Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Tslynk67]

OK, as you asked, I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about, Julian - complete gobbledegook to me!

But if I cut out all the jargon, I think your gist is that the SP is going to dramatically drop over the summer, before going vertical entering autumn?

I personally don't support that view. I think we will get some small dips - as we've seen these last weeks, based on a combination of FUD and other manipulations - but the SP will recover and gradually go higher, with the occasional 2-3% daily jump upward.

I hasten to add that I have no ****** idea what I'm talking about compared to many of you here, but I only see good news and more good news about TSLA, the "bad" news isn't at all significant IMO.

I still see absolutely no competitor for Tesla - many are talking about buiding BEV, but where are they? Even if they made them, where's the SuC equivalent network? Apple? I don't believe it, will be a long time coming IMO.

 

[dha]

Its not visibility of the production lines that matters, its the event that most likely coincides with a 180 from stealth mode to a show of strength which they will very likely need to do to send the stock off the charts

Forgive me but all I see here is a bunch of vague innuendo without an actual answer to the question of what the specific nature of the GF catalyst will be.

Tesla have already announced the beginning of GF production for stationary storage. That is not the definition of "stealth mode." They have provided regular progress updates and made their plans crystal clear. What, specifically, do you envision the company doing as a "show of strength"

 

[Julian Cox]

Forgive me but all I see here is a bunch of vague innuendo without an actual answer to the question of what the specific nature of the GF catalyst will be.

Tesla have already announced the beginning of GF production for stationary storage. That is not the definition of "stealth mode." They have provided regular progress updates and made their plans crystal clear. What, specifically, do you envision the company doing as a "show of strength"

There probably ought to come a point when giving away more is too much information.

Put it this way, removing all doubt that Model 3 is in the bag at double or triple previously announced target production volumes with or without the need for accelerator capital solely for the US market and that the company is doing great. But if the market is feeling generous well........

 

[dha]

There probably ought to come a point when giving away more is too much information.

Put it this way, removing all doubt that Model 3 is in the bag at double or triple previously announced target production volumes with or without the need for accelerator capital solely for the US market and that the company is doing great. But if the market is feeling generous well........

I hope you can appreciate why some members of the forum may find it off-putting when others make all sorts of oracular pronouncements then act coy when pressed on the details.

 

[DrJohnM]

Oil makes big gains on stronger market outlook - FT.com

Crude oil charged to its highest level since early November on Thursday, before pulling back slightly, as traders looked past the current glut to signs of a stronger market in the coming months.

Benchmark ICE June Brent futures climbed as much as 0.7 per cent to peak at $46.13 on Thursday, for a gain of more than 6 per cent so far this week. Nymex May West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, climbed as much as 1.2 per cent to a high of $44.48, before easing back to $44.16 in London morning trade. Crude was below $30 as recently as January. ​

 

[Runarbt]

Quote from Elon (Journalists words?) from a meeting with the norwegian Prime minister earlier today.
This is new information, or?

Google translate: Oles klode: Elon Musk: «Takk, Norge!»

"We have an idea. It's not exactly a bus. But we think differently about how we transport people. I will not say too much now, but we're working on something that can solve the problem of too many vehicles in cities. A new type of car, not a bus exactly, but ... which can carry people wherever they are going. Right from the door and where they are going, so that you avoid going to bus stations.

More precise, he would not be in fear of the headlines ..."

Perhaps part Two of model 3 reveal? A autonomous Uber-function? Or something else, still just an idea..?

 

[Hogfighter]

GF party not going to be a catalyst for SP. Just like most unveils, the market yawns when Tesla announces something. The only real catalyst in the future I see is announcing FCF positive, not only for a quarter, but staying FCF positive in the future. Probably not going to happen anytime soon with the increase in production of the 3.

I've said it before, the ramp of the X is going more slowly than they have planned, and are still encountering issues. How can you ramp quickly from here, with additional QA checks needed for each vehicle? I've lead a QA department, and it would be difficult to do. Most sensors work all the time, but some don't. The main issue I'm concerned about is that the car has what we call 'single point source failure'. In simple terms, there's no backup to prevent the FWDs to hit something if the primary sensors don't detect it. You could argue that the driver is the backup, but with kids getting in and out of the back all the time?

 

[Johan]

Musk is in Norway. This is what TU ("Technical Weekly") say in their article, Elon Musk: - Derfor har ikke Tesla satset på hydrogenbiler

"We have an idea, which isn't exactly a buss, but something that could solve the problem of dense traffic in city centres. I think we have to re-imagine the concept of collective transport, and create something that people will like better [than today]. I don't want to talk too much about it.

- I have to be careful with what I choose to say, Musk said, and remarked that even small comments from him will often tend to become big news in the international press.

But he is talking about a new type of vehicle with the purpose of bringing people [the whole way] to their final destinations.

- Driverless cars play a key role, Musk says."

I want to try to find some video interviews and not just read the second hand info on this stuff. Interesting indeed.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is the link with embedded video of Elon making general remarks during the event in Oslo. Unfortunately, the video does not include the following QA session, but hopefully QA session video will surface some time today.

 

[jhm]

Quote from Elon (Journalists words?) from a meeting with the norwegian Prime minister earlier today.
This is new information, or?

Google translate: Oles klode: Elon Musk: «Takk, Norge!»

"We have an idea. It's not exactly a bus. But we think differently about how we transport people. I will not say too much now, but we're working on something that can solve the problem of too many vehicles in cities. A new type of car, not a bus exactly, but ... which can carry people wherever they are going. Right from the door and where they are going, so that you avoid going to bus stations.

More precise, he would not be in fear of the headlines ..."

Perhaps part Two of model 3 reveal? A autonomous Uber-function? Or something else, still just an idea..?

If you're going to make a built for purpose autonomous fleet vehicle, you may do well to have a shuttle that can transport multiple persons. Real-time routing can pick up passengers along the way or allow passengers to block additional passengers for an incremental fee. Municipal transit authorities could be quite interested in new adaptive technology for mass transit. There are huge opportunities to innovate in this space. The Uber model with single passengers is not as efficient as a multi-passenger shuttle system could be.

 

[tanner]

Here is the link with embedded video of Elon making general remarks during the event in Oslo. Unfortunately, the video does not include the following QA session, but hopefully QA session video will surface some time today.

Yes, it would appear less than 400,000 M3 reservations. May have a negative impact (like it did last time numbers were announced) once news spreads.

 

[elel]

Here is the link with embedded video of Elon making general remarks during the event in Oslo. Unfortunately, the video does not include the following QA session, but hopefully QA session video will surface some time today.

Video of entire session: VGTV
Skip to 20:15 for keynote, 29:00 for QA.

 

[RationalOptimist]

If you're going to make a built for purpose autonomous fleet vehicle, you may do well to have a shuttle that can transport multiple persons. Real-time routing can pick up passengers along the way or allow passengers to block additional passengers for an incremental fee. Municipal transit authorities could be quite interested in new adaptive technology for mass transit. There are huge opportunities to innovate in this space. The Uber model with single passengers is not as efficient as a multi-passenger shuttle system could be.

Exactly! Honestly, this seems massive to me. It's a brilliant end-run around Apple and Google's and Uber's individual car strategy... The cost per ride could be <50% what you can manage w individual car. The AI will need to be spectacular though. Otherwise... just as you're nearing your destination, the bus takes a hard left to pick up a new passenger, while the whole bus boos! However, smart AI is what Tesla is all about.

 

[Crowded Mind]

If you're going to make a built for purpose autonomous fleet vehicle, you may do well to have a shuttle that can transport multiple persons. Real-time routing can pick up passengers along the way or allow passengers to block additional passengers for an incremental fee. Municipal transit authorities could be quite interested in new adaptive technology for mass transit. There are huge opportunities to innovate in this space. The Uber model with single passengers is not as efficient as a multi-passenger shuttle system could be.

Uber and Lyft are working on this with Uber Pool and Lyft Line. Just in the initial testing stage from what I can tell.

{{meta.title || 'A ride whenever you need one' }}{{meta.signoff || ' - Lyft'}}
https://help.uber.com/h/5d3fa7d0-9831-4ead-b4f4-0299eb443ea2

 

[dmckinstry]

It's just originally it was said it would be held in April. Now 1st half of 2016. Hence the "delayed".

Maybe I'm wrong, but my recollection is that the announcement for the date would be in March or April. Not the actual event.

 

[tanner]

Any thoughts on short term SP today? Thanks

 

[Johan]

Any thoughts on short term SP today? Thanks

Do you perhaps have something to contribute yourself?

 

[tanner]

Do you perhaps have something to contribute yourself?

I did before, concerning the (underwhelming) number of reservations that have allegedly been added since closer to the beginning of the month.

 

[FredTMC]

I did before, concerning the (underwhelming) number of reservations that have allegedly been added since closer to the beginning of the month.

Eh? Have you ever walked into a store, realized the line was "too long" and then walked out? I do...

 

[Bet TSLA]

Any thoughts on short term SP today? Thanks

It will fluctuate.