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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Does this confirm FF is a "secret" Tesla partner? Maybe FF is how Tesla plans to accelerate production and ultimately build a few million vehicles annually by 2025?

Another EV factory in the neighborhood will further reduce the cost to source, build, and repurpose EV batteries.

FF is a covert project for something and I don't think it's the Apple Car. I'm still not convinced Apple is planning to build its own vehicle. I think it's far more likely Apple is going to help accelerate the development of an EV supply chain for all automobile manufacturers, that will make it possible for 10 million + EVs to be built every year at some point in the future. Thoughts?

Faraday Future hires Tesla exec to manage its $1 billion EV factory in Nevada
No. FF is a pet project of Jia Yueting's LeTV enterprise.
 
This is my prediction: Faraday Future will waste some money, make lots of noise for a few years, then take the IPO route. The owner will make some money through the IPO. Produce a car but no buyers. Then file for bankruptcy. I almost think it's already planned that way. Anyone who has some business sense should know they have no chance to compete against Tesla.

This is similar to Tesla Motors during its infancy... But we all know how it worked out.
 
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This is my prediction: Faraday Future will waste some money, make lots of noise for a few years, then take the IPO route. The owner will make some money through the IPO. Produce a car but no buyers. Then file for bankruptcy. I almost think it's already planned that way. Anyone who has some business sense should know they have no chance to compete against Tesla.

It sounds pretty legit from my limited knowledge of them. And considering that they aren't saddled with lot's of old technology like the Fords and GMs, it seems like that alone is a big chunk in their favor. Besides Tesla needs some competition, they've been front-running for a while now.
 
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They said explicitly in Q3 2015 letter they will not sell ZEV in Q4 2015. They eventually still sold 5M ZEV in Q4 2015. Still, adding Q1 2016, they should be sitting on a hoard of ~100M worth of ZEV now. Only question is do they use this for this quarter to make financial not as bad (due to miss on delivery), or continue to save it and use it in Q2 to make it a blast.

Are you sure about that 100m number Fallenone? My understanding was that ZEV credits were sort of losing their value, but that may have been temporary.
 
Look, @FANGO, you keep giving me dislikes whenever I have something to say about Tesla competition.

Just in case you are missing it, I am not against them producing and selling EVs, and welcome this as much as you do.

What I am criticizing is ridiculous, Tesla disparaging advertising in case of Nissan, and off the wall, absurd comparisons between the Bolt and Model 3.

It is possible that I am not getting it. If true, what's the rub?
It's not only criticism that's uncool, but joking about it is frowned upon too, apparently. Presumably because we are all on the same side, or something.

I'm disliking this acrid "you're not holy enough" attitude.
 
The Nissan commercial came off to me as totally parasitic, opportunistic and without class. But directly or inderectly trying to put down or tarnish the competition always makes yourself look weak, scared and irrelevant in the end. It seems beyond me that the people at an ad agency with a big client like Nissan didn't learn this their first day of the first class of advertising guy school. Anyhow, I got a good laugh from seeing the ad posted here and it has some relevance because once again it confirms how scared they all are of Tesla.

Other than that, I find that it's a good rule of thumb to use the like but at least 10 times more often than the dislike button.

I think I've read enough of Fango's posts to know that he's just being protective of the notion that there is both room and need for all sizes and classes of EVs, which is commendable. By the way we don't need another round of debate on how much range is enough for an EV. The new S broke the 300 mile EPA rating so that says something about how Tesla feels about that.
 
100M was a deduction of a % of their cars sold. I wasn't aware of the losing value part. In that case, it could be less.
I haven't been paying attention to what's going on with the zev stuff so that might have been a while ago. My understanding is that the price they get for them kind of fluctuates depending on demand and that demand was going down as more "green" cars get sold. Either way you are probably right the revenue from them is probably significant.
 
Thanks for posting this! :D
Based on additional information revealed at the ER call following the Tesla Energy reveal Elon also mentioned that this ($250/kWh) price will initially (while battery cells are sourced from Panasonic's factories) allow for a small margin, with gross margin increasing to approx 25% once GF is producing cells.
That is not what he or anyone at Tesla said.
Elon Musk said:
From the Tesla Motors (TSLA) Earnings Report: Q1 2015 Conference Call

The gross margin revenue obviously is going to change with time. When it's low volume, made in three months, it will be relatively low margin. Once we get to Gigafactory up and running and high-volume, get the economies of scale working, this is just a guess right now, but maybe it's somewhere around 20%. This is not like -- it's like we don't have enough information to say exactly what that would be, but probably 20% is a reasonable guess.
Tesla’s Gigafactory May Hit $100/kWh Holy Grail Of EV Batteries, Report Predicts
When Tesla first announced the Gigafactory, it clearly stated in its plans that it expected that battery pack cost per kilowatt hour would be greater than 30% by Model 3 volume ramp in 2017.

Panasonic (arguably more knowledgeable and experienced regarding lithium-ion production than any company in the world) admitted that a 30% reduction by 2017 was, indeed, a conservative prediction.
Most investors and analysts assumed that included the conservative 30% GF cost reductions, which does not add up. Unless a relatively low margin means minus 10%.
it's like we don't have enough information to say exactly what that would be
True, but he has an excellent idea. Tesla provides much more precision in their MX profits than on their stationary storage profits, despite the fact that EM stated that "we’re constantly agonizing about cell cost and pack cost". In other words they are trying to avoid disclosing their pack costs by understating their stationary storage margins.
 
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I think I've read enough of Fango's posts to know that he's just being protective of the notion that there is both room and need for all sizes and classes of EVs, which is commendable. By the way we don't need another round of debate on how much range is enough for an EV. The new S broke the 300 mile EPA rating so that says something about how Tesla feels about that.

And I do not see how my post contradicted his attempt of being protective of the notion you've mentioned.

In fact, if anything, should he then be offended by Nissan attacking Tesla? This does not make any sense to me, and that is why I posted a question to him.
 
I think I've read enough of Fango's posts to know that he's just being protective of the notion that there is both room and need for all sizes and classes of EVs, which is commendable. By the way we don't need another round of debate on how much range is enough for an EV. The new S broke the 300 mile EPA rating so that says something about how Tesla feels about that.

Hey thanks for pointing that out. Found an article that talks about it. Didn't see it posted anywhere else.

Official EPA Ratings For Refreshed Tesla Model S - 90D Range Is 303.2 Miles Highway
 
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Interesting close during a strange week for the market.
No. FF is a pet project of Jia Yueting's LeTV enterprise.

Jack Ma is a big proponent of Solar Power and Electric Vehicles. Jack Ma has hosted numerous discussions with Elon Musk. Strange. I can't find the video from the keynote from last year. Anyone have the link?

Also:

Jack Ma's YF Capital and Wang Jianlin's Wanda Investment invested in Jia's privately-held sports news site "Le Sports" in May 2015.
Jia Yueting
 
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Interesting close during a strange week for the market.


Jack Ma is a big proponent of Solar Power and Electric Vehicles. Jack Ma has hosted numerous discussions with Elon Musk. Strange. I can't find the video from the keynote from last year. Anyone have the link?

Also:


Jia Yueting
Bob Lutz and Elon Musk sat and the same table with Charlie Rose several years ago and expressed mutual respect to each other too. Having discussion together alone doesn't mean anything.
 
:cool:
The Nissan commercial came off to me as totally parasitic, opportunistic and without class. But directly or inderectly trying to put down or tarnish the competition always makes yourself look weak, scared and irrelevant in the end. It seems beyond me that the people at an ad agency with a big client like Nissan didn't learn this their first day of the first class of advertising guy school. Anyhow, I got a good laugh from seeing the ad posted here and it has some relevance because once again it confirms how scared they all are of Tesla.

Other than that, I find that it's a good rule of thumb to use the like but at least 10 times more often than the dislike button.

I think I've read enough of Fango's posts to know that he's just being protective of the notion that there is both room and need for all sizes and classes of EVs, which is commendable. By the way we don't need another round of debate on how much range is enough for an EV. The new S broke the 300 mile EPA rating so that says something about how Tesla feels about that.

I find the Nissan adverticement amusing. I consider it a congratulation on the Model 3; If you can't afford a Model S today, have ordered a Model 3, and you want an EV today, you have the possibility to get an EV; buy the Leaf while you wait for your Model 3

I don't know how the "smilie" went on the top and twice, but I can't remove them. One was supposed to be at the bottom of the post.:cool:
 
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Look. Nissan is sunk. Like EVs Hate EVs Love Nissan, Own a Leaf - makes no odds. Their business strategy has failed.

Model 3 pulls the value for money of EVs through the line where for Nissan to compete it would need to compete with its main business of selling ICE cars. Nissan is in absolutely no position to do that because it is completely survival dependent on the internal combustion engine.

Goshn's only hope and only strategy was to be at the front of the line when regulators forced consumers to pay more for EVs and forced him and his entire industry to supply. Consumers don't need to pay extra for an EV. That whole racket is over.

Faraday Future on the other hand is a good business in prospect. The market opportunity for newcomers to fall into line behind Tesla is immense. I suspect they will end up having to join Tesla's ecosystem to make any money in the long run but they will most likely be able to do so and if they differentiate their offering by any means then they will have a decent niche - even if that niche is geographical. Their special advantage as far as I can see is the ability to export American EV IP from the US to China and elsewhere including gleaning insights from ex Tesla employees. Not extremely cool but to be objective that is an opportunity that they have (unless a Trump POTUS spots the scam and shuts them down which he would be absolutely right to do in the strategic best interests of the United States - to protect Tesla and its negotiating position when it comes to a US company supplying the Chinese rather than enduring a Chinese company trying to do an end run around Tesla - isn't that interesting). Seriously can anyone even imagine the Chinese government putting up with a wholly owned US company siting itself in China and hoovering staff with Chinese IP for something uniquely Chinese so that the US does not have to negotiate with Chinese suppliers any more? For example Larry Page backing an R&D campus next to Alibaba and hiring away its staff for their trading platform ideas?

Meanwhile and unless such an intervention befalls them they will be one of the fastest routes for newcomers to get into the market. So for example LG Electronics / LG Chem following the guaranteed failure of the GM Bolt - and its failure proving to large battery makers that ICE vehicle companies are never going to become reliable customers - will quite likely look to Faraday for a vehicle platform to turn around compete with GM. Samsung may well follow suit.

This is not a problem for Tesla. Tesla is too far ahead to care about anyone just starting out of any scale.
 
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Get this - long video but worth it. This is a top ranked analyst (by results!) and a bunch of sensible rational people setting the stage for this stock. I would say this is what a critical mass of the market actually believes. Spoiler: Not a clue between them. Spoiler 2. IMO. The guy is a lucky SOB regardless with no clue as to why - basically but not really calling a buy at $180. And PT wise I agree with him. I also agree with him that the $143 to $260x was short covering, but then so are TSLA gains always. Spoiler 3: Tesla Energy what? Never a mention - oh and some guy running a $40 billion fund seems to think an 8 year warrantied battery that will likely last for 30 years will cost the consumer to replace it after 5 years. Extraordinary.


Talk about information advantage in plain sight.
 
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Get this - long video but worth it. This is a top ranked analyst (by results!) and a bunch of sensible rational people setting the stage for this stock. I would say this is what a critical mass of the market actually believes. Spoiler: Not a clue between them. Spoiler 2. IMO. The guy is a lucky SOB regardless with no clue as to why - basically but not really calling a buy at $180. And PT wise I agree with him. I also agree with him that the $143 to $260x was short covering, but then so are TSLA gains always. Spoiler 3: Tesla Energy what? Never a mention - oh and some guy running a $40 billion fund seems to think an 8 year warrantied battery that will likely last for 30 years will cost the consumer to replace it after 5 years. Extraordinary.


Talk about information advantage in plain sight.

Interesting video Julian. I agree about cluelessness. This isn't people knowingly trying to talk Tesla down. These are people who don't know any better (even though it should be their job to know better). This is information arbitrage if I ever saw it.

The problem of course is they should say: We haven't invested in TSLA because we do not understand the stock and company. Instead they say: We have deliberately avoided (and you should too) investing in TSLA because we can't wrap our heads around the valuation.

They were are still harping on about how Tesla has a market cap of $35Bn while Ford and GM are around $50Bn. Really guys? Still in 2016 this is their thinking? I hope they're buying oil like crazy, remember it usually trades at above $100/barrel.
 
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Consumers don't need to pay extra for an EV. That whole racket is over.

That racket isn't over until Tesla, or someone else, actually builds mass market cars that are better than their competition. There will be over a quarter Billion, with a B, cars sold before Tesla sells a sub 40 thousand dollar car.

For someone on the East coast or in Canada who wants a base Model 3, it could be four years. Also, if nobody is willing to even look at a 20 grand electric car that gets 100 miles; that doesn't speak well for the masses embracing a 40 grand electric that can get 200 miles.

Tesla has amazing marketing and brand awareness; But what is after that? Is it a fad, or a trend?
 
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