Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[EinSV]

A couple of weeks ago I would have said the same thing. But what if... Revealing the Y is the perfect way to "tame" M3 demand. If they show a Design Concept or Beta version of Y, announce production to, say, 2019 and allow M3 reservation holders to convert to Y for free, they could shift some of the (by that time 500k+) demand to 2019.

I agree that something along the lines of what you are suggesting is likely to happen.

Announcing the Y before the Model 3 is officially launched solves quite a few problems for Tesla. They have more demand than they can handle for the 3, and they want to ramp up to a total of 1M vehicles by 2020. It would be helpful to have some sense of the demand for the Y to plan production to reach the 1M vehicle goal and maximize total sales between now and 2020.

Assuming they stagger production so that the Y is released 12-18 months after the 3 launches, it seems logical and manageable from a production standpoint to have the Y reveal sometime before the 3 is launched. The design of the 3 will be finalized in about a month, which gives Tesla lots of time to fine-tune the Y design to maximize sharing of parts and optimize it for ease of production, at the same time they work out the kinks in Model 3 production.

IMO, the biggest hurdle to moving forward with the Y on something like the timetable you suggest are the financial markets, which are more conservative than Elon. They did not exactly give a standing ovation to the Model 3 production acceleration announcement (mistakenly, IMO). But there is a lot that can happen in the next 12 months or so that could make the market calm down and become a little more receptive to what seems to me is a logical next phase in Tesla's growth strategy.

I don't think cannibalization of Model 3 orders is a real concern given the number of pre-orders that have already been placed for the Model 3. Yes, some people would rather have a CUV than a sedan (personally, I wouldn't mind one 3 and one Y), but 400K+ reservations now could easily translate into 750K-1M pre-orders or more by the time of the Model 3 launch. They have more pre-orders than they can handle. The trick is figuring out how to expand production and infrastructure as fast as possible, while doing their best to ensure fantastic products and a smooth launch. The new planning geniuses they've hired hopefully can work out the details.

 

[Curt Renz]

A little weekend OT.

Has this Britishism been accepted in American English now?

I have read several articles from US based websites/magazines and heard several Americans online,on tv, and in real life talk about "queueing."

I like it by the way. Much more elegant than "getting in line" or "waiting in line."

Indeed. I'm an older American and have used "queue" interchangeably with (standing in) "line" most of my life. Queue is used in computerspeak as an alternative to the accounting term FIFO, both implying "first in - first out". Queue more precisely describes the dynamics of the situation than does line. I would welcome it becoming predominant in American English. Now we just need to shorten the spelling.

 

[hoang51]

He tweeted there will be no Signature Editions. And I guess no Signature Red.

Didn't say anything about Founders Editions.

Would be cool if the employees get a Makers Edition badge though.

Thanks for the correction. It was the Signatures that he was referring to. I mistaken it for the Founders. Here's the link in case someone is looking for it: Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[kenliles]

A little weekend OT.

Has this Britishism been accepted in American English now?

I have read several articles from US based websites/magazines and heard several Americans online,on tv, and in real life talk about "queueing."

I like it by the way. Much more elegant than "getting in line" or "waiting in line."

British Q to me

 

[steve3]

Interesting news from Mobileye recently.

Fully self-driving cars in 2019? Mobileye strikes deal with car makers

"Mobileye co-founder, CTO and Chairman Amnon Shashua said two companies are “fully committed” to autonomous vehicles in three years....Mobileye has secured agreements with two auto makers to provide systems for fully autonomous cars in 2019, deals that give a clearer timetable for when auto makers believe they can start producing vehicles entirely capable of driving themselves. While there are many Silicon Valley companies, including Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG, -0.35%GOOGL, -0.45% , racing to develop autonomous-vehicle technology,..."

When this article first came out last Thursday, I remember it specifically said the inked deals were with two unnamed "Silicon Valley companies", now edited to say two auto makers (with a remnant reference to Silicon Valley left in). Has to be TM and Google's consortium, right? Unless they count Apple among automakers.

On the recent CC, Elon didn't invite ongoing discussion about fully autonomous-ness, responding something to the effect that TM isn't looking to remove the option of human driving. But this news from Mobileye would seem to confirm that Elon's quietly keeping the fully autonomous petal to the (2019) metal.

 

[mmd]

Did not see this posted here. This article on a lawsuit on foreign labor related issues at a Tesla's contractor was printed in today's San Jose Mercury News in a big way.
The Hidden Workforce Expanding Tesla's Factory

 

[mrdoubleb]

This is an interesting point. But still I think it may do more harm than good. Not only they need to squeeze the RND of Model Y into the heavily burdened balance sheet for expanding production of Model 3, but also their "growth team" would re-work what they've done with the Model 3 growth curves. A very bad situation might be Tesla did manage to expand to 500k/year rate in 2018, but due to the divergent of Model Y demand, it can only get 300k/year demand from Model 3/S/X. That would be pretty ugly.

I agree that something along the lines of what you are suggesting is likely to happen.

Announcing the Y before the Model 3 is officially launched solves quite a few problems for Tesla. They have more demand than they can handle for the 3, and they want to ramp up to a total of 1M vehicles by 2020. It would be helpful to have some sense of the demand for the Y to plan production to reach the 1M vehicle goal and maximize total sales between now and 2020.

Assuming they stagger production so that the Y is released 12-18 months after the 3 launches, it seems logical and manageable from a production standpoint to have the Y reveal sometime before the 3 is launched. The design of the 3 will be finalized in about a month, which gives Tesla lots of time to fine-tune the Y design to maximize sharing of parts and optimize it for ease of production, at the same time they work out the kinks in Model 3 production.

IMO, the biggest hurdle to moving forward with the Y on something like the timetable you suggest are the financial markets, which are more conservative than Elon. They did not exactly give a standing ovation to the Model 3 production acceleration announcement (mistakenly, IMO). But there is a lot that can happen in the next 12 months or so that could make the market calm down and become a little more receptive to what seems to me is a logical next phase in Tesla's growth strategy.

I don't think cannibalization of Model 3 orders is a real concern given the number of pre-orders that have already been placed for the Model 3. Yes, some people would rather have a CUV than a sedan (personally, I wouldn't mind one 3 and one Y), but 400K+ reservations now could easily translate into 750K-1M pre-orders or more by the time of the Model 3 launch. They have more pre-orders than they can handle. The trick is figuring out how to expand production and infrastructure as fast as possible, while doing their best to ensure fantastic products and a smooth launch. The new planning geniuses they've hired hopefully can work out the details.

Ok, just to clarify, this was my crazy, weekend, kinda off topic idea, I did not mean to imply this is what I think will happen, but would not be too shocked if it did. I have this feeling from a couple of half finished sentences from Musk & Co throughout the past years, that the 3 and the Y were jointly developed and the Y may be further along the way than we'd think. In fact, I would bet, that a lot of the Y R&D has already been done as part of the Bluestar program.

What I find even crazier than my own comment on an early Y introduction, is Elon alluding to the Y having FWD. Now on the one hand, it would make financial sense to amortize the FWD development costs on a larger volume product, on the other hand they will think long and hard about trying to manufacture those things in such volume. In fact, if those thoughts came from someone on these forums, rather than Musk himself, I would be among those commenting on how crazy the forum member is. Then again, when did Musk shy away from crazy?

Anyway, my main point was more along the lines of this: even with the amped up production plans, Tesla will have more 3 demand on their hand, than they can handle in time. One way to ensure these reservations don't go to other manufacturers if the wait is too long, would be to reveal other members of the Bluestar family and try and shift demand to later years.

Sunday morning 6am rant over.

 

[DaveT]

On a side note, wait time for service in San Diego is 3 weeks. And I have friends complaining on long service times at other service centers (although not as long as San Diego). I don't understand how Tesla is going to handle servicing Model 3 when they're having a difficult time right now.

 

[Lump]

Van Nuys is a month, I stopped by the other day to show them my data connection problem that I have had for close to a year & there isn't even room to park, Tesla employee parked my car in the handicapped spot.

 

[schonelucht]

I don't understand how Tesla is going to handle servicing Model 3 when they're having a difficult time right now.

OpEx expenditures will have to rise sooner rather than later to handle the big rise, yet it's mainly pushed out to 2017 according to the guidance given. In the end, I feel something will have to give.

 

[AudubonB]

Indeed. I'm an older American and have used "queue"... Now we just need to shorten the spelling.

Horrors! Never shorten the spelling. "Queueing" is one of a lamentably short number of English language words containing five consecutive vowels.

"Hawaiian" has 6, for a given definition of vowel - Polynesian languages are wonderfully set up for vogalization, but little of their vocabulary has made it incontrovertibly into standard English.

Ain't weekends great for going off topic?

 

[techmaven]

So yeah, it would be really nice if TSLA stock price went up this week... the more the merrier. Who's going to help me out? A few ten's of thousands of shares bought at market price through the morning tomorrow would be most appreciated. Thanks in advance.

 

[Lump]

Van Nuys service center, I would say its long outgrown its capacity & could use some touch paint.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Sunday morning 6am rant over.

Lol, ok EDIT button is gone, but just so you don't all think I am in a time-space bubble, it is, of course, Monday morning, it just happens to be a holiday (Whit Monday) and it felt like Sunday...

 

[Papafox]

It's been a busy weekend for Model X deliveries from California to Georgia.
Model X May Deliveries

Looks like they're rolling out of the factory at a fast clip now and with minimal issues (except for the missing sunshades, which will be delivered later). Cheers to rdalcanto this weekend, too!

 

[JBRR]

On a side note, wait time for service in San Diego is 3 weeks. And I have friends complaining on long service times at other service centers (although not as long as San Diego). I don't understand how Tesla is going to handle servicing Model 3 when they're having a difficult time right now.

What is average wait time for service on cars in comparable segments?

Service center in Copenhagen, Denmark have a 3 week wait as well. (A unproportionate ratio of cars to service centers was sold in December because of tax changes though). I suspect that a lot of the wait time can be attributed to lag in delivery of spare parts. A problem that should diminish as supplier and inhouse production scale.

I expect a much lower ratio of service pr car for the model 3 given that is built with ease of manufacturing in mind. Maybe 1/4th of Model S service needs?

 

[mrdoubleb]

I suspect that a lot of the wait time can be attributed to lag in delivery of spare parts. A problem that should diminish as supplier and inhouse production scale.

And may also depend on your location and where that spare part is sourced from, e.g. German supplier vs. American supplier vs. your (car's) location. So wait time may be different from part to part and influenced by local stock levels...

Back on topic, I suppose the NYSE will be open today, right? I expect many European ones to be closed for the holiday.

 

[Cobos]

What is average wait time for service on cars in comparable segments?

Service center in Copenhagen, Denmark have a 3 week wait as well. (A unproportionate ratio of cars to service centers was sold in December because of tax changes though). I suspect that a lot of the wait time can be attributed to lag in delivery of spare parts. A problem that should diminish as supplier and inhouse production scale.

I expect a much lower ratio of service pr car for the model 3 given that is built with ease of manufacturing in mind. Maybe 1/4th of Model S service needs?

Not saying the Model 3 will have to spend a lot of time in the service department but they NEED to clear the queues in Norway before they start selling the 3. We still have between 3-6 months wait time for non-critical service. And that's with no Model X delivered yet, only Roadsters and Model S.

Cobos

 

[Causalien]

Some interesting observation in other forums.

There are people defending TSLA now. The attitude towards anything green or anything Elon have turned positive and these are from people who doesn't have a tech background and are not millenials.

It feels weird as I used to be the only one defending and everyone will be trashing Elon/TSLA.

I believe a shift of sentiment has occurred.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Unusually wide pre-market Bid - Ask spread today: $206.89 - $212.35...