Some shorts thinking it won't go lower and some longs thinking it won't go lower. What's the difference?
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Some shorts thinking it won't go lower and some longs thinking it won't go lower. What's the difference?
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The short-term trading perspective is definitely very different than the long-term investing perspective.
Unfortunately, the short term thread draws in people of all types, because it is kind of a "catch all" for the day's news, both share price related and company related. I don't know about the rest of the long-term investors here, but I rarely go into the Trading Strategies thread because I just am not interested in Trading Strategies. I figure that's the true "short term" thread, but I could be wrong about that.
Krugerrand
Meow
It's not futile. I'm asking because I genuinely am curious and want to know. (And I can't be offended by a stranger on an Internet forum - you don't have that power - so I'm fine with whatever you say and however you say it, no need to apologize/run a disclaimer/etc...)
The last sentence *here* was all I needed to understand why you're doing it. Thanks for taking the time to answer my questions. I now have an entirely different view on your postings in this thread and can ponder accordingly.
mmd
Active Member
Wonder what makes you ask this.
To experienced investors/traders: Has there been any other stock in the past, that was as heavily shorted as TSLA for such a long time? Sometimes I wonder, if any technical analysis works for such heavily shorted stock.
The irony of your question is quite remarkable. The answer is that there is very likely no investor/trader old enough to have lived in times when great companies were new and incredulous to the world order of the day. You would have to be looking at the formative years of Edison, Bell, Ford, Carnegie, Rokefeller, Koch, GM. Of these GM is the only one that I am aware of that was actually public relatively early on. Ford for example went public nine years after the death of Henry Ford.
chickensevil
Active Member
Very rarely does a company in general go public this early on. It has been stated before but we have been given a rare opportunity as a retail investor to get in so early. And yes, I still believe that while it isn't as great an opportunity as it was 2-3 years ago, it is still early. I think the ship will have sailed on the early boat before 2020.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I dunno
my only point was that I agree with the OP that the EOD run up was due to short covering.
jesselivenomore
Member
What I plan on doing with my own position has little to do with my posts here today. I mentioned it in passing, and explained it further since you asked.
My initial post today and all the ones following were to caution of the risks in the general market currently. I did this because some were goading others into going "go in" and presented it as a "sure thing" or "can't lose".
I felt it was irresponsible not to also present people with the real risks in the market and economy today. It is fine if someone wants to go "all in" as long as they understand the risks and balance it with the reward. Then at least they can take responsibility for their actions. Also note that a "risk" is a probability, not a certainty. Another concept that garnered resistance which I had to explain.
This was the first post I read in the morning yesterday:
This is very saddening, especially if you read his recent post history. TSLA was up nearly 10% in 2015. Even if you bought the all time high, it is still down less than 30%, and up hundreds of % over the past few years. There is no reason for something like this to happen to someone if they had simply managed their RISK properly and conserved their capital instead of only looking for reward.
I do not wish to see this for anyone else here. We are all fans of Tesla the company.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Not a haiku
From the sky it fell
See how people curse the sun
A falcon wing shrugs -- it flies
From the sky it fell
See how people curse the sun
A falcon wing shrugs -- it flies
As a long term investor, I do use this thread to try to time the dips to add to my long position. Seeing investors that were sitting on the sidelines just a couple of weeks ago go all in this week has helped my confidence. Added 500 shares at the open this morning (went below my 200 trigger). I want to thank the ultra bulls like Julian, and the believers that are more skeptical, like maoing and jesselivenomore. I hope that we are reaching the bottom, and that the fears of Jesse aren't realized. Luckily, I do have the ability to wait it out if we are headed into a recession, but I would still be much happier to see 260 again sooner rather than later! 
jhm
Well-Known Member
Oil Prices Plunge 5% As Traders Fear A Wave Of Iranian Oil | OilPrice.com
For those concerned about the oil glut, it is good to understand the impact of the return of Iranian oil. Iran has been under sanctions preventing the country from selling oil. In the meantime, the present glut is a surplus if about 1 million barrels per day. Sanctions could be lifted so, and Iran is expected to begin selling 500,000 barrels per day immediate and ramp up over the course of the year to 1 million barrels per day. Thus, the surplus can climb from 1 million to 2 million per day this year minus declines in production.
Not that since 2014 $380B in projects worth 27 billion barrels have been cancel. Cancelling these projects should allow production to miss out on 2.9 million barrels per day in five years or so. This is a bit overshoot to manage the 2 million barrels per day surplus, but time will tell if it was a big enough pull back.
So my outlook is that the oil price will not recover this year. While demand is soft, I tend to see this glut as being supply driven. Certainly, the shock soon coming from Iran has nothing to do with demand weakness. It is said that the cure for low prices is low prices. Investments in new oil supply is sharply down, and the global economic will find uses for cheap oil. I am suspicious of voices urging recessionary fear based on the falling price of oil. Low prices is how the market clears a glut, and it will take a year or two.
Likewise for Tesla, the cure for low stock prices is low stock prices. Strong hands wait for these low prices and are buying up shares. I bought shares the last time the price was below $200. So I've got plenty, but if the price does drop substantially lower I will buy. As shares find their way into strong hands the price will climb again.
For those concerned about the oil glut, it is good to understand the impact of the return of Iranian oil. Iran has been under sanctions preventing the country from selling oil. In the meantime, the present glut is a surplus if about 1 million barrels per day. Sanctions could be lifted so, and Iran is expected to begin selling 500,000 barrels per day immediate and ramp up over the course of the year to 1 million barrels per day. Thus, the surplus can climb from 1 million to 2 million per day this year minus declines in production.
Not that since 2014 $380B in projects worth 27 billion barrels have been cancel. Cancelling these projects should allow production to miss out on 2.9 million barrels per day in five years or so. This is a bit overshoot to manage the 2 million barrels per day surplus, but time will tell if it was a big enough pull back.
So my outlook is that the oil price will not recover this year. While demand is soft, I tend to see this glut as being supply driven. Certainly, the shock soon coming from Iran has nothing to do with demand weakness. It is said that the cure for low prices is low prices. Investments in new oil supply is sharply down, and the global economic will find uses for cheap oil. I am suspicious of voices urging recessionary fear based on the falling price of oil. Low prices is how the market clears a glut, and it will take a year or two.
Likewise for Tesla, the cure for low stock prices is low stock prices. Strong hands wait for these low prices and are buying up shares. I bought shares the last time the price was below $200. So I've got plenty, but if the price does drop substantially lower I will buy. As shares find their way into strong hands the price will climb again.
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Krugerrand
Meow
I think there's more to the story. There was mention of personal struggle. And the financial struggle may not have been directly or entirely referencing TSLA stock price, but rather the last straw. It sounded to me like he simply reached his limit mentally and emotionally about life in general. Even if he could have protected his TSLA investment, doesn't mean he wouldn't be in the same position. Sometimes poo happens regardless of how well we plan to protect ourselves or otherwise. We don't have all the details, but yes, it's sad and unfortunate, and hopefully he'll be able to sort things out in time.
And then we have someone like Elon Musk who stands on the opposite side, puts everything on the line, and simply refuses to give up. Elon didn't protect himself.
The middle ground I think is what you're going for for other (most?) people, and that will work for a lot of them. On this forum, though, we have a lot of higher risk takers. Those who spent a handsome chunk of money for a vehicle full of new technology, from a start up company in a sector that hadn't seen a successful new entrant in many decades, with no dealership network, fighting several powerful state politicians and specific interest groups, etc... Many bought shares of Tesla at the IPO or shortly thereafter, also a very risky move. Point being, you might be mostly preaching to the choir here. Nonetheless a reminder is always nice.
jesselivenomore
Member
This is not the intent of my posts. There is nothing wrong with taking risks. There is nothing wrong with going "all in". There is certainly nothing wrong with buying TSLA this week, as I've stated multiple times. (I bought it myself for a trade Thursday and posted when I did so)
My reply was directed at someone who was describing TSLA's improving fundamentals(which I agree with!) to justify why it is a "no brainer" to go all in at current prices. I am simply saying that the macro markets are in charge now, and despite TSLA's continued growth and improving balance sheet, it can still be adversely affected in a potential macro downturn.
Some people already know this. They may acknowledge the risks in the economy, but simply believe they will abate, therefore they are going "all in". This is perfectly fine.
Others may take the poster I was responding to at his word, and believe TSLA will go up no matter what because its fundamentals are improving. Going "all in" based on this premise, one may be dismayed in the event of a general market downturn, and find TSLA's share price trading significantly lower while its business has grown. For those people, I am simply posting to let them know of this possibility. Not that it will happen, but simply that it is possible. That's all.
This is the my last post explaining my own posts. Let's move on.
chickensevil
Active Member
While gasoline isn't the only use for oil, to your point about increased demand, this is already getting observed by short sighted individuals buying up gas guzzlers and such. I'm sure more people while choose to go on road trips as well, especially once winter is over.
Krugerrand
Meow
Ah, so what is repeated here all the time; the unicorn may or may not leave the barn in the short term, who's to say, we don't know, it's all a guess. Got it. :wink: (Still, thank you for the discussion.)
Panasonic ups ante in Tesla gigafactory investment
This news is more than a week ago. But I just want to point out that even Tesla's partner Panasonic has concern about Tesla demand until it proves to be exponential growth which is unlikely till model 3. Without exponential growth (50% YoY is NOT) as in 2013, it's very hard to justify the TSLA valuation in 2014 & 2015. So we see SP trading in a range mainly depends on news. I do see possibility that TSLA break out this range due to a serial of positive catalysts anticipation in 2016. But most likely SP will fade again if there is no exponential demand growth to follow, in order to meet 500K goal by 2020 which implies 10X demand in next 5 years.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I have some familiarity in dealing with companies like Panasonic (specifically Asian battery suppliers). They are very happy to believe in a bright future around the dinner table but what they do when they are back in the office is based on credible purchase orders.
Luckily Tesla has the answer to this. A business model based on customer reservations, which is supported by making products people are happy to reserve and wait for because there is nothing else like it available from any competitor. It will be no problem for Tesla to convince Panasonic that it needs batteries for 500,000 vehicles if it starts collecting 500,000 deposited Model 3 reservations per month starting this April (or even 100,000 reservations per month). Hard to imagine it will be much less than that unless Tesla asks for a deposit representing pre-payment for the entire car.
The second part of Tesla's answer to it is to bring battery production under their own roof and capital structure long before vehicle competition moves on from deep first mover advantage in making the only EV products capable of genuinely satisfying consumers to more mundane competitive battlegrounds like purchasing convenience.
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