Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ludicrousspeed]

i would add phase 2 of the model 3 reveal (although it could be 2H 2017), which per my post here in the "cards close to the chest' thread i'm increasingly convinced will be the announcement that all model 3 cars will have all of the hardware required for fully autonomous driving, as well as the announcement of tesla's shared mobility platform that will be available once regulatory approvals for fully autonomous vehicles are in place. maybe i'm dreaming, but i think it fits with the context of his recent tweets about phase 2.

In my opinion, phase 2 of the Model 3 reveal will be when virtually all the specifics are worked out when the very first Model 3s are delivered. This will follow the pattern of the Model S, whose prototype was unveiled in early 2009 and founders delivered in June 2012, and the Model X, whose prototype was unveiled in February 2012 and Founders delivered in September 2015. My prediction is that Tesla will deliver the first Model 3s (this will be phase 2) during December 2017.

Instead of the typical three year window between reveals, I trust that Tesla will deliver the first vehicles on time due to:
1) The company's focus: The Model 3 has been one of the company's main focus points for years (a ton of R&D in previous years was for the M3), but now its development is the company's main focus. Instead of working on one or two other vehicles, they will be able to concentrate all of their efforts into constructing and perfecting the assembly line for the 3.
2) Simplicity: They've learned their lesson from over-engineering the Model X (just read the delivery press release from yesterday), and have designed the 3 for a much smoother production ramp.

In terms of announcing Tesla's future shared mobility platform, I think that will come later on. I just don't think the public will be ready for an autonomous Uber-like service by the end of next year. Unless you really follow the developments of autonomous driving, which most don't, you will be frightened by such an idea and reluctant to use it. They will announce it once the public is more accustomed to driverless technology and just about all of the legality issues are solved.

 

[tander]

Earlier he even invoked the "Stormy over Shortsville" line from the 2013 short squeeze which I think is what permanently broke something vital in Mark Spiegel aka Logical Thought's mind.

Is he still opining on Tesla? Has he driven one yet?

 

[tander]

Now let's revisit China, what are you offering us? Sweeten the deal, otherwise we're going to India where the population is just as high.

So here's a big chunk of speculation, what if Tesla is the first US company to manufacture in China without a partner?

 

[MikeC]

Earlier he even invoked the "Stormy over Shortsville" line from the 2013 short squeeze

Where did he say that?

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Where did he say that?

Elon Musk on Twitter

Posted by bh1783 on the last page.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Today's price action was a nice surprise. It does drive home to me the fact that I have no predictive powers on where TSLA will go on any given day.

Outside of TMC, I am observing shock from people on the reservation numbers.

 

[Johan]

Where did he say that?

 

[SBenson]

Is he still opining on Tesla? Has he driven one yet?

Are you kidding? He spends as much time on Twitter bashing Tesla as we do praising here on TMC.

Mark B. Spiegel (@markbspiegel) | Twitter

 

[Hache]

PARIS (Reuters) - French Energy Minister Segolene Royal has suggested to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) founder Elon Musk that he builds an electric car factory on the site of France's oldest nuclear reactor after it closes at the end of the year, AFP reported on Tuesday.

French President Francois Hollande has pledged to close down the Fessenheim nuclear plant in the Alsace region near the German border but has met strong resistance from local politicians and unions worried about job losses.

"The main problem is the site's transformation," Royal said at a briefing, according to the news agency. "We need to give hope to this community. My idea is to bring a Tesla factory."

The outspoken minister, who has courted controversy before with off-the-cuff statements, said she had mentioned the idea to Musk himself and would see Tesla's management in 10 days.

"I said to him: 'I have a place for you, Fessenheim'. He didn't say no," Royal said. "Who dares, wins," she said.

Royal's staff did not return a request from Reuters for comment.

French utility EDF (NYSE: EDF) says it employs 850 people at the Fessenheim site and 250 contractors.

France has been a big supporter of electric cars, offering a bonus of up to 10,000 euros ($11,000) for the purchase of such cars and making the country the biggest market in Europe.

Royal herself invested public funds in a now-defunct electric car maker when she was head of a French region.

Tesla's Musk said he wanted to build a factory in Europe and mentioned Alsace in a video published by the specialist car website Automobile Propre in February.

"This is idle speculation, but maybe we could put a factory in Alsace, it's like half in Germany, half in France, something like that," Musk said in the video.



(Reporting by Michel Rose)

Being french, I wouldn't put lots of thoughts into this. Ségolène Royal is well known for generating buzz with her comments, but to no end...

 

[hockeythug]

I didn't even follow the guy but still blocked him on Twitter.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I was most interested in some analysts impressions on a recent visit to Tesla. To paraphrase, they said that not only could nobody compete with the Model X, nobody could compete with the production line that makes it. (Competitors would strugge to replicate the Model X production line - was closer to the exact wording).

I agree with that, I had the factory tour last Tuesday, before picking up my Model X. Watching the Model X taking shape as they take you passed the various sections, starting with the X parts stamped out of a 20,000 lbs roll of aluminum all the way to a complete car rolling off the assembly line--the whole build takes less than four days! With the result being a flawless car that ends up in the tent to be delivered the next day (after final inspection) to happy new owners like me. Tesla has been able to achieve amazing efficiencies in the factory, and not to forget: in the ordering, financing and delivery processes also!

 

[doctoxics]

Does anyone want to opine on whether Q1 earnings miss in May will ding things or if the market has it priced in as much as it will be?

Model 3 deposits and fully optioned Model Xs will largely offset the loss of revenue from not meeting delivery guidance. As others have said, guidance going forward will be more important than earnings or revenue at Q1 earnings report.

 

[madodel]

Is he still opining on Tesla? Has he driven one yet?

That would crush the delusion.

 

[MikeC]

View attachment 170853

Thanks - I remember that one very well. Possibly my favorite tweet of all time.

Julian said he "invoked" it so I thought he had repeated it again somewhere.

 

[BobSk]

I believe we'll cleanly bust through 255 after Elon announces new M3 numbers on Wednesday. They're certainly going to be above 300,000 and you might be surprised by how much above.

My calculation shows it passed 300,000 by Sunday afternoon. The first whole week number will be around 380,000.

 

[hoang51]

Strange dip in aftermarket down to $249.583 on 3.18k according to Google Finance. Now it's back up to $255.47. Now the wait for the one week Model 3 reservation update tomorrow.

 

[AudubonB]

Moderator Note:
There is a thread devoted to New Plant Locations, as here: New Tesla Factory Location(s)
Please confine this forum to items exclusive to short-term trading. Thank you. Prior posts regarding the above may have been ported over and no longer here.

 

[doctoxics]

Hmm, anyone got suggestions on where to go to read up on the most recent battery advancement?

Also the current battery tesla is using and its composition?

Most of what I know came from lectures by JB Strauble.

 

[BobSk]

Now let's revisit China, what are you offering us? Sweeten the deal, otherwise we're going to India where the population is just as high.

China will not offer anything significant. Google tried, Facebook tried, Tesla tried. It's not easy to do business there. They force Tesla to have a 50/50 joint venture. I don't think that's right. Tesla is doing something good for the humanity. China is worried about their own car companies.

 

[Muaddid]

China will not offer anything significant. Google tried, Facebook tried, Tesla tried. It's not easy to do business there. They force Tesla to have a 50/50 joint venture. I don't think that's right. Tesla is doing something good for the humanity. China is worried about their own car companies.

Any reason not to simply go for India then ? plenty of people there and from what I recall reading, they seemed to be much more open to Tesla than China

South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Africa, Austalia and New Zealand could all be served by that same factory to limit shipping fees too.