Unlikely, as folks can just go online starting 4.5 hours from now. No incentive to go line up.
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Unlikely, as folks can just go online starting 4.5 hours from now. No incentive to go line up.
Runarbt
Active Member
The media coverage also give Elon a alot more attention for the reveal. Without this in advance, the reveal might have gone "under theradar" for a lot of ppl and media. Not now - everyone will be watching! :-D
I agree if in store reservation opens after event, we would see even longer lines provided the car is nice looking and maintains the 200 miles for 35k spec/price. But the news value won't be as powerful as today. IMO Tesla marketing department is aiming for this craziness purposefully. In addition, this requires online reservation pushed off for another 24 hours too. So basically, no reservations in Q1 (except employee reservations). Doing the reservation in Q1 would also give them cash in Q1 ER. I don't think this means a lot because its not free cash flow and they should be starting to accumulate cash in stead of burning it at Q2 anyway, but the more the merrier right?
Another thing may or may not happen is this gives something for EM to brag about tonight. I don't think it's likely to happen, but maybe.
Why not? You aren't planning to sell soon, are you? Better to help the shorts push the price down so you can buy *more* shares, that's what I figure, and have the shorts pay me while they're at it.
Unless you're using the shares to write covered calls or something, of course.
New Tweet from Musk: "Adding several more countries to Model 3 order page tonight. Check for details, but will include India, Brazil, SA, SK, NZ, Sing & Ireland."
Very good to see South Korea on the list in particular, as that is one of the biggest missing markets for premium cars.
Update: Musk followed up with another reply to someone, to say that X and S will also be available - maybe just in NZ, which was the question, but perhaps in all of these.
Very good to see South Korea on the list in particular, as that is one of the biggest missing markets for premium cars.
Update: Musk followed up with another reply to someone, to say that X and S will also be available - maybe just in NZ, which was the question, but perhaps in all of these.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Elon tweet:
"Adding several more countries to Model 3 order page tonight. Check for details, but will include India, Brazil, SA, SK, NZ, Sing & Ireland."
This has got to make an awful lot of people very happy. Tesla is truly becoming a global brand.
"Adding several more countries to Model 3 order page tonight. Check for details, but will include India, Brazil, SA, SK, NZ, Sing & Ireland."
This has got to make an awful lot of people very happy. Tesla is truly becoming a global brand.
I agree, but maybe he's hoping for a target a little higher than 100K. if they get to about 117K with that extra hour of online orders, Elon could say something like,
"we've been selling cars at Tesla since 2008 with the Roadster. I'm sure it's no surprise to anyone that we took more reservations today than any other day in our history. what we also did today that we did not even expect, was take more reservations for the Model 3 in one day than the total number of cars, Roadsters, Model S, Model X combined that we have sold in Tesla's entire existence."
I think we can conclude the demand of Model 3 exceeded even the most bullish estimate now? It appears it caught EM off guard too. So focus should be turned to meeting production requirements asap and minimize the possibility of delay. So, if a secondary is on the horizon, how would the stock price act? For TSLA, the higher the stock price, the cheaper they can raise capital. But for investment banks, if they are convinced of the future of TSLA, would benefit more if the stock price is lower. Therefore I think some big guys (GS, MS, etc.) may be bullish in mind, but help repressing the stock price for a while. OTOH, funds already invested a lot will try to push the stock price as high as possible. Would be interesting to see how the two forces balance out.
sundaymorning
Active Member
One thing that sets the m3 reveal apart from past tesla reveals of new products is that they are actually taking deposits, which immediately adds value to the company. Hopefully we see this reflected in the price tomorrow and a beat should take us to a new ATH
After 5 hours on the ordering line, we went to get a late lunch, and met a friend in the restaurant. She was there to pick up her new Model S, but they postponed the delivery!
Also @Zaxxon
For your consideration:
Some people really like malls and stores and to be among like minded people and to feel a sense of occasion and history in the making. Some people will not be super comfortable with the extreme culture shock of buying a car without even looking anyone in the eye and not everyone is a tech savvy early adopter - far from it. By definition the vast majority of people (the mainstream consumer) is not. In fact being the first in the line or anywhere near it isn't a positive for everyone. Most people I would suggest want the tried and tested product and are more than happy to let a 100,000 people go first to the point that being their purchasing criterion - and almost nobody as a percentage of all consumers typically buys a car sight unseen.
If 5~10% of the interest generated by the reveal are people that like malls and stores, buying a product they know they want instead of guessing and not overly motivated by being the first on the list to try a new $35K ~ $60K product then there will be lines - and if its more than 5~10% then the lines will be significant and Tesla will have crossed the chasm into the mainstream for real.
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I just had an interesting thought. Tesla has probably raised all of last years cash "burn" in one day on customer deposits (including reservations made tonight). Think about that for a minute... Plus they sold at least 3,000 X I would guess, plus at least 13,000 S. I think there is a chance they would be close to cash flow break even before these reservations...
I think the X deliveries will surprise. But who knows. Maybe all the longs are in, and all the shorts are in, and only a few people leaning one way or the other will be enough to break the tie.
Interesting to watch. Not feeling very optimistic at all about my lotto call options purchased yesterday and today, but that's why they are called lotto tickets...
I think the X deliveries will surprise. But who knows. Maybe all the longs are in, and all the shorts are in, and only a few people leaning one way or the other will be enough to break the tie.
Interesting to watch. Not feeling very optimistic at all about my lotto call options purchased yesterday and today, but that's why they are called lotto tickets...
The critical part here is the deposit they collect today is not free cash flow. And looking at the QC issues this quarter, GM on the X may not be very pleasing. Plus, many X delivered this quarter are signature series, you have to take 40k deposit off the revenue generated from those. If we assume 1300 sig, then that would mean 52m not making it into free cash flow. All in all, free cash flow positive this quarter is not likely IMO.
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