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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
It was good for me (so far). A decent opportunity to roll Jun230's ($19.12) to mostly Sept240's ($22.03) and Sept230's ($26.20).
dc_h
Active Member
sub
Active Member
Sorry, should have included
I don't disagree with your predictions, I was taking a little jab at technical analysis.
I think it's just a healthy consolidation so far. Looking at the daily chart and hourly chart, both scream overbought to me. Give it a day or two at 225-230 level and we will be ready to welcome Model 3 event.
Not sure about timing Terrorist attacks but have tried to indicate a bear attack around about now.
I don't think this is a sell on the news event.
As for Cox research, I like Gandhi but I think I would rather quote Tolkein.
And far away, as Frodo put on the Ring and claimed it for his own, even in Sammath Naur the very heart of his realm, the Power in Barad-dur was shaken, and the Tower trembled from its foundations to its proud and bitter crown. The Dark Lord was suddenly aware of him, and his Eye piercing all shadows looked across the plain to the door that he had made; and the magnitude of his own folly was revealed to him in a blinding flash, and all the devices of his enemies were at last laid bare...For he knew his deadly peril and the thread upon which his doom know hung.
I think this neatly sums up the Model 3 unveiling for the Shorts.
on topic: reservations
Yes, I'm somewhere in the middle on guessing reservations.
To your point: I was thinking of reserving M3 myself Mar 31 online. I decided that I wouldn't, not because of worries over M3 itself, but because I would have to wait 4 years (in UK) to get it. That said, I'll probably have to wait 10 years to get it, if I don't reserve this year!
...unless of course Musk kicks Tesla up into third gear very soon (in my metaphor we're in first gear at the moment).
But will other potential M3 customers choose like me? I have no idea.
My only thoughts so far is that broadly speaking, people wear cars like they were clothes. On the whole, the subset of potential customers who wear nice clothes will reserve. Scruffy types like me won't.
What proportion wear nice clothes? Upwards of 50%, I'd say.
Yes, I'm somewhere in the middle on guessing reservations.
To your point: I was thinking of reserving M3 myself Mar 31 online. I decided that I wouldn't, not because of worries over M3 itself, but because I would have to wait 4 years (in UK) to get it. That said, I'll probably have to wait 10 years to get it, if I don't reserve this year!
...unless of course Musk kicks Tesla up into third gear very soon (in my metaphor we're in first gear at the moment).
But will other potential M3 customers choose like me? I have no idea.
My only thoughts so far is that broadly speaking, people wear cars like they were clothes. On the whole, the subset of potential customers who wear nice clothes will reserve. Scruffy types like me won't.
What proportion wear nice clothes? Upwards of 50%, I'd say.
As others have said, and echoed in this technical article, this looks more like a technical issue.
Tesla is overdue for a pullback
chickensevil
Active Member
Unlikely. Your momo traders will have made their money (and then some since the macro played into their hand) and they will have gotten out of their shorts. You won't see a huge decrease in short interest here though because most people are expecting and pushing for a 200 (on the nicer side) to 150 or lower short. Again on the nicer side of being short, I was seeing numbers throwing around the 207 range.
It depends on how emotional they are or just playing the charts and movements.
Us not clearing 240 and the well timed short "analysis" provided the weakness to drive the price down yesterday and that is that.
My personal prediction is that we will get a bounce in the low 220s, ride back up to just under 240 just before the 31st. Forming the most perfect cup and handle.
I was cautious toward the price hitting 240 faster than the event, the issue was that we had enough time between now and then for market manipulators to come in and do their thing. This was why I sold out most all of my options and went to cash (other than about 5-10%). This was also why I was cautioning people to consider taking some money off the table here to wait and see.
Obviously I didn't know it would drop, it is a probability game... And the probability of us dropping was too high for my liking which is why I dumped out.
The good news we get all this out of the way now in time for the event and it makes me more comfortable at the prospects of the event being taken positively. But note we have seen this happen before where there is a sell off right before the event (sell on the rumor of a sell on the news... Lol!) And then the event becomes a sell the news and amplifies it. (Both the D event and the Model X event played out exactly like this). I am hopeful that this time will be different... Because there is a lot more to be compelled about (large reservation numbers and Q1 numbers and X ramp) but again, there is very real risk that we sell the news...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
They purchased Chrysler's Lanthrop facility which ( I think) they are manufacturing motors and reduction gears.
And they recently signed a long term lease for Solyndra's former facility in Fremont which includes office and manufacturing space.
Tesla purchased the very large UAW Hall across the street from the Fremont Factory.
And I think most engineering is done at Palo Alto facility.
And Tesla Design is at Hawthorne CA next to SpaceX.
chickensevil
Active Member
In other news:
Tesla Motors Inc Model S Could Become More Expensive By Next Month
I have seen this floating around. The prospect of new features is interesting... But I would hope they hold out their 70k price for entry. I'm fine with them raising the top end, but starting at 70k really makes things look much better. Plus we have been at a 70k price since they dropped the 40kWh pack long ago (minus that small period where they didn't have a rear motor option on the low end and raised the price to 75k.)
In other, other news:
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Taps Google Glass For Upcoming Models: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE:FCAU) | Seneca Globe
Everyone kept saying Apple this and Apple that... It really didn't make sense for me. Elon has a personal relationship with the Google execs. And they have been stealing Apple guys since the very beginning... Everything from UI development, to their store layouts, to now alloys. Why would Apple ever willingly partner with the company who is stealing all your talent?
So, I present you with a Google partnership. It started with the hiring of the new CFO, and is continuing with this Google Glass development. This is an interesting idea and I would love to see more on the subject.
Tesla Motors Inc Model S Could Become More Expensive By Next Month
I have seen this floating around. The prospect of new features is interesting... But I would hope they hold out their 70k price for entry. I'm fine with them raising the top end, but starting at 70k really makes things look much better. Plus we have been at a 70k price since they dropped the 40kWh pack long ago (minus that small period where they didn't have a rear motor option on the low end and raised the price to 75k.)
In other, other news:
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Taps Google Glass For Upcoming Models: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (NYSE:FCAU) | Seneca Globe
Everyone kept saying Apple this and Apple that... It really didn't make sense for me. Elon has a personal relationship with the Google execs. And they have been stealing Apple guys since the very beginning... Everything from UI development, to their store layouts, to now alloys. Why would Apple ever willingly partner with the company who is stealing all your talent?
So, I present you with a Google partnership. It started with the hiring of the new CFO, and is continuing with this Google Glass development. This is an interesting idea and I would love to see more on the subject.
On reliability of $100k plus cars.
Mercedes Benz S Class has consistently been the global top seller in the $100k prices class for over a decade.
And for over a decade it regularly,but not always, is named Consumer Reports least reliable midsize or fullsize luxury car.
To add more information on this, I am a long time subscriber to Consumer Reports, an organization with a long history of having the most detailed reliability surveys for decades. Mercedes S Class was consistently rated "worse than average" or "much worse than average" for years. Below is the latest rating.
The point that is missing from the discussion about quality "expected" from a $100K car is the fact that car longevity and reliability are on one side of the engineering design compromise, while performance and innovative features are on another. That is the reason that Toyotas are well known for reliability, but can't hold a candle to BMW as far as performance is concerned. BMWs are known for performance, but do not come close to the reliability of Toyotas. This is just a fact of engineering design. I have posted on this several times - for those who rarely venture from the Investors part of the Forum, here is the post with more details on this.
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I bought some at 227.5. If it runs too high before end of 3/31 I'm going to sell these.God I hope so.
I sometimes wish more people would understand the following (and why undercutting the ICE industry really is a technology disruption - and the absolute power of what that actually means).
The ICE auto industry CAN NOT compete with Tesla. It would not matter if Musk himself became the CEO of Ford and arrived on the job team handed with Tesla engineers carrying detailed plans of everything Tesla knows. Even if that were to happen they still could not compete with Tesla. It is absolutely and completely impossible. Economics simply forbid it. Not without bankruptcy restructuring and bailout and worse still - all of the US ICE auto makers have been either bailed out or loaned up to the hilt by the government less than ten years ago, not exactly an encouraging prospect for more bailout money when the time comes. Nope, they will go bust and the new generation of EV makers will cherry pick whatever they want from the remains and dscard the rest - and it will go real fast. Toyota rabbiting on about their plans for 2050 is a complete joke. Never going to happen, customers won't wait that long and Toyota can not pivot from complete ICE dependency in time.
ICE auto makers are engine and transmission machine shops, steel casters, benders and welders. That is the core of the asset base and it is next to worthless in the presence of a compelling cost competitive EV. If you really really wanted to kill the Ford Motor Company, like really really fast, best way to do that? Take the Ford logo and put it on an EV that is obviously better and cheaper than any other vehicle with a Ford logo and put it in Ford's advertising saying so and put it in all the Ford dealerships next to the more expensive and less interesting Fords. That is what Ford would have to do to itself to compete with Tesla because price point by by price point, the Tesla is less expensive and more interesting than any Ford and if you can't beat that then you can't compete with Tesla. Like I said, it is absolutely impossible.
Note: The only thing that the ICE auto industry (and Oil / Kochs etc) can do about it is to seek to corrupt governments at the State and the National level or resort to direct criminality as they did with the far more vulnerable Tucker and DeLorean - neither of which controlled the US Government's primary means to sustain affordable military access to Space on US designed and built rockets. That's it. Forget about product competition until newcomers like Apple are ready to offer something - and note the fact that they are by definition way behind the curve while Tesla is effectively setting the new industry standards.
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