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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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That racket isn't over until Tesla, or someone else, actually builds mass market cars that are better than their competition. There will be over a quarter Billion, with a B, cars sold before Tesla sells a sub 40 thousand dollar car.

For someone on the East coast or in Canada who wants a base Model 3, it could be four years. Also, if nobody is willing to even look at a 20 grand electric car that gets 100 miles; that doesn't speak well for the masses embracing a 40 grand electric that can get 200 miles.

Tesla has amazing marketing and brand awareness; But what is after that? Is it a fad, or a trend?

A trend.

Also you forgot you're comparing a $20k ugly, slow EV with no fast charge network to a $40k sexy, quick 200 mile Tesla with the Supercharger network tied in.

But you didn't forget did you? It jut fits the bear narrative better to not mention that. But in the real world that must be why Tesla have 400k reservations and Nissan brag over the fact that they don't have a line forming for the Leaf.
 
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A trend.

Also you forgot you're comparing a $20k ugly, slow EV with no fast charge network to a $40k sexy, quick 200 mile Tesla with the Supercharger network tied in.

But you didn't forget did you? It jut fits the bear narrative better to not mention that. But in the real world that must be why Tesla have 400k reservations and Nissan brag over the fact that they don't have a line forming for the Leaf.

I didn't forget anything; My question was if people here doubt that today, thousands of people could be swayed towards a leaf, why in the future millions could be swayed towards a Model 3. For Tesla Stock to grow they will need to sell millions of Model 3's within 5 years of the start of production. If people here doubt non-Tesla electric cars; Than all electric cars come into question.
 
I didn't forget anything; My question was if people here doubt that today, thousands of people could be swayed towards a leaf, why in the future millions could be swayed towards a Model 3. For Tesla Stock to grow they will need to sell millions of Model 3's within 5 years of the start of production. If people here doubt non-Tesla electric cars; Than all electric cars come into question.

Bear playbook:

Competitor makes desirable EV = Tesla killer, Tesla is doomed

Competitor makes undesirable EV = no market for electric cars, Tesla is doomed
 
IMHO the Leaf EV is necessarily an "undesirable" electric car because it is made by a legacy ICE company. All legacy automakers have tremendous amount of capital invested and the last thing they want to do is to create a desirable EV, despite advertising and exhortations otherwise.

If it weren't for government/popular sticks and carrots we'd all still be driving V8's with leaded gasoline and tailfins, and having one last one for the road during our lunch hours (it's Miller time...). Oh, and no seatbelts because, well I can roll out of my car faster than it crashes, like they do on TV.
 
Get this - long video but worth it. This is a top ranked analyst (by results!) and a bunch of sensible rational people setting the stage for this stock. I would say this is what a critical mass of the market actually believes. Spoiler: Not a clue between them. Spoiler 2. IMO. The guy is a lucky SOB regardless with no clue as to why - basically but not really calling a buy at $180. And PT wise I agree with him. I also agree with him that the $143 to $260x was short covering, but then so are TSLA gains always. Spoiler 3: Tesla Energy what? Never a mention - oh and some guy running a $40 billion fund seems to think an 8 year warrantied battery that will likely last for 30 years will cost the consumer to replace it after 5 years. Extraordinary.


Talk about information advantage in plain sight.

"On any metric you look at it..."

To understand Tesla you have to understand engineering and design. The engineering and design metric do look incredible but many finance people don't get this and this guy completely ignores it in his analysis. It is more than engineering and design but that is enough to make them undervalued.

One thing that is surprising to me that finance people almost never mention even if it is their domain is how incredibly good Tesla has been with capital allocation. If you sum up the equity put into it from the start and then look at their net assets (including intangibles like brand value and human resources) at this point and then compare that to other automakers it is pretty clear they are many times more efficient. Will this continue at scale? It will as long as Musk is alive but difference might be slightly smaller.

So what happens if you have a company that is way more capital efficient, are better in engineering and design and also don't have the burden of outdated technology and old business structures?
 
"On any metric you look at it..."

To understand Tesla you have to understand engineering and design. The engineering and design metric do look incredible but many finance people don't get this and this guy completely ignores it in his analysis. It is more than engineering and design but that is enough to make them undervalued.

One thing that is surprising to me that finance people almost never mention even if it is their domain is how incredibly good Tesla has been with capital allocation. If you sum up the equity put into it from the start and then look at their net assets (including intangibles like brand value and human resources) at this point and then compare that to other automakers it is pretty clear they are many times more efficient. Will this continue at scale? It will as long as Musk is alive but difference might be slightly smaller.

So what happens if you have a company that is way more capital efficient, are better in engineering and design and also don't have the burden of outdated technology and old business structures?


So this is one question I have had. I see $3.4B "additional paid in capital" on the balance sheet. Can I assume this is the total amount investors have given to the company in exchange for shares outstanding? (Initial investors, IPO, Capital raises.)
 
That racket isn't over until Tesla, or someone else, actually builds mass market cars that are better than their competition. There will be over a quarter Billion, with a B, cars sold before Tesla sells a sub 40 thousand dollar car.

For someone on the East coast or in Canada who wants a base Model 3, it could be four years. Also, if nobody is willing to even look at a 20 grand electric car that gets 100 miles; that doesn't speak well for the masses embracing a 40 grand electric that can get 200 miles.

Tesla has amazing marketing and brand awareness; But what is after that? Is it a fad, or a trend?

+1 For the thing about doubting any electric car means doubting Tesla. You're right. It's important to test demand for EVs to monitor how badly consumers have been brainwashed by the Al Gore leftist elite. Obviously not brainwashed enough to overcome low oil prices eh? Just not enough tree huggers to make a real market out of it. Consumer Demand for real cars especially gas guzzlers seems to be stronger than ever! Ford just pulled a recent record 10% net profit year. Tesla's marketing formula is pretty novel it has to be said but the ad agencies are on it and will crack it eventually. No reservations LOL, go Nissan, Goshn's got killer instincts - that"ll make Musk fly off the handle and say something stupid and then it's gotcha and whole corporate welfare boondoggle will just unzip like a banana.

As I hope you can see I understand and place a very high value indeed on your expert opinions.

About $420 per share.

Thank you for posting.
 
I didn't forget anything; My question was if people here doubt that today, thousands of people could be swayed towards a leaf, why in the future millions could be swayed towards a Model 3. For Tesla Stock to grow they will need to sell millions of Model 3's within 5 years of the start of production. If people here doubt non-Tesla electric cars; Than all electric cars come into question.


There is a piece of language in here that is fascinating to me:

"Swayed Towards"

It is like the auto industry has really bought its own BS and confused consumer entrapment with demand.

Consumers are absolutely desperate for a genuine value for money alternative to a soul destroying necessity of life chained to a horrific gas pump!

The real lesson of the Leaf is that some hundreds of thousands of people (not all that bad by consumer marketing survey standards) were so utterly desperate to dump the pump that they were willing to pay arguably four times the value of a comparable Nissan Versa Note - twice on the sticker price and for a car that is objectively half as useful.


Edit - oh rich pickings galore. "Is it a fad"? OMFG and someone actually pays auto executives to go to work and ask each other these things. Let's see, is consumers desiring value for money just a fad? Who shall we call that knows about this stuff - Bob, ever heard of anyone? No mate. Maybe Carlos can do dinner on Tuesday he might have some contacts, give him a some extra drinks and promise him a couple of extra parking spots on our the PGA tour day, maybe he'll share. Sorry Mary - value for money - any ideas maybe some female intuition? Boys are stumped - how long do you think Musk can keep pitching the same old angle to the media before people get bored? We told our agency six moths max between message refresh or the ads don't pull foot traffic any more, he'll learn the hard way - do you give it six months?
 
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So this is one question I have had. I see $3.4B "additional paid in capital" on the balance sheet. Can I assume this is the total amount investors have given to the company in exchange for shares outstanding? (Initial investors, IPO, Capital raises.)

The convertible notes make it a bit more complicated because some of their face values are shown on the balance sheet as paid-in capital rather than debt. There is a helpful reconciliation of the paid in capital account since 12/31/12 on page 50 of the latest 10k.
Tesla Motors - Annual Report

You can go back further by looking at prior years' 10k' s but most of the activity has been since May 2013.
 
That racket isn't over until Tesla, or someone else, actually builds mass market cars that are better than their competition. There will be over a quarter Billion, with a B, cars sold before Tesla sells a sub 40 thousand dollar car.

For someone on the East coast or in Canada who wants a base Model 3, it could be four years. Also, if nobody is willing to even look at a 20 grand electric car that gets 100 miles; that doesn't speak well for the masses embracing a 40 grand electric that can get 200 miles.

Tesla has amazing marketing and brand awareness; But what is after that? Is it a fad, or a trend?

I created this two years ago:

 
There is a market for ICE makers---

marketing tagline:
"Come back to the good-life - Costs more than an EV, but t's ohhh so worth it"


This is I think a reasonable depiction of genuine culture shock.

Most of the most ardent Big Oil and ICE stock investors are about this age and older IMO. These are people have never experienced anything this different their whole lives, and the reaction I suspect will be identical. Naturally there are a lot of very smart and agile-minded 70 and 80+ year olds but "OMG I can't do it". "Hit the brakes" I suspect is going to be more typical than not. Actual real elderly members of my own family in their late 80s and 90s when I was growing up, now deceased, on occasion literally expressed a philosophical preference for death over being part of a technology shift that their upbringing never prepared them for - as though their world in which they belonged and everything in it was passing away and that they ought just go with it rather than attempt to adapt. Sure the video is a bit funny but I think this is just as significant as noting that most 18-24 year olds dream of owning Teslas and not Ferraris that this lady's generation craved - and the difference is that the 18-24 year olds are dreaming of something they can actually buy on a normal salary - and whether they realize it or not yet, all of them will be able to ride in at the touch of a button.

What I see in this lady is mostly excitement. She will adapt - and looking at her I think Autopilot will more than likely save her life at some point if not repeatedly. Also very importantly, when she can no longer drive a car herself at all, Full Autonomy will extend her personal mobility for years and years beyond the time when she would otherwise have been fully dependent for mobility and at very high risk of social exclusion. This can add 20 years to her life and probably lifespan of visiting and making new friends and visiting family when she wants to and not when someone has the time and sympathy to sit with her or drive out to fetch her. This is actually huge.

Welcome the era of 105 year olds hanging on your doorbell. LOL. And a cure for loneliness in old age. Big market and a social good that was unimaginable in the oil and ICE era.


Exciting change in the value of XOM stock is not so easy to adapt to if it comes as a complete shock.

Do you know that Exxon invented and patented away the Lithium Titanium Disulfide battery in the 1970s just to lock down lithium battery technology for 30 years? It wasn't just Chevron buying and mothballing away the Ovshinsky NiMH battery that powered the EV1.

These outrageous EVIL BAST*RDS - 30 unnecessary extra years of human suffering impactiung most especially those that trusted them the most - and still do with their pensions! They can flipping have what's coming to them.

FYI if this is you - for heaven's sake check your pension for ICE and Oil stock exposure. Divestment is no longer philosophical for tree-huggers only. It is a genuine personal financial security necessity. There will be nobody to backstop a collapse in oil, it will take stocks like XOM and the banks that are over-exposed also, and the government bonds backing the banks. What you may think is a Blue Chip is in fact a financial death trap - well within ten years from now. You can ignore me and that is your right and priveledge but on my conscience I cannot stay silent about this. I thought this was just about young and vulnerable vs the old and cynical but I just realized that it isn't. It's about the old and vulnerable too.
 
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The way I've always looked at the situation in very different light.

I believed that it is our duty as their children and grandchildren to show them the joy that is an EV before they pass on. It's more of a: "Look dad, this is what our generation is doing. isn't it fun?"

You cannot carry your wealth to the afterlife. Enjoy as much fun as you can in an EV safely driven by an AI while screaming your heart out going to 60mph in 2.3 seconds.
 
Review of my Model X, Tesla and the Car Industry

Some of you may have seen this on Twitter, but I thought it would be an insightful read that relates to TSLA both in the short and long term.

IMO Model X delays and production problems are the only thing holding the stock back in the short-term. There's currently serious speculation that MX has fundamental issues that need to be changed, but this review shows that that's not the case, but rather that each of the early MXs are a case by case basis and that Tesla definitely has the ability to deliver a perfect Model X, arguably the most advanced car in the world. History repeats itself (initial MS problems) and I have strong confidence that by year's end every customer will be as happy as this guy.

The post also gives insight into how cars will change more in the next 10 years than in the last 100 years combined, specifically through 4 areas. Tesla has huge and significant competitive advantages in at least 3, if not all 4, of these areas (ride-sharing probably too early to tell). Understanding these changes is key to building a long-term thesis for the company and justifying its current and potential future valuation.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: EinSV and Runarbt
I created this two years ago:
This is a parody of the rant scene in the German film "Downfall". It now involves Tesla Motors Supercharger stations surrounding Berlin as electric cars replace those with internal combustion engines.
Thanks Curt! Hilarious.

This one is funny too:
Hitler's Short Position in Tesla is Ruined
 
I didn't forget anything; My question was if people here doubt that today, thousands of people could be swayed towards a leaf, why in the future millions could be swayed towards a Model 3.
Well, we don't seem to live in a world where people need to be "swayed" to get a Tesla, do we. For whatever inscrutable reasons, almost half a million people just provided Tesla with an interest-free loan of almost half a billion dollars in less than a month. I'm going out on a limb here, but it's almost as if they believe Tesla will build them a better car than what's available elsewhere today or for the foreseeable future, notwithstanding our doubts in the Leaf's prospects.

If people here doubt non-Tesla electric cars; Than all electric cars come into question.
It's not people here who doubt non-Tesla electric cars. It's people over there, who decided to stand in line for hours and drop $1000 for the privilege of waiting over 2 years for a car they hadn't even seen, rather than visit a Nissan dealer right now and drive away in a brand-new Leaf.

Non-Tesla electric cars suck. Tesla cars are electric. Ergo, Tesla cars suck. If you believe this "argument", I hope you're the guy who sold the TSLA calls in my portfolio.
 
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Tesla has amazing marketing and brand awareness

Yeah, they have amazing marketing and brand awareness, on which they spent zero dollars. Because what Tesla also has is the only production electric car capable of going more than 300 miles on a single charge (heck, even 150 miles, for that matter), with better acceleration than a Ferrari and more space than every other large sedan. And more than 100 thousand of them are on the road as we speak.

It's the other car manufacturers who only have marketing and brand awareness to fall back on. They are the ones who must spend millions on advertising in order to push their inferior electric cars because they can't build compelling ones and stay in business, while Tesla is hard at work to do what they've already been doing for years, only better and faster, spending money loaned to them at no cost by people who crave their products not because of Tesla's marketing, but because of the incontrollable lust they feel every time they see a Model S on the street.

That's not marketing. That's having a product that sells itself, the wet dream of every other car CEO out there.

But what is after that? Is it a fad, or a trend?
What does it look like to you?
 
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