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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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As long as they grow 50% per year, there's no point thinking about 'the end'. Profit will only become meaningfull when their growth drops below 20% per year. That probably wont be in the coming 10 years.

Your statement is not correct and I know why. You have confused profits with cash flows and for the cash flows you are assuming Tesla has a need for escalating finished goods inventories to keep pace with escalating sales. None of that is true. You are mentally modelling the traditional auto industry or an ordinary manufacturing business supplying products to customers on credit and waiting to be paid. Tesla does not work that way. Every sale currently delivered from factory to customer within the USA is cash flow positive (cash outlay for bill of materials and is settled after customer funds are received) and every sale with a longer transit time is and always can be financed in transit at minimal interest rates secured on the inventory in transit so that it is cash flow positive too and the interest can be passed on to the remote customer to maintain a flat gross margin on sales.

You are also failing to consider the implications of Autonomous Fleet that has not even a passing resemblance to an ordinary manufacturing and distribution business model. That will be online within probably 5 years and if they price-match Uber they will be enjoying profits well in excess of 100% and they may as well enjoy at least 75% of that pending market saturation.
 
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Your statement is not correct and I know why. You have confused profits with cash flows and for the cash flows you are assuming Tesla has a need for escalating finished goods inventories to keep pace with escalating sales. None of that is true. You are mentally modelling the traditional auto industry or an ordinary manufacturing business supplying products to customers on credit and waiting to be paid. Tesla does not work that way. Every sale currently delivered from factory to customer within the USA is cash flow positive (cash outlay for bill of materials and is settled after customer funds are received) and every sale with a longer transit time is and always can be financed in transit at minimal interest rates secured on the inventory in transit so that it is cash flow positive too and the interest can be passed on to the remote customer to maintain a flat gross margin on sales.

You are also failing to consider the implications of Autonomous Fleet that has not even a passing resemblance to an ordinary manufacturing and distribution business model. That will be online within probably 5 years and if they price-match Uber they will be enjoying profits well in excess of 100% and they may as well enjoy at least 75% of that pending market saturation.

Julian, all I wanted to say was that there's no point in using metrics for an established company to valuate Tesla. Your reply makes that more clear than mine.
 
Monday will be a really interesting day. Nasdaq shows TSLA at 245 USD premarket. I expect high volatility. Normally i would expect shorts to cover given the recent announcements and reservations going through the roof. But i imagine shorts piling in as a higher price seems more rewarding as an entry level. We will also see myriads of FUD articles all over the place which will be painful to read. Once we see a 10%+ upswing on high volume i expect accelerated covering and eventually a nice squeeze to a new ATH. I will position my short term plays accordingly. Happy investing to all the longs.
 
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Monday will be a really interesting day. Nasdaq shows TSLA at 245 USD premarket. I expect high volatility. Normally i would expect shorts to cover given the recent announcements and reservations going through the roof. But i imagine shorts piling in as a higher price seems more rewarding as an entry level. We will also see myriads of FUD articles all over the place which will be painful to read. Once we see a 10%+ upswing on high volume i expect accelerated covering and eventually a nice squeeze to a new ATH. I will position my short term plays accordingly. Happy investing to all the longs.

I agree next week will be a tug-o-war between longs and shorts, and I believe TSLA will go higher throughout the week. Especially if there are announcements of direct proof of Tesla accelerating their M3 timeline (capital raise, new factory etc).

However, there are no pre market trades being made today (Sunday) so your info on that is incorrect.
 
However, there are no pre market trades being made today (Sunday) so your info on that is incorrect.[/QUOTE]

You are certainly correct in regards of Sunday, nevertheless, i wanted to point out, that aftermarket / premarket volume is high and the SP is rising. > see nasdaq..
 
However, there are no pre market trades being made today (Sunday) so your info on that is incorrect.

You are certainly correct in regards of Sunday, nevertheless, i wanted to point out, that aftermarket / premarket volume is high and the SP is rising. > see nasdaq..[/QUOTE]

The are no aftermarket trades on Friday and no premarket trades yet so I don't understand what you are referring to.
 
You are certainly correct in regards of Sunday, nevertheless, i wanted to point out, that aftermarket / premarket volume is high and the SP is rising. > see nasdaq..

The are no aftermarket trades on Friday and no premarket trades yet so I don't understand what you are referring to.[/QUOTE]
I am referring to what can be seen on nasdaq tsla premarket ( i whish i could post a screenshot, but the upload failed 3 times so i let it be). Please enlighten me what the 245 is meant to be.
 
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I also think that they are a bit overwhelmed by the response that was genuinely not expected. Take for example the following exchange on the Twitter which indicate that as of Saturday confirmation e-mails are not being sent on time. Contrast this with a member of my extended family receiving e-mail just minutes after placing reservation in the store, all within one hour after it opened (yes, he was early in the line, around first 50 or so).

I suspect that reservations went viral and they have difficulties coping with volume. For example, member of my extended family mentioned above, after placing reservation in store, convinced several of his coworkers to place reservation on-line...

Under the circumstances, I think they deserve some slack

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