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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yeah. Been stuck around 2010 consolidation. I'll go check the technicals. Guessing we are still in oversold condition after trading down from 250... Stochastics
Like the difference between billiards and pool.Indeed. I'm an older American and have used "queue" interchangeably with (standing in) "line" most of my life. Queue is used in computerspeak as an alternative to the accounting term FIFO, both implying "first in - first out". Queue more precisely describes the dynamics of the situation than does line. I would welcome it becoming predominant in American English. Now we just need to shorten the spelling.
Yes, I believe if we had broader market support last week, one of the attempted breakouts could have gone higher. Now TSLA is in a funk and needs a catalyst to boost it up. Most investors are unaware of the Model X progress (which in turn means a good Q2), and we're waiting to hear about Tesla's strategy for funding the Model 3 ludicrous expansion. Members of this forum know that both are coming, but the market has it's Missouri hat on and is saying, "Show me."
The stock was completely stuck at this level in last 2~3 years. With not many catalysts coming in next few quarters (other than delivery numbers assuming Tesla outperforms, which they never did in last couple of years), I don't think this thing going anywhere until they can show Model 3 can be produced as what EM has bragged, say volume can be in tens of thousands in 2H 2017.
Are we really sure there won't be many catalysts in the next few quarters? Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but I could see several big ones happening over the summer. My hunch is that just doing some of the capital raises for model 3 could assuage some of the concerns over it.
There are two main worries; one is can they pay for it, and two is can they actually do it well and on time.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Very oversold on a daily chart and oversold intraday
Unless macros turn south today, I think we will see a bounce higher
Contrast this, the timing, etc., with GM on the ignition switch fiasco. I know, apples and oranges, but....
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Ummm yeah! Right off the bat a capital raise could happen at anytime per CC.
That alone will likely send TSLA higher as it derisks tesla's ability to complete initial M3 production scale up. Scary for short positions right now, since this cap raise event is likely to gap the SP when it occurs.
It way underperformed Nasdaq intraday even at such a low price after recent selloff, just doesn't look good to me.
So here's the question in my mind. Assuming they do a raise and it is a slight "down" round, does assuaging the model 3 concerns outweigh the dilution or not?
If I remember right last year was pretty boring, and as they get bigger they seem to be more tight-lipped. But then again they don't pay for advertising, and shareholder's meetings get lot's of free press.
For catalyst timing, we should see on July1-3 better-than-guidance Q2 delivery numbers and Tesla could hint at these being good at May30 annual meeting, if they wish. If Tesla plans on borrowing first stage of expansion money, that should happen soon, but if it plans an equity raise they will likely want a higher SP first, and they'll get that should Tesla let the cat out of the bag and show a likelihood of Q2 profitability.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
? Earlier at 212-213 today we were OUT performing naz. 2% up then.
Here come that bounce right now... Perfect setup
BTW, MM just doesn't take 2018 500k deliveries (30B in revevue) seriously at all. Assuming they can do it, a P/S ratio of 3 will make Tesla a 90B company. Even they just can deliver 300K vehicles, (20B in revenue), the stock price should double by end of 2018.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure, but they lose money on every vehicle they build
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