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I really really seriously want Musk / Tesla to stop posting M3 reservation numbers. I hope they have stopped on the basis of any excuse whatsoever and resume the standard operating procedure of confidentiality established for Model S and Model X reservations asap.
I get it that it would be weird not to say something when there are lines around the block but this is a proprietary information asset and I want to know that its value to Tesla is accumulating in the Tesla business and not given away any more. The auto and oil industry will not respond to this in the timescales that matter (i.e. the immediate prior to Model 3 full ramp) by trying harder to make compelling EVs instead of trying to protect ICE sales and trying harder to diversify into Solar rather than defending gasoline sales.
Musk is entirely free to give away access to patent information because that is a poisoned chalice to the ICE auto industry - one good sip from that cup with intent to strike down Tesla and that's one less ICE automaker in the world - fully attributable to a management blunder on behalf of the ICE automaker that Tesla cannot be blamed for.
In my sincere opinion the ONLY business risk of any significance Tesla now faces is abuse of this reservation information. 250,000 units is OK - much closer to a million in the US will reverse 2015 gains in the US auto sector new vehicle demand essentially creating another US auto industry recession compounded by the fact that that industry is planning for a better year in 2016 than last year, resulting in chaos - and for example defeating the entire premise of recent multi $billion long term investments made by Ford.
Without the risk of abuse of what could and should in my view be Tesla's proprietary secret data, if the truth be told Tesla effectively holds an execution guarantee on a trajectory that Rockefeller would be have been envious of. Anyone that says otherwise is confused for whatever reason best suits them.
There is Zero legitimate competitive threat and Zero problem raising whatever cash is required for execution on whatever terms Musk wishes, up to an including accepting a philanthropic gift from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation or similar which is not something that has a 0% probability of occurring and might not be that far off the mark. Actually I think if Musk created a Tesla CapEx Charitable Trust Fund For the Future of Humanity against Global Warming to accelerate and hold the purchase of vehicle and battery production assets that could never fall directly into the hands of lenders and shareholders a lot of $billionaires and many more besides would die to to put proper philanthropic money into that both literally and figuratively even if there was a very substantial indirect benefit felt by shareholders and lenders - which of course would be predictable and available for any such donor to participate in. For example half a $billion split evenly between the Trust fund and the publicly traded stock would probably come close to break even on gains in the stock portion.
Unless Musk has an immediate Model 3 production ramp up his sleeve (seems unlikely but not entirely impossible considering Fremont is apparently full of production equipment that cannot be explained away for Model X and Model S alone) the only thing Tesla cannot defend itself from is getting hauled before Congress for collapsing the US auto industry with a reservation program and no compensating industrial boom to show for it for a minimum of 18 months and the only way Tesla can be blamed for it is by declaring to the world the numbers that demonstrate that its reservation program is at the root cause and the missing customers are sitting in a Tesla server rack un-served by anyone until further notice of achieving the hitherto impossible.
Musk is a lot smarter than me and he has full access to insider information of which I have none, yet if someone has Musk's ear please will you forward this message to him regardless, just in case this point has succumbed to hubris during what should rightfully in any sane world be an unabashed celebration.
In the past year X was delayed with no end in sight, this time we know exactly where X is on the map. I've seen 3 X this weekend for 2 consecutive days, including this morning on the way to work.You think just being inline with guidance (+/- 300 cars for the 16000 mark) will be enough to propel the stock up? We haven't seen a positive return on just their delivery numbers in the past year since they started doing this, what makes you think it will happen now? The only positive to this is the Model X number showing substantial ramp finally happening. Outside of this, the argument is going to be: "Yeah, they got their numbers this time, but now that the Model 3 is showing, noone is going to buy the S/X because they can just wait and get a cheaper car in 3 years." You follow Mark/Logical Thought on Twitter (I saw you reply to one of his silly comments) he is already saying this silliness even absent their delivery numbers. And he is the definition of an irrational short. This 30+M shares didn't just get there over night. These shorts have been playing this game for a very long time...
I am not saying we can't hit 270 by the end of the week, I am just not going to be surprised when it doesn't happen. I will be happy just sticking above 240 today, and closing out the week above 250.
Random theory about delivery numbers.
Tesla knows their delivery numbers for Q1. Why haven't they released them? I don't buy the excuse that they wanted to have M3 delivery numbers have their day or they were too busy counting reservations to count deliveries - like someone's demented Cousin Lenny is in the back room counting and we can't bother him with delivery counting until all these dumb reservations stop coming in.
I think they may be on the cusp of being non-GAAP profitable for Q1 and are furiously crunching financial numbers to see if they can do a double announcement deliveries and dollars. In addition to high ASP Model X, most of the Model X were delivered in California to beat the tax hike on April 1st for affluent Californians. This puts bonus ZEVcredits in play at a time when Volkswagon may need significant credits to offset their Diesel-doppelgänger. With lowered expenditures, good deliveries, higher ASP and ZEV - might have a recipe for some short gumbo.
Not verifiable, just speculating.
This is a golden opportunity for Tesla to deliver a beat...c'mon TSLA
Random theory about delivery numbers.
Tesla knows their delivery numbers for Q1. Why haven't they released them? I don't buy the excuse that they wanted to have M3 delivery numbers have their day or they were too busy counting reservations to count deliveries - like someone's demented Cousin Lenny is in the back room counting and we can't bother him with delivery counting until all these dumb reservations stop coming in.
I think they may be on the cusp of being non-GAAP profitable for Q1 and are furiously crunching financial numbers to see if they can do a double announcement deliveries and dollars. In addition to high ASP Model X, most of the Model X were delivered in California to beat the tax hike on April 1st for affluent Californians. This puts bonus ZEVcredits in play at a time when Volkswagon may need significant credits to offset their Diesel-doppelgänger. With lowered expenditures, good deliveries, higher ASP and ZEV - might have a recipe for some short gumbo.
Not verifiable, just speculating.
This is a golden opportunity for Tesla to deliver a beat...c'mon TSLA
What brokerage lets you do that?Nice good time to get out! I had a GTC+ for $246.50 and it filled for $247.15 in pre-market. Love when that happens!
Well fill depends on a number of different factors in pre/post market trading. Just because you place an order for one thing doesn't mean it will fill for it if the bid is higher and it wasn't filled previously due to differences in available/requested volume - if that makes sense.What brokerage lets you do that?
I agree. Also, they will never announce before market open - so either close today or Tuesday (if they stay within their previous 3 day guidance for quarterly deliveries).It probably will this afternoon. I suspect at the very least they are tipping off analysts of inbound good news - hence waiting for Monday rather than the weekend. If they want more than just good coverage from Wall Street it could take until tomorrow or Weds for disclosure.
Steve, Rockefeller behind paywall. Can you quote some points of article?
Tesla has set a formidable world record of any Consumer Technology company, of booking orders of more than $11.6 Billion within the first 72 hours
Steve, Rockefeller behind paywall. Can you quote some points of article?
That's one possibility... Unless they didn't want it to be overshadowed by the M3 news and wanted to stretch the good news cycle out.If the Q1 deliveries beat guidance there would have been an announcement by now. I don't think they did beat, with the slight delay in the X ramp. It doesn't matter though, they have shifted to focus to M3 to divert attention from the non-beat or even slight miss - just look at Elon tweeting cumulative reservations like he was updating his Facebook status on spring break and divulging one tidbit after another to random Twitter users. Nothing wrong with that, the 3 is what's important now. I'm just saying if you look where they don't want you to focus right now it's pretty obvious that Q1 deliveries weren't all that great.