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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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We will get hint with increased spending on set up in a qtr report

No, I think they will stick to their plan to polish the financials for the next few quarters. They need 1-2 quarters with blowout cash/profit/whatever to prove once and for all that the vehicle sales is wildly profitable. I think that was the internal plan to get the stock up to do a capital raise. The last thing they would want to do, in the Q1 ER at least, is to talk about big cap spend on the M3. They can just talk about design and testing and push spend talk to future quarters.

Remember the Bear argument is that TM is dependent on cash infusions and cannot stand on their own. The suspicion this might be true increases the cost of capital. To reduce the cost of capital they need to work hard to prove they don't need money... so they can get money.
 
If Tesla fails to provide a delivery miss (and why should they do that for them?) then $270 should appear within hours.

You think just being inline with guidance (+/- 300 cars for the 16000 mark) will be enough to propel the stock up? We haven't seen a positive return on just their delivery numbers in the past year since they started doing this, what makes you think it will happen now? The only positive to this is the Model X number showing substantial ramp finally happening. Outside of this, the argument is going to be: "Yeah, they got their numbers this time, but now that the Model 3 is showing, noone is going to buy the S/X because they can just wait and get a cheaper car in 3 years." You follow Mark/Logical Thought on Twitter (I saw you reply to one of his silly comments) he is already saying this silliness even absent their delivery numbers. And he is the definition of an irrational short. This 30+M shares didn't just get there over night. These shorts have been playing this game for a very long time...

I am not saying we can't hit 270 by the end of the week, I am just not going to be surprised when it doesn't happen. I will be happy just sticking above 240 today, and closing out the week above 250.
 
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To be in the money at a strike of $280 this week, probably needs 16,300 or better deliveries reported for Q1 today.

I am convinced it may be primarily shorts hedging that are buying these way out of the money calls. I don't expect the stock to be 280 by Friday, but I do hope it will spike up early and I can sell on the hope (fear) that it will be.

I have half set to sell at open today at different price levels, and then I will sell the rest after Q1 deliveries if they are worth anything at that point. Hope they will be.
 
I fully expect Adam Jonas to come out with an upgrade (probably after ER). Basically, tesla looks to be on track for their "bull case" so new PT should reflect that. Also, his Uber-killer autonomous driving capability is clearly coming so he should be all over that too.

Other analysts should turn more bullish too

Thanks Andrea James for already weighing in with new PT
 
Being that I have some short term gambles on options right now I am hoping the delivery numbers are a beat and the only reason they are delayed is so that today can ride up on reservation numbers and tomorrow can ride up on delivery numbers. Then Wednesday we get more reservation numbers again. If these are all positive it should be a great week. I'm already playing with house money at this point though so I won't regret my gamble either way.
 
If pre-production orders are an indicator of demands, tesla will sell 2 million model 3s annually because m3 orders will definitely be >1million when the production begins. This is derived from MS and MX, each of which has 20~30k pre-prod orders while the annual production number is about 50k.

1 mm model 3 will mean 42bil of revenue, plus another 10bil from S and X, the total will be 52bil. Assuming 2x p/s ratio, TESLA will be worth 100 billion or $735 per share.
 
Lessons during amateur hour

On Friday, in a panic of what appears to be climbing TSLA price, I sold my Apr 15 puts at market price, thinking my high limit sell on call options will offset my Put loss. Well, of course only the Put was executed.

This morning, I never thought this cycle will repeat but happy to say amateur hour came thru for me and executed my Calls at open!

Crazy stupid macro. Major indices down. Was this a reaction to the Panama Papers expose?
 
I am convinced it may be primarily shorts hedging that are buying these way out of the money calls. I don't expect the stock to be 280 by Friday, but I do hope it will spike up early and I can sell on the hope (fear) that it will be.

I have half set to sell at open today at different price levels, and then I will sell the rest after Q1 deliveries if they are worth anything at that point. Hope they will be.

Worrying the price will go throught the roof and excitement that it might are not very different when it comes to demand for call options. All just adds up to demand on the bull side of the trade - and the main point of a call to hedge a short is to help pay for the losses in covering the short which is basically just a case of competing with the longs to buy a rising stock.

It is generally a better idea to take long term short bets on companies with evidence of customer abandonment. On that basis alone TSLA has been the most idiotic short trade ever since its IPO considering customers have been lining up for everything it has produced since 2006 for the roadster, big times since 2009 for the S, even bigger in 2015 for the X and in 2016 the lines are not just virtual lines in a reservations database but they actually spilled out onto the streets all over the world while BMW and Mercedes dealers gawped from the windows of their empty showrooms. There is no excuse for the inherent stupidity of betting against industry disruptions.

What makes this even more inexcusable in the information era is that I think it is true to say that almost without exception every extremely large and enduring company certainly in the Western Hemisphere was itself a product of seizing upon the early outbreak of an industry disruption in its own day too and that is definitely true of the entire energy and personal transportation sector.
 
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I fully expect Adam Jonas to come out with an upgrade (probably after ER). Basically, tesla looks to be on track for their "bull case" so new PT should reflect that. Also, his Uber-killer autonomous driving capability is clearly coming so he should be all over that too.

Other analysts should turn more bullish too

Thanks Andrea James for already weighing in with new PT
Andrea James's analysis is very intelligent.
I imagine Jonas will say "the model 3 is great, reservation number is very bullish, however, Tesla is too late to act on the car sharing......" He will be proven wrong on the last part.
Trip Chowpdhry will say "Tesla has killed the entire car industry with model S, X, and especially with model 3. " Raise price target.
 
Random theory about delivery numbers.

Tesla knows their delivery numbers for Q1. Why haven't they released them? I don't buy the excuse that they wanted to have M3 delivery numbers have their day or they were too busy counting reservations to count deliveries - like someone's demented Cousin Lenny is in the back room counting and we can't bother him with delivery counting until all these dumb reservations stop coming in.

I think they may be on the cusp of being non-GAAP profitable for Q1 and are furiously crunching financial numbers to see if they can do a double announcement deliveries and dollars. In addition to high ASP Model X, most of the Model X were delivered in California to beat the tax hike on April 1st for affluent Californians. This puts bonus ZEVcredits in play at a time when Volkswagon may need significant credits to offset their Diesel-doppelgänger. With lowered expenditures, good deliveries, higher ASP and ZEV - might have a recipe for some short gumbo.

Not verifiable, just speculating.
 
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