Like I said, I think about 2 months although with the caution that the periodicity on TSLA seems to be getting progressively tighter. I think hanging in for a full $150 would be for the insane - not sure even I would have the guts for that - last one of these I spotted there was a $30 overshoot to the absolute top after I had seen enough - a good $100 in 6 weeks I think is on the sensible side - if ALL conditions are met going in. It's not about the absolute amount it is about the conditions that lead to near certainty of a great outcome.
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Like I said, I think about 2 months although with the caution that the periodicity on TSLA seems to be getting progressively tighter. I think hanging in for a full $150 would be for the insane - not sure even I would have the guts for that - last one of these I spotted there was a $30 overshoot to the absolute top after I had seen enough - a good $100 in 6 weeks I think is on the sensible side - if ALL conditions are met going in. It's not about the absolute amount it is about the conditions that lead to near certainty of a great outcome.
MartinAustin
Active Member
BMW Loses Core Development Team of Its i3 and i8 Electric Vehicle Line
Did this get posted here yet? I don't recall seeing it. Not directly TSLA-related, but it reads like it was written by Julian so I thought it was relevant
Did this get posted here yet? I don't recall seeing it. Not directly TSLA-related, but it reads like it was written by Julian so I thought it was relevant
If I had to guess, which I don't, it would be $180 through as high as $420 if the timing is late June with the bandwidth and certainty compressing the sooner they go for it. So for example if they run an upbeat Q1 ER and announce the GF thing two weeks later then probably more $240 to $310 ish - which would be a waste IMO on their part and judging by past performance they are masters of this game and they will know this to be true.
I mean for goodness sake we sit here chatting away, I say buy at $200 and $160 flipping Elon buys at $193 and about $150 times $100 million a pop and the shorts make out like he's the one at their mercy!!!!!
I am not a gambler and touch wood I don't take losses. I would much rather feel that I knew about $150 of upside than to guess and hope about $240, the remainder is safety margin and bunce for the braver than I if it happens. I don't want to say more about what I think is on those Aces in this discussion. I should also say that if all goes to plan this will be a squeeze and squeezes crest. The object is to get real happy before it does rather than get rich on paper for a week.
If this concept actually holds and Tesla continues to do everything according to plan (which so far it has although I should state for full disclosure with the one - but I think on balance acceptable departure of disclosing its early M3 reservation numbers) I would be very interested in the input of technical traders about what to do about a highly suspected but uncertain overshoot. My default method of dealing with these things is to call a disciplined out and be happy with that - but the chance of leaving a lot on the table in that case should be very high if the happy tide line is intentionally very safe.
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Well, my point is that regardless of the Aces involved, the capital raise is most advantageous at the highest absolute SP price. So if true, why the trap that leads to the drop down to $180, or whatever, is necessary?
everman
Member
What time horizon would you suggest for the $100 OTM calls when constructing this trade?
One posibility is they announce capital raise at ER plus earning fell short of expectation or reduced delicery goal for the year. Coupled with another oil crash. The short will jump at this chance to bring TSLA down to below $200
I am not saying that fall in SP is not possible. What I do not understand is, based on assumption that this is Elon's game, why would he want the SP dip before it goes north of $400? His goal ostensibly is to do capital raise at the max. possible SP, so why would he play the trap game?
Not time horizon, event horizon. The timing remains an unknown but it seems that the event to dictate the timing has plausibly come into view and its an event that will come with advance notice here on this thread which is what would make it uniquely tradeable. Assuming Tesla does not do something to blow out the entire thesis in the meantime like just doing a raise then the timing will be indicative of the extent of the trade. Optimum for my taste is late June early July for the kind of numbers we are talking about. Much earlier than that then the extend will likely diminish below $100 and very much earlier than that would be a scrubbed launch as far as I am concerned. The good news is that the uncertainties going in will progressively diminish.
For now all I actually really wanted to input is that it seems to me that a delayed GF unveil will define the event horizon we're looking for assuming it is delayed enough to cause the naysayers to tank the stock on media speculation about M3 and GF delays.
Mostly I guess I got my answer that I am not just talking to a brick wall. So that's cool. If I think of something useful to say then I guess I will.
That would be the worst capital raise in Tesla's history. They simply won't combine a bad ER with capital raise at the same time. Not in the interest for upper management, company, shareholders, or anyone else except for TSLA bears.
Aside from doubting that Elon would play for a dip by delaying the GF event, I think there is another dynamic developing, under which the SP is likely to stay relatively flat until the trigger event Julian is describing. I need to do a little digging before describing what I think this dynamic is, but a little short on time, so plan to post my theory over the weekend.
To Elon there is no real distinction between bought and borrowed stock. Every now and again he and his MS & GS Wall Street buddies have proven to have the power to just add them together for a while to raise money. He has done it twice already and I don't suppose he's gotten any worse at it with experience. First time he did it was to cover the DOE loan and it was a stunning masterpiece of financial engineering replete with denial of liquidity for short covering. Second time was for the Gigafactory bond fundraiser - by which time the pattern was predictable enough to call it (which I did x 7000%). This if he does for the M3 it would be the third time.
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
I think that the M3 reveal and reservations has brought a lot of new and potential new buyers to TSLA. I believe recent SP movements have been relatively small at least partially because of this support. I fully believe in the scenario that Julian has put forward. I do wonder how much of a dip will occur in the next few months. I'm not sure I will count on much for buying opportunities. Would welcome other opinions on this but I am keeping some longer OTM calls in my portfolio so I don't miss out.
Edit: vgrinshpun While I was typing, you took the words right out of my mouth.
Edit: vgrinshpun While I was typing, you took the words right out of my mouth.
We both are wondering whether there will be support for the SP before the trigger event, but the reasoning is different. You think that the support will be due to new buyers coming to the table, but my theory is different...
BriansTesla
Old school meets new tech
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Yeah, I get what you're talking about. You've got a decent big picture vision and you're extrapolating it into specific details with a time-line. I think you are mesmerized by your own words, and it's unlikely that any of the details work out as you're confidently predicting.
So, yes, I agree that Tesla will go up big, probably this year. But I think it's started already and will just continue. With the huge Model 3 reservation overhang it's just a question of execution. All the big boys want in, but need to get in slowly over time. To me that means that no big dip will happen, because every time it starts one fund or another will swoop in to bulk up their share count. It will be a slow boil of anybody who is short, so there won't be a short squeeze because they'll die slowly, not all at once.
So why don't I believe your details? One, everybody always gets the details wrong. Two, every time you talk about something I know about you're just plain wrong. Latest example -- Ford will die in part because "Apple will strip Ford of its economy vehicle sales." In short: no, never. Apple doesn't do low end. Ever. And there's still no clarity on whether they will ever do a vehicle. That you believe that they will certainly do this is so wrong-headed that once again I don't feel I can believe anything else you talk about. Where do your delusions start and end?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
My question what importance does the GF unveil have. They have already announced TE Pack production has started and that cell production is starting end of 2016. And why is the unveil date, that appears to have nothing to do with actual production going to move the stock?
By understating their margins in an attempt to hide battery pack costs they've managed to convince most of the market that their TE margins negligible. Showing powerpacks and powerwalls rolling off the line won't change that. To change that perception they need to either stop attempting to hide their pack prices or show their profits on an ER-CC. I'm not trying to disagree with your theory. I can't see anything about a GF unveil that will impact the SP.
In the history of Tesla has a factory unveil (MS line at Fremont for example) ever had an impact on the SP?
TSLA IMO is an inverse stock. By that I mean volatile trading Shorts comprising the free float outweigh volatile trading Longs like 20:1. The stock sinks on bear confidence not Long despair. What looks like support is probably covering and what looks like a bull run is actually a negative bear run - bears tripping over each other to run away. The volatile trading longs don't have stock enough to influence the outcome one way or the other because the bulk of the stock held long is held and lent out by institutions probably with long term time horizons and its held by insiders including a guy that holds 27% or something of the entire float with a public commitment not to trade any of it.
The upshot of this is the only thing that really matters is what the shorts think the longs think about the whole thing. Not what the longs actually think or even what the shorts think if they were honest with themselves which in public they are not. Ever noticed that in public the shorts essentially never discuss short trading strategies, timing and price targets but instead are forever trying to persuade some imaginary long to dump the stock for various reasons and with varying levels of conviction.
What we are looking for here is not other Longs but a short trying to put himself in the shoes of a Long. We need to be ask that imaginary fellow with a brain borrowed from a Short what he thinks of the news - because that made up character that does not even exist in reality is Mr Market when it comes to TSLA.
If this construct of Mr Market gets scared about things that matter to shorts the stock goes down. If he gets bolder about things that defy the shorts, the stock goes up. Totally unlike a genuine Long, he believes that the shorts are actually right and the stock will descend to some fundamentals valuation based on the average automotive sector price per car metric or something of that nature. What he never has is real foresight because he's a contemptible character that is forever kidding himself that the greater fool theory is the only thing keeping him safe and he's forever concerned that the market will finally become rational and end his solvency. As for Tesla Energy it does not exist let alone compute because that kind of thing belongs in the automotive supply chain and completely off the books. No matter how many times TSLA trades level to positive through capital raises, he worries that dilutive raises that tank stocks is the only option to push the inevitable day of reckoning for this Ponzi scheme downstream.
This is the guy looking out on a lackluster Q1 and worrying about how to deal with the problem of not going bust trying to make 400,000 Model 3s on time while the big auto players are breathing down his neck. This is also the guy that is going to get flipping served out of left field with a bevy of Model S Model X and Tesla Energy cash flows on Q2 ER plus a live Gigafactory with a load of Panasonic cash behind it with a bunch of profits hard at heel in Q3/Q4.
There is a Mark Twain quote about that - what you're sure you know that just ain't so or something to that effect. Apple mobility if it happens will not likely be a drivers car at all and if it isn't then it will be ridiculously cheaper and more attractive as a way to get from A to B in cities than buying any car that is bought out of pure necessity, for example cheap city cars from Ford. The luxury car market for people that like lateral g-force around bends etc will not be catered to or particularly affected by what I think Apple is planning. There is only one silly thing Apple can do and that is to go head to head with Tesla - and why bother with an unforced error like that with all the hard-core mechanical engineering hassles when the whole mobility market is up for grabs and Apple has a virtual monopoly on digital content and intuitive user interfaces to make getting in a simple utilitarian city transit vehicle styled like something out of Star Trek a cool lifestyle event with wall to wall infotainment up-sell potential.
Its not visibility of the production lines that matters, its the event that most likely coincides with a 180 from stealth mode to a show of strength which they will very likely need to do to send the stock off the charts for a raise. Before then they are much better off letting competitors talk themselves back to sleep imagining that there is only financial problems and hubris at Tesla and nothing to fear - hence a definite before and after for the stock. This is all about simply seeking a tradeable demarcation line with low, safely estimable high and timing all knowable in advance.
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