Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[aznt1217]

Downward movement was just accelerated with the S&P sentiment cut. To be honest, it's no new news. They are sighting execution risk for their argument that the stock has gotten ahead of itself with little to no material information update from the company.

In terms of the short term calendar we have the Model 3 reveal and then Tesla deliveries for Q1 a few days after.

It'll also be interesting in the next couple of days with NYIAS where Tesla "competitors" reveal their concept vehicles that will drive the vision. I'm seeing a lot of hybrids and Lincoln with its Navigator concept ripping off the X's Falcon Wing doors. I think EM will be disappointed to see a very small EV presence (as we all should be) and will start to turn up the heat even more because the industry is not going to a pure EV fast enough. Everything has been a slow gradual shift (such as the Prius Prime or the new Hyundai's).

 

[lango]

Electronic Standing In Line has no negative component. It takes none of your time. Your money is like being in a bank, probably making better interest, where you could sell your place in line for more than you paid. Even if you just decide to drop out and buy a Subaru, you haven't lost anything but the sweet experience of owning your own Tesla. You get your money back. But you don't get your Tesla.

And if you don't start standing in line now, you will wait a lot longer than 3 years -- or two, whichever comes first.

There is a cost, though - the feeling of being late to the party and there is also the $1000. If I go by myself I am probably going to stand in line to reserve one, but I am much less enthusiastic about it now than some weeks ago because I know it will take quite a long time before they reach Europe. So if reservations reaches several hundred thousands it means those with high queue numbers will have to wait 3+ years.

 

[Johan]

Followed through with exiting June16 calls yesterday. Dipped my toe back in now with some speculative Apr16 $235 calls with a smaller part of the gains from the last rally.

Feels like there's no valid reason for today's $11 drop other than FUD. And of course "macro". Schmakro I say.

 

[Causalien]

March 31st day is probably intentional. After the 1st quarter sales number, we get reservation number, feels like a 3rd news will come as the 1-2-3 punch. Delivered in Elon's manner. "Almost forgot:" Full plaid mode with P100Q

 

[austinEV]

March 31st day is probably intentional. After the 1st quarter sales number, we get reservation number, frels like a 3rd news will come as the 1-2-3 punch. Delivered in Elon's manner. "Almost forgot:" Full plaid mode with P100Q

ok, I will bite. Why Q for Plaid? Sliding one up from P?

 

[Causalien]

ok, I will bite. Why Q for Plaid? Sliding one up from P?

La belle Province

In seriousness, because P100D is already expected, was thinking of quad, even though it is proven to be completely useless. But it'll allow in place rotation without moving and strafing on the autobahn.

Gimmicks that the tradditional automakers are too lazy to explore.

 

[lango]

I sometimes wish more people would understand the following (and why undercutting the ICE industry really is a technology disruption - and the absolute power of what that actually means).

The ICE auto industry CAN NOT compete with Tesla. It would not matter if Musk himself became the CEO of Ford and arrived on the job team handed with Tesla engineers carrying detailed plans of everything Tesla knows. Even if that were to happen they still could not compete with Tesla. It is absolutely and completely impossible. Economics simply forbid it. Not without bankruptcy restructuring and bailout and worse still - all of the US ICE auto makers have been either bailed out or loaned up to the hilt by the government less than ten years ago, not exactly an encouraging prospect for more bailout money when the time comes. Nope, they will go bust and the new generation of EV makers will cherry pick whatever they want from the remains and dscard the rest - and it will go real fast. Toyota rabbiting on about their plans for 2050 is a complete joke. Never going to happen, customers won't wait that long and Toyota can not pivot from complete ICE dependency in time.

ICE auto makers are engine and transmission machine shops, steel casters, benders and welders. That is the core of the asset base and it is next to worthless in the presence of a compelling cost competitive EV. If you really really wanted to kill the Ford Motor Company, like really really fast, best way to do that? Take the Ford logo and put it on an EV that is obviously better and cheaper than any other vehicle with a Ford logo and put it in Ford's advertising saying so and put it in all the Ford dealerships next to the more expensive and less interesting Fords. That is what Ford would have to do to itself to compete with Tesla because price point by by price point, the Tesla is less expensive and more interesting than any Ford and if you can't beat that then you can't compete with Tesla. Like I said, it is absolutely impossible.

Note: The only thing that the ICE auto industry (and Oil / Kochs etc) can do about it is to seek to corrupt governments at the State and the National level or resort to direct criminality as they did with the far more vulnerable Tucker and DeLorean - neither of which controlled the US Government's primary means to sustain affordable military access to Space on US designed and built rockets. That's it. Forget about product competition until newcomers like Apple are ready to offer something - and note the fact that they are by definition way behind the curve while Tesla is effectively setting the new industry standards.

People don't necessarily buy the best car, there is a large degree of inertia both from brand loyalty and from loyalty to domestic manufacturers. Add to that the massive investment needed for Tesla to build out it's capacity which means that the ICE manufacturers do have some time on their hands for the transition. It will be a massive challenge for them obviously and I also think quite a few of them will fold, but I don't agree with you that they will be completely replaced by startups. I think at most one more startup after Tesla will succeed, but my guess is Tesla will be the only startup with really big volumes. A new startup has to compete with Tesla that have reached high volumes already, not easy! The ICE manufacturers also have some other assets that a startup has to acquire. Factories that are built and amortized, supplier partnerships for large volume orders and most importantly existing customer,

Also, countries like Germany and South Korea will bail out their companies if needed. I would guess Japan too but I don't know anything about their history with bailouts or general government support for struggling companies. A bailout will create a massive pressure on the management and work in some ways the same as bankruptcy when it comes to turning the stones and resetting the business.

The only way this can work out for ICE manufacturers I think is if they do a massive EV commitment for a large number of platforms. No slow ramp will work, it has to be a sudden commitment putting EV's as first class citizens over a few years. We know already that this won't happen before 2020. The question is if it will happen after and if they will do it aggressively enough? I think some might and some won't. Of the ones that do implement it aggressively there will be years of losses and falling share prices but I think they can come out on the other side. Those that are too careful will go bankrupt and maybe be saved by government or sold to another company. In either case there is no way to do this for them without lowering the profits or doing losses for years and do very big operational changes.

 

[Fallenone]

Fallen, I have a ton of leverage. I've lost 90% of my gains from this rally. What markers indicate the rally is broken in your estimation?

I am looking at the hourly chart and see trend line support and 50 MA on the hourly for short term. Both points to ~226. This has been working out pretty well for me since the rally from 150 level. The pull back to ~181 and ~200 were the two dips I bought for short term play (both sold early though). 200 MA on daily is about 228. Now we closed at 222 and I don't think it's a good sign for short term. If it keeps dropping tomorrow I'm going to cut loss the lot I bought today. Note this is a pure short term play, not going to sell my core.

 

[Fallenone]

March 31st day is probably intentional. After the 1st quarter sales number, we get reservation number, feels like a 3rd news will come as the 1-2-3 punch. Delivered in Elon's manner. "Almost forgot:" Full plaid mode with P100Q

I think they are having it in the night of 3/31 is also minimizing the impact of holding this event to production and delivery for Q1.

 

[Ulmo]

I flubbed. I have two unique pieces of knowledge, and I spent one:

1. Tesla Model X is doing OK. That got spent. $TSLA went up. So did I, and I was up $35K yesterday in the morning when I was looking at it thinking "I wonder where it will stop".

I put in an order to sell half of my position, and maybe keep going selling the rest of it, when it told me that would put my account in "Day Trading call, and cause a review of my account by the brokerage". It wasn't until today that I read that one DT call won't hurt my account. That was the LAMEST excuse I told myself for not selling when I was up $35K.

I checked out of my hotel at 12:15PM, and while driving to my next hotel, it started dropping.

I failed to realize that was the time to cash in on the price raise. I followed the drop ALL THE WAY down to where I had a total loss of 0 and a total gain of 0.

I'm clearly not cut out for this.

2. The Model 3 will do OK. This is more of a market play. I have absolutely no unique knowledge here.

So, I could have walked away this morning with at least $20K, or later in the afternoon today with $15K. Instead, I got $0K.

Sigh. I can be completely stupid.

Well, there's the $2,846 I got from piddling around in other stocks, most of which was a lucky grab of a small market wave for SCTY, which I had no unique knowledge about.

So, this would all be a wonderful learning experience for me if I had been able to use the above knowledge for "next time", but since I have no more unique knowledge (thousands of hours watching this forum and many decades in California with EV on the mind), what I learned I can't even begin to apply anywhere else. And the problem is that the money I came into earlier this year has a serious tax bill due if I don't get enough solar incentive on it, so I literally have to draw it all down by August, so there will be no more trading for me. I'll be buying land to put solar panels on, ordering and installing solar panels, and paying tax, and will be left with 0. That extra $15K-$35K could have come out really handy.

 

[Intl Professor]

I just called the Rocklin ca store (near Sacramento) to see what their response would be, this is where I'm planning to be on 3/31. Same answer as others have received from other stores, people will be camping out. I was nicely encouraged to reserve online if I don't want to wait in store. I'm going down as much for the experience as the reservation, I'm also hoping they might have a Model X there either on the sales floor or waiting for delivery. Maybe 300 per store is a little light on the estimation.

I was looking forward to meeting you and your daughter there, but I'm too old for such a line and at 9:00 a.m. at the earliest I'm not my best. But, we may drive by just to take pictures and lead a cheer!!

 

[DesertCO]

I am looking at the hourly chart and see trend line support and 50 MA on the hourly for short term. Both points to ~226. 200 MA on daily is about 228. Now we closed at 222 and I don't think it's a good sign for short term. If it keeps dropping tomorrow I'm going to cut loss the lot I bought today. Note this is a pure short term play, not going to sell my core.

New to this forum, but not Tesla. I am pouring over some charts, TA's and positions to get a barometer if we are headed north or south. I have held shares at $37, 145, 165 and 218. I typically buy dips, and this bear run will be no exception. However, for the short term let me sink my claws in to all the TA and I will post later.

 

[Julian Cox]

Disclaimer: I've lost 6 figures in the last couple days due to my own stupidity so I'm a bit upset.

I love the posts I read in this forum, they give me insights that I would have to work substantially harder for if it didnt exist. I very much appreciate everyone who posts, even if I do not always agree. However, this thread (for my liking) has gone too far astray from the short term price movement premise. Discussing EM's master plans, the outlook of the future car industry, etc has a place. It simply isnt in this thread.

Not good and sad to hear it.

FYI I called a bear attack drop on the stock on the 26th of this month three days short of a month ago - sorry I was 3 days out at that range, must try harder meanwhile @Causalien called a short term top perfectly on the day and gave some good reasons for it too.

I might be wrong but I think right now the short term direction has been called pretty well around here and the direction after the 31st is quite a lot about the implications for the master narrative just IMHO - whereby I'm leaning in the direction of explaining why traders concerns about sell on the news I strongly suspect will be overwhelmed by the OMFG of it all.

 

[DesertCO]

As far as TA goes, we are really [really] close to breaking down the 10DMA [226ish] at close tomorrow, if that happens, we are headed further down – from what I can tell 209 territory. We have broken critical support of 228ish, even below the 14-3 Day RS at 70%.. My inclination tells me we are headed lower – if that matters.


I could go in to charts, TA, bollingers, etc.. But here’s the thing, this is a typical fib retrace. It could go all the way back to fill gaps earlier in the year. On both the Model S and X, stocks retraced drastically PRIOR to the release date. I know that seems completely counter-intuitive, but let me explain:


I think there is a lot of interest, in many sectors that want to slow Tesla down. There are heavy hitters in fossil fuels, other automakers, other vested interests, etc that would prefer this to go away -- or at least look unappealing. It is no coincidence that the 8th grade thesis by Devonshire released yesterday happened when it did. Devonshire has zero credibility, and the domain was launched just a few days ago (I wont go in to that rant here). If you want to put on the foil hat and believe ‘coordinated attack’ so be it. Whatever the case, there are interests in keeping TSLA down prior to the release.


Now, long term – this will have zero impact. Bears will get caught in a trap soon enough. The momentum on the horizon will swing. Retracements will happen - sooner than you think. You can read all the news and analysts you want to, but in reality what they say one day will contradict what they say the next – for no apparent reason, or viable news. Bottom line, TSLA is going up.


With a company like this you cannot focus on daily price movements (unless of course you are day trading options, shorts, etc). Again, this is a volatile stock in a volatile environment, and expressly at a heated point in time.


If you are holding shares, keep holding. It takes conviction. Buy the dips. This is nothing more than sale.


As I said before I have owned since $37 and bought dips all along the way through $140-160 territory, hell I even bought at $230 a few days ago. I liquated other positions today, some at losses to free up capital – essentially I want to be ready to buy more shares as soon as I see indicators that we have consolidated. That will have much to do with the direction of the $SPY in the coming days.


My two cents, off my potato stand now.

 

[austinEV]

Not good and sad to hear it.

FYI I called a bear attack drop on the stock on the 26th of this month three days short of a month ago - sorry I was 3 days out at that range, must try harder meanwhile @Causalien called a short term top perfectly on the day and gave some good reasons for it too.

I might be wrong but I think right now the short term direction has been called pretty well around here and the direction after the 31st is quite a lot about the implications for the master narrative just IMHO - whereby I'm leaning in the direction of explaining why traders concerns about sell on the news I strongly suspect will be overwhelmed by the OMFG of it all.

Goodness people. I know this is the short term thread but this is about where we closed last Wed... Give it a few weeks. I too wish I could call every day. I even pretty much agreed with the top-calling from monday but it didn't occur me to sell. At best it is a super-local top. Fear-of-missing-out will rear its head shortly. We only have a week before the reveal.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Looking more and more like a perfect cup and handle. Perfect V + handle = prepare for liftoff.

 

[sub]

I was looking forward to meeting you and your daughter there, but I'm too old for such a line and at 9:00 a.m. at the earliest I'm not my best. But, we may drive by just to take pictures and lead a cheer!!

You mind dropping off lunch?

 

[joefee]

Breaking 226 stopped me out of my last 300 shares...I'll look to come back in at 202.

 

[Curt Renz]

My product specialist at the Tesla store in Highland Park, Illinois just now emailed me to inform me that their opening time on March 31st has reverted back to a normal 10 am CDT opening, and Model 3 reservations will be accepted at that time. He writes that all Tesla stores will open and accept reservations on the 31st at their normal opening times. I then phoned the Tesla store in Skokie, Illinois, and they confirmed that they had just been told the same thing by the company.

 

[sundaymorning]

Looking more and more like a perfect cup and handle. Perfect V + handle = prepare for liftoff.

Although I'm optimistic, yesterday's price drop combined with today suggests we're on the downtrend going into next week, perhaps there will be some buying the last couple days but this looks to be a repeat of the usual sell before the news. Whether we head up again will be contingent on delivery numbers for Q1. Those of us trading short term options may want to lock in profits. Tomorrow can get ugly as investors might sell before going into Good Frdiay, where the markets will be closed. This week will have one less trading day..combined with the coordinated short attack I'm not sure if we can gain some ground tomorrow. ATH trading is down :/