Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[tinm]

Very sweetest (well, ok, close to the very sweetest) words my wife has ever uttered to me she uttered to me today, after looking at what Lexus has done to her beloved Lexus cars (new models, they be ugly!):

"Order me a TESLA asap!"

Will do, honey. Will do. Couldn't order at a store today (because... New Mexico), but I'll be online pressing Reload Reload Reload trying to get the Tesla site to load starting at 7:30pm PT.

 

[MitchJi]

After the usual bull excrement on the Seeking Alpha site, I just posted:

It is a business contradiction for the major auto companies to sell electric vehicles. It is a survival contradiction for all of us to use fossil fuels.

Don't you mean bear excrement?

Estimate near 500 at dublin,ca store. This is incredible

Arrived at the Corte Madera CA store about 10 AM. I paced off the line, about 700 feet. Pretty dense line, people standing 2-4 abreast. I paced off about 10 feet and counted 10 people. Someone leaving a few minutes after 10 told me he arrived at 5:30 AM and was 23rd in line. Someone leaving a few minutes after 101 told me he arrived at 7:30 AM. When we finished about 12:45 the line behind us was still about 150-200 feet.

Asked someone with pro video equipment who he worked for, ABC News.

Stopped at the Apple to check iPad's (new forum sw is almost unusable for me with my iPhone) and the Apple store seemed deserted.

Yes, that is what I am planning to do in case I am late. I'll just do it on my phone. Hopefully Tesla prepared for this and the website doesn't bog down though.

Be sure to do it at 7:30 PM!
Tesla Model 3 unveiling event [Live Blog – Livestream 8:30pm PT – 3:30 UTC]

4:34pm ET – T-6h56: wow! Elon Musk just confirmed that online orders will now start one hour early for fear that it will overload Tesla’s server if combined with the livestream:

Online ordering at Tesla.com will now open at 7:30 pm Pacific to ensure no server overload. Presentation still at 8:30.

 

[jhm]

If it is prepaid I think it counts FCF, but these deposits are refundable and the customer can take it back any time in the next 18 months or so. Therefore I don't think they can be counted as FCF.

I think you may be confusing a liability with a capital expenditure. When a deposit is received it simultaneously increases cash and increases a liability (deposits). These two cancel each other out such that there is no impact to profit or loss, but it is in fact cash flow.

In general an increase in liabilities is positive cash flow. Likewise an increase in non cash assets is negative cash flow.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Will there be a recorded version of today's event?

 

[Julian Cox]

GM Battles Tesla in the Electric Car Market

Does this guy know that the model 3 is supposed to start at a lower price then a bolt?

Seems like a smart, reasonable, eloquent, rational guy - and yeah - he completely left the Model 3 unveil surprise on the table. Maybe he's shilling, maybe that is how smart, reasonable, eloquent rational people see the world.

Ready to be caught absolutely motherless and flippin' gobsmacked. Ideal outcome.

Edit: BTW - his blind spot if that is what it was was to be unable to disconnect the price of a vehicle from its value.

That's the big deal about tonight. A quantum shift from $35K gets you this to $35K gets you - OMG are you Sh*tting me!?

 

[JRP3]

Couldn't order at a store today (because... New Mexico), but I'll be online pressing Reload Reload Reload trying to get the Tesla site to load starting at 7:30pm PT.

 

[MitchJi]

Demand issues from the short side is for S/X, I personally haven't heard any bear stories about model 3 demand, competition stories, yes. The loudest voice from the bear's side for 3 is production time and cost. Both IMO are legit concerns for the bulls to think about, do some maths, then arrive with a conclusion before disregarding them.

Costs?! No flippin way!! That's one of their main advantages!

Production time (in the context of SP based on M3 production)? If you believe that TSLA, which has produced only two cars from the ground up (beginning of learning curve), has learned nothing from that experience that skepticism is justified. Sounds extremely foolish. Not quite as bad as costs.

 

[Fallenone]

Costs?! No flippin way!! That's one of their main advantages!

Production time (in the context of SP based on M3 production)? If you believe that TSLA, which has produced only two cars from the ground up (beginning of learning curve), has learned nothing from that experience that skepticism is justified. Sounds extremely foolish. Not quite as bad as costs.

I'm quoting the bear's story, not my opinion

 

[austinEV]

You messed me up... It's in an hour, right? Or have I lost my touch with time zones?

 

[Fallenone]

I think you may be confusing a liability with a capital expenditure. When a deposit is received it simultaneously increases cash and increases a liability (deposits). These two cancel each other out such that there is no impact to profit or loss, but it is in fact cash flow.

In general an increase in liabilities is positive cash flow. Likewise an increase in non cash assets is negative cash flow.

Thanks jhm!

 

[jhm]

Costs?! No flippin way!! That's one of their main advantages!

Production time (in the context of SP based on M3 production)? If you believe that TSLA, which has produced only two cars from the ground up (beginning of learning curve), has learned nothing from that experience that skepticism is justified. Sounds extremely foolish. Not quite as bad as costs.

Mitch, I think Fallenone was refering to the cost of production, not the price extended to customers. I think the concern is that gross margin may be too thin. Both production time and weak margins are valid concerns, but transitory.

As the Model 3 ramps up both will improve, just as they have for Model S. So it is a pretty weak bear thesis. Any experienced bull will expect difficulty in the ramp up. But Tesla will meet those challenges and arrive at offering a car that is both profitable and popular.

 

[jhm]

Thanks jhm!

I had to get my wife to explain it to me. It's one of the perks of living with an auditor.

 

[Papafox]

The TSLA gain in after hours trading is greater than the net gain during regular hours.

Indeed! Embrace the "sell on the news" strategy at your own peril.

 

[neroden]

You messed me up... It's in an hour, right? Or have I lost my touch with time zones?

Yes, reservations open an hour from when you posted. Half an hour now...

 

[JRP3]

You messed me up... It's in an hour, right?

Yeah, sorry, that was in reply to Tinm's post about reloading the page. 30 min from now.

 

[hershey101]

AHHH **** *** Elon! Make your presentations with east coast people in mind as well damn it! I'm clicking refresh for the next 90 min until the reveal is live.

 

[madodel]

When I reserved at Short Hills NJ today, I told them I already had an X. They told me that didn't matter for entering the information there. I should have asked if Tesla was going to assign owners to a different queue if we ordered in the store or are we supposed to order via MyTesla, but the whole process was rushed and I just thought of this now. Has anyone seen a reservation for a Model 3 appear in their MyTesla yet? Do I need to order online to get in the owners queue?

 

[hershey101]

And it begins www.model3.tesla.com is up... I love that the targeted ads on top of this page are showing me the BMW 5-series.

 

[madodel]

And it begins www.model3.tesla.com is up... I love that the targeted ads on top of this page are showing me the BMW 5-series.

I get "
This site can’t be reached
www.model3.tesla.com’s server DNS address could not be found."

 

[windgrins]

When I reserved at Short Hills NJ today, I told them I already had an X. They told me that didn't matter for entering the information there. I should have asked if Tesla was going to assign owners to a different queue if we ordered in the store or are we supposed to order via MyTesla, but the whole process was rushed and I just thought of this now. Has anyone seen a reservation for a Model 3 appear in their MyTesla yet? Do I need to order online to get in the owners queue?

Yes. Mine just appeared there:

Model 3 RNXXXXXXXXX
What's Next?
Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation.