wheeler has been able to pull in the reigns enough to give FCF + (or whatever he wants to call it!).......
Exciting times.
As @sub said: 'No poetry'
mejojo
Active Member
Texas powers that be are not particularly Tesla-friendly. The basic petroleum culture may not be particularly friendly to Tesla.
You may notice that the whole southern route through Texas is devoid of superchargers. Somehow I don't think that's an accident.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
They've "promised" that before but it doesn't mean much. Before the first secondary they said basically one week before they had "no plans to do a capital raise".
Yup. It's easy to forget that many if not most investments in this world occur on the basis of building capacity ahead of demand. Some form of build it and they will come proposition - based on projections and a good VC pitch.
With Tesla there is and to date there always has been a line of customers ready and waiting for the investment in the capacity to fulfill customer demand - and even to pay up in full on delivery often before the bill of materials and labor falls due - with not a sign of that letting up for at least some years to come. Nobody else has this kind of security for expansion at anything like this scale in manufacturing.
With Model 3 I can see a situation in which Tesla can simply say to potential partners - here look we have half a million spare customers, anyone fancy building a factory to supply them if we show you how? Same goes for capital markets if Tesla wants to build more factories of its own - and if I'm right about this, Tesla's reservations may actually scupper demand for competing ICE products to the point of making more facilities like NUMMI up for grabs for pennies on the dollar.
Looking for parallels with genuine security of customers waiting on the end product would lead to things like Kickstarter campaigns, maybe commodity markets. Definitely not mass production cars.
dc_h
Active Member
If they deliver 3000X, 16,000 total is within reach. The Model S delivery tracker is showing a fairly tight sample from VIN 120,000 to VIN 133,000. The delivery push in Q4-2015 seems to have tightened up the bell curve. If they don't hit 3000X, it seems unlikely they will hit the 16,000 guidance. This is likely the hardest quarter to hit numbers, with X likely on track for 6000 to 8000 in Q2. Noteworthy in the Model S delivery tracking is the faster delivery times in the midwest and east. It seems they are doing more truck shipments, or rail to the midwest and moving to truck before getting stuck in the Chicago bottleneck for 3 weeks. I'm guessing they looked at the inventory data and assume it's better to take a hit on shipping costs rather than holding more inventory or missing delivery numbers.
Hitting 16,000 puts all the highlight on the Model 3 and Tesla Energy sales growth. If orders are high, it reduces risk of future earnings until at least 2018, which could have a significant impact on the stock price the first week of April.
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