Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[SW2Fiddler]

@vgrinshpun That's terrible!

Way to go, @nissan.
Your derivative advert is merely reminding people about Tesla Motors' Model 3 - and if they didn't already know, now they will go look up "the electric with a waiting list!"
As a TSLA shareholder I thank you.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Nissan believes no one should have any reservations and, true to form, they don't have any!

 

[jhm]

I can't remember the source (and you can google as easily as I can) but there was a study by a big energy company that said it was cheaper to add battery storage than build new peaker plants, at anything less than (IIRC) $800/kW. Note that's power delivered, not energy stored. So for $162k you can deliver 100kW from the batteries, or $1 620/kW. If you count energy stored, it comes to half that: $810/kWh. Surprise, those figures are very similar.

I interpreted Elon's $250/kWh to be cost (to Tesla) not price (to customer), and after the Gigafactory was up and running at full capacity and cost savings.

We don't need to get into the weeds here, but the short answer is that collocating Powerpack at places of consumption or generation can add value and reduce costs relative to a freestanding battery peaking facility. So the comparison is even more favorable for batteries than what that analysis considered.

In short, Tesla has priced Powerpacks low enough to disrupt the market for gas peakers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I can't remember the source (and you can google as easily as I can) but there was a study by a big energy company that said it was cheaper to add battery storage than build new peaker plants, at anything less than (IIRC) $800/kW. Note that's power delivered, not energy stored. So for $162k you can deliver 100kW from the batteries, or $1 620/kW. If you count energy stored, it comes to half that: $810/kWh. Surprise, those figures are very similar.

I interpreted Elon's $250/kWh to be cost (to Tesla) not price (to customer), and after the Gigafactory was up and running at full capacity and cost savings.

They are very guarded about their cost,will likely never reveal it. The tweet was definitely about price to customers:

 

[AlMc]

I actually jumped in for the next week $250 calls, 20 contracts at average buy price of $5.63. Will try to set time delayed call spread. Hope to sell upper leg, $255 - $260 at the same price...

Yep. Picked up $260 weeklies and some June 300s. Small amounts

 

[Johan]

They are very guarded about their cost,will likely never reveal it. The tweet was definitely about price to customers:
View attachment 173498

For all we know the 250 figure may well be what they have offered as their absolute best price to some pioneer big customer projects, that have a large proof of concept value to Tesla. It can be important sometimes to score a couple of large contracts (even at lowish margins) in order to break ground with a new product line, to spark interest and progress from the extremely early adopter stage to the regular early adopter stage.

 

[AlMc]

For all we know the 250 figure may well be what they have offered as their absolute best price to some pioneer big customer projects, that have a large proof of concept value to Tesla. It can be important sometimes to score a couple of large contracts (even at lowish margins) in order to break ground with a new product line, to spark interest and progress from the extremely early adopter stage to the regular early adopter stage.

The reverse strategy of selling TM autos!

 

[MitchJi]

Also Hogfighter used 1600-1800 per week which is their guided average. Max production per week is 2k. I'm not saying that they will make it, just pointing out that there is a possible path.

And:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ours-the-tesla-factory-and-loves-what-it-sees

The body assembly line is now rated to produce about 175,000 cars a year, with final assembly capability of more than 100,000 cars.

I could not find the $200 per kWh link, but I found the following:
This is what could send Tesla shares higher

Tesla’s battery cost reductions are likely ahead of most estimates, they said. The company’s current battery costs are about $150 to $200 per kilowatt hour, whereas average pack costs are about $350/kWh, the analysts said.

Tesla could reach its under-$100/kWh target in the medium term as its battery factory outside Reno, Nev., starts production in greater numbers, the Baird analysts said. That will allow the company to produce the Model 3 "with healthy margins, and to invest in vehicle aesthetics and performance, placing it above competing vehicles," the analysts said.

How Soon Can Tesla Get Battery Cell Costs Below $100 per Kilowatt-Hour?

A complete battery pack "typically adds 20 percent above the cost of cells," according to David Snydacker, a battery expert at Dosima Research.)

GM is paying $145 per kWh for cells, a pack cost of 250 per kWh would mean either that Tesla's is paying more for cells than GM or that their pack costs (enclosures, BMS etc.) are $105 per kWh. IMO those are both impossible.

 

[Ulmo]

Is there a news blackout on Tesla? I don't see any of the new Tesla items reported here on the main news channels.

Ugh. The one day I don't pay attention. My timing as always. I need to build things myself instead of watching other people build things.

 

[Julian Cox]

For all we know the 250 figure may well be what they have offered as their absolute best price to some pioneer big customer projects, that have a large proof of concept value to Tesla. It can be important sometimes to score a couple of large contracts (even at lowish margins) in order to break ground with a new product line, to spark interest and progress from the extremely early adopter stage to the regular early adopter stage.

There is a stack of smart grid services with Powerpack that Tesla can charge money for on top of the base $ per KWh. Just saying. Welcome to Tesla OTA networked energy, wired if available, no problem if its in the middle of a field.

 

[Julian Cox]

Is there a news blackout on Tesla? I don't see any of the new Tesla items reported here on the main news channels.

Ugh. The one day I don't pay attention. My timing as always. I need to build things myself instead of watching other people build things.

They are not automotive products so they don't exist

 

[vgrinshpun]

Is there a news blackout on Tesla? I don't see any of the new Tesla items reported here on the main news channels.

Ugh. The one day I don't pay attention. My timing as always. I need to build things myself instead of watching other people build things.

They are scrambling to understand what all this means and how it can be negatively spun. They have weekend to ponder this.

I am actually expecting some analysts notes on the TE developments, which should bode well for SP.

Also, I am wondering if there are more rabbits in that hat, particularly for the ER. Conventional wisdom would be that the excellent TE news is worth revealing after the ER, if Q1 bottom line is bad.

One surprise, of sorts, would be $180M cash inflow from the reservations for Model 3 taken on March 31st. Another possible surprise, I think, could be ZEV credits. In 2015, if I remember correctly, they sold fewer than in 2014, while obviously selling significantly more cars in 2015.

It makes sense to hoard ZEV credits during the 2015, if 2016 is supposed to be "cash is king" year...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Does this confirm FF is a "secret" Tesla partner? Maybe FF is how Tesla plans to accelerate production and ultimately build a few million vehicles annually by 2025?

Another EV factory in the neighborhood will further reduce the cost to source, build, and repurpose EV batteries.

FF is a covert project for something and I don't think it's the Apple Car. I'm still not convinced Apple is planning to build its own vehicle. I think it's far more likely Apple is going to help accelerate the development of an EV supply chain for all automobile manufacturers, that will make it possible for 10 million + EVs to be built every year at some point in the future. Thoughts?

Faraday Future hires Tesla exec to manage its $1 billion EV factory in Nevada

Before joining Tesla as Director of Global Supplier Industrialization in 2014, De Haan had a long career spanning over 20 years at automotive giant Magna. He held General Manager roles at two of Magna’s factories prior to joining Tesla: Puebla, Mexico (2007-2013) and Liberty, MO (2013-2014)

 

[vgrinshpun]

Does this confirm FF is a "secret" Tesla partner?

Faraday Future hires Tesla exec to manage its $1 billion EV factory in Nevada

No, they are full of former Tesla executives.

My personal opinion is that at this time they are complete vaporware. Does not mean that it can't change, but they are currently 100% sizzle, no steak, to borrow an expression from the well regarded member here...

 

[Crowded Mind]

Does this confirm FF is a "secret" Tesla partner?

Faraday Future hires Tesla exec to manage its $1 billion EV factory in Nevada

Why would it? No, IMO.

 

[Tslynk67]

A happy ending, I would say, given the volatility this week. I predict 265+ this time next week.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Why would it? No, IMO.

See the additional comments I added to the original post.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Look, @FANGO, you keep giving me dislikes whenever I have something to say about Tesla competition.

Just in case you are missing it, I am not against them producing and selling EVs, and welcome this as much as you do.

What I am criticizing is ridiculous, Tesla disparaging advertising in case of Nissan, and off the wall, absurd comparisons between the Bolt and Model 3.

It is possible that I am not getting it. If true, what's the rub?

 

[BobSk]

This is my prediction: Faraday Future will waste some money, make lots of noise for a few years, then take the IPO route. The owner will make some money through the IPO. Produce a car but no buyers. Then file for bankruptcy. I almost think it's already planned that way. Anyone who has some business sense should know they have no chance to compete against Tesla.

 

[Fallenone]

They are scrambling to understand what all this means and how it can be negatively spun. They have weekend to ponder this.

I am actually expecting some analysts notes on the TE developments, which should bode well for SP.

Also, I am wondering if there are more rabbits in that hat, particularly for the ER. Conventional wisdom would be that the excellent TE news is worth revealing after the ER, if Q1 bottom line is bad.

One surprise, of sorts, would be $180M cash inflow from the reservations for Model 3 taken on March 31st. Another possible surprise, I think, could be ZEV credits. In 2015, if I remember correctly, they sold fewer than in 2014, while obviously selling significantly more cars in 2015.

It makes sense to hoard ZEV credits during the 2015, if 2016 is supposed to be "cash is king" year...

They said explicitly in Q3 2015 letter they will not sell ZEV in Q4 2015. They eventually still sold 5M ZEV in Q4 2015. Still, adding Q1 2016, they should be sitting on a hoard of ~100M worth of ZEV now. Only question is do they use this for this quarter to make financial not as bad (due to miss on delivery), or continue to save it and use it in Q2 to make it a blast.