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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I really really seriously want Musk / Tesla to stop posting M3 reservation numbers. I hope they have stopped on the basis of any excuse whatsoever and resume the standard operating procedure of confidentiality established for Model S and Model X reservations asap.

I get it that it would be weird not to say something when there are lines around the block but this is a proprietary information asset and I want to know that its value to Tesla is accumulating in the Tesla business and not given away any more. The auto and oil industry will not respond to this in the timescales that matter (i.e. the immediate prior to Model 3 full ramp) by trying harder to make compelling EVs instead of trying to protect ICE sales and trying harder to diversify into Solar rather than defending gasoline sales.

Musk is entirely free to give away access to patent information because that is a poisoned chalice to the ICE auto industry - one good sip from that cup with intent to strike down Tesla and that's one less ICE automaker in the world - fully attributable to a management blunder on behalf of the ICE automaker that Tesla cannot be blamed for.

In my sincere opinion the ONLY business risk of any significance Tesla now faces is abuse of this reservation information. 250,000 units is OK - much closer to a million in the US will reverse 2015 gains in the US auto sector new vehicle demand essentially creating another US auto industry recession compounded by the fact that that industry is planning for a better year in 2016 than last year, resulting in chaos - and for example defeating the entire premise of recent multi $billion long term investments made by Ford.

Without the risk of abuse of what could and should in my view be Tesla's proprietary secret data, if the truth be told Tesla effectively holds an execution guarantee on a trajectory that Rockefeller would be have been envious of. Anyone that says otherwise is confused for whatever reason best suits them.

There is Zero legitimate competitive threat and Zero problem raising whatever cash is required for execution on whatever terms Musk wishes, up to an including accepting a philanthropic gift from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation or similar which is not something that has a 0% probability of occurring and might not be that far off the mark. Actually I think if Musk created a Tesla CapEx Charitable Trust Fund For the Future of Humanity against Global Warming to accelerate and hold the purchase of vehicle and battery production assets that could never fall directly into the hands of lenders and shareholders a lot of $billionaires and many more besides would die to to put proper philanthropic money into that both literally and figuratively even if there was a very substantial indirect benefit felt by shareholders and lenders - which of course would be predictable and available for any such donor to participate in. For example half a $billion split evenly between the Trust fund and the publicly traded stock would probably come close to break even on gains in the stock portion.

Unless Musk has an immediate Model 3 production ramp up his sleeve (seems unlikely but not entirely impossible considering Fremont is apparently full of production equipment that cannot be explained away for Model X and Model S alone) the only thing Tesla cannot defend itself from is getting hauled before Congress for collapsing the US auto industry with a reservation program and no compensating industrial boom to show for it for a minimum of 18 months and the only way Tesla can be blamed for it is by declaring to the world the numbers that demonstrate that its reservation program is at the root cause and the missing customers are sitting in a Tesla server rack un-served by anyone until further notice of achieving the hitherto impossible.

Musk is a lot smarter than me and he has full access to insider information of which I have none, yet if someone has Musk's ear please will you forward this message to him regardless, just in case this point has succumbed to hubris during what should rightfully in any sane world be an unabashed celebration.

Hi Julian,

I expect one more tweet from Elon on Wednesday because that is what he said he would do on an earlier tweet. So this will account for the first week's reservations (almost). After that, I believe you are going to get your wish with future press comments being "We received over 300,000 Model 3 reservations within the 1st week after the reveal. We're keeping the total number of reservations going forward as internal information. The level of support shown is enough to accelerate our plans past the point that we can reasonably execute."
 
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Tesla Motors: Model 3 Built for the iPhone Generation?

Over the weekend, we learned that Tesla Motors (TSLA) had taken order for 276,000 Model 3sin just 72 hours…and the car won’t even be delivered until sometime in 2017. Global Equities Research’s Trip Chowdhry contends that the Model 3 has been “designed for the iPhone generation” and that alternatives from General Motors’ (GM) , Toyota Motor (TM), and other competitors are “Dead-on-Departure.” He explains:

BN-NJ243_teslaf_D_20160401170542.jpg

Reuters
• Tesla has set a formidable world record of any Consumer Technology company, of booking orders of more than $11.6 Billion within the first 72 hours

General Motors Bolt is DoD (Dead-on-Departure), and General Motors should just cancel this project; completely misses the mark with the iPhone generation consumer “It’s An Ugly Tiffin Box

• Digitally centered consumer is sick and tired of General Motors, BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Toyota etc. and almost every existing Auto manufacture who have shown zero innovation and have been producing “Ugly Tiffin Boxes” for decades

• Tesla Model 3 has been designed for the iPhone generation consumer, whose lives are digitally super-centered … and competition is completely clueless .. somehow it seems that existing auto manufacturers believe that iPhones can be powered by Gasoline and not Batteries
 
You think just being inline with guidance (+/- 300 cars for the 16000 mark) will be enough to propel the stock up? We haven't seen a positive return on just their delivery numbers in the past year since they started doing this, what makes you think it will happen now? The only positive to this is the Model X number showing substantial ramp finally happening. Outside of this, the argument is going to be: "Yeah, they got their numbers this time, but now that the Model 3 is showing, noone is going to buy the S/X because they can just wait and get a cheaper car in 3 years." You follow Mark/Logical Thought on Twitter (I saw you reply to one of his silly comments) he is already saying this silliness even absent their delivery numbers. And he is the definition of an irrational short. This 30+M shares didn't just get there over night. These shorts have been playing this game for a very long time...

I am not saying we can't hit 270 by the end of the week, I am just not going to be surprised when it doesn't happen. I will be happy just sticking above 240 today, and closing out the week above 250.
In the past year X was delayed with no end in sight, this time we know exactly where X is on the map. I've seen 3 X this weekend for 2 consecutive days, including this morning on the way to work.
 
Random theory about delivery numbers.

Tesla knows their delivery numbers for Q1. Why haven't they released them? I don't buy the excuse that they wanted to have M3 delivery numbers have their day or they were too busy counting reservations to count deliveries - like someone's demented Cousin Lenny is in the back room counting and we can't bother him with delivery counting until all these dumb reservations stop coming in.

I think they may be on the cusp of being non-GAAP profitable for Q1 and are furiously crunching financial numbers to see if they can do a double announcement deliveries and dollars. In addition to high ASP Model X, most of the Model X were delivered in California to beat the tax hike on April 1st for affluent Californians. This puts bonus ZEVcredits in play at a time when Volkswagon may need significant credits to offset their Diesel-doppelgänger. With lowered expenditures, good deliveries, higher ASP and ZEV - might have a recipe for some short gumbo.

Not verifiable, just speculating.

That would be really "over the top" good. I'm not expecting this in Q1. Nor FCF
 
Random theory about delivery numbers.

Tesla knows their delivery numbers for Q1. Why haven't they released them? I don't buy the excuse that they wanted to have M3 delivery numbers have their day or they were too busy counting reservations to count deliveries - like someone's demented Cousin Lenny is in the back room counting and we can't bother him with delivery counting until all these dumb reservations stop coming in.

I think they may be on the cusp of being non-GAAP profitable for Q1 and are furiously crunching financial numbers to see if they can do a double announcement deliveries and dollars. In addition to high ASP Model X, most of the Model X were delivered in California to beat the tax hike on April 1st for affluent Californians. This puts bonus ZEVcredits in play at a time when Volkswagon may need significant credits to offset their Diesel-doppelgänger. With lowered expenditures, good deliveries, higher ASP and ZEV - might have a recipe for some short gumbo.

Not verifiable, just speculating.

Interesting. It is also potentially tactical to wait for the haters to speculate on a Q1 miss in the media and then slam them with a beat in that order. It is also potentially possible that they are stealth book running a capital raise with delivery beat information as security that filling the book will be immediately profitable for any institution that subscribes.

Just additional speculation. It is highly improbable that they have mismanaged Q1 and have to water down the M3 unveil narrative with a miss and the highest probability rests with how they can best play a delivery beat Ace.
 
Or it can be simpler. Their phones are ringing off the hook about deals. Elon probably put the accounting department on the phone.

It's not the numbers. It was the physical lineup that proves the numbers are true. The power wall had a big nimber, but it was easy to brush away because "it's not real customers."
 
It probably will this afternoon. I suspect at the very least they are tipping off analysts of inbound good news - hence waiting for Monday rather than the weekend. If they want more than just good coverage from Wall Street it could take until tomorrow or Weds for disclosure.
I agree. Also, they will never announce before market open - so either close today or Tuesday (if they stay within their previous 3 day guidance for quarterly deliveries).
 
If the Q1 deliveries beat guidance there would have been an announcement by now. I don't think they did beat, with the slight delay in the X ramp. It doesn't matter though, they have shifted to focus to M3 to divert attention from the non-beat or even slight miss - just look at Elon tweeting cumulative reservations like he was updating his Facebook status on spring break and divulging one tidbit after another to random Twitter users. Nothing wrong with that, the 3 is what's important now. I'm just saying if you look where they don't want you to focus right now it's pretty obvious that Q1 deliveries weren't all that great.
 
Tesla has set a formidable world record of any Consumer Technology company, of booking orders of more than $11.6 Billion within the first 72 hours

Chowdhry really needs to quit smoking whatever it is he's smoking. Tesla has booked $0 in Model 3 orders. Even if reservations were orders, the $42k/vehicle ASP is just a WAG. He does Tesla fans a disservice by consistently spouting pie-in-the-sky nonsense. What Tesla achieved last week is impressive enough without distorting it into something it is not.
 
If the Q1 deliveries beat guidance there would have been an announcement by now. I don't think they did beat, with the slight delay in the X ramp. It doesn't matter though, they have shifted to focus to M3 to divert attention from the non-beat or even slight miss - just look at Elon tweeting cumulative reservations like he was updating his Facebook status on spring break and divulging one tidbit after another to random Twitter users. Nothing wrong with that, the 3 is what's important now. I'm just saying if you look where they don't want you to focus right now it's pretty obvious that Q1 deliveries weren't all that great.
That's one possibility... Unless they didn't want it to be overshadowed by the M3 news and wanted to stretch the good news cycle out.
 
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