Agreed, dude constantly re writes history to suit some self aggrandizrd version of himself then had the audacity to tell people calling him out on it that they are out of line.
Julian has made several good calls on the price action (though honestly, the run up from Feb want wasn't exactly rocket science, the whole board was pointing out how absurd the downswing was), and he has made some bad calls as well. That's fine, but pretending he hasn't, or hand waving it away with "unforseen circumstances" is disingenuous. If there weren't unforseen circumstances we would all be able to predict price like, 99% of the time, those are the whole point.
I'm a bit disturbed that our friendly mod (doing a great job generally btw) seems unconcerned about that and has often shown desire to sort of protect Julian on this.
Anyway, this has all be rehashed to hell and back. Julian over represents his perfection, people point out he isn't perfect (which is absolutely fine mind you, no one is perfect) and Julian shoots back a nuh-uh I am prefect. None of it matters really.
First of all thank you to the posters that have expressed some appreciation. Thank you very much.
@Irishjugg
You are one of my favourite contributors, one of those that in my opinion talks the most sense.
What I see you admonishing me to do here is to lie about recorded facts make myself look better.
I am not sure what you expect in response. I take it as a moral imperative to tell the truth here to the same or similar standard as the imperative to disclose whether or not I have left the brake lines hanging off a strangers car or not.
If you ask me whether or not I am infallible I will say no I am human. If you ask me whether or not I have secured the brake lines on a car, and I have, I need to say yes I have. If you keep asking and accusing I still cannot change my answer. The answer is still yes. You say that's unbelievable, I still need to say yes. You accuse me of fraud, I need to say, please don't do that because the answer is yes. You tell me that you are dead certain that I left the brake lines hanging off your car. I need to say, no I didn't - here is the photo of me securing the brake lines and the written and date stamped certification that I did it.
At some point if you keep claiming in public that I left the brake lines hanging off your car I need to explain that you are the one misleading people. Does that make sense?
I suspect the problem here is that you think I am claiming infallibility for all future predictions. All I can promise you is this. If I ever volunteer again to check the brakes on your car I will apply the same diligence as I have done previously, record the job and supply the proof so that again you cannot in any world that values honesty above lies - claim that I haven't done it. Will it be a good job? Only time can tell for sure, but when time has told for sure, in my world that needs to be the end of the debate. Not the beginning of a hail of accusations.
Now. I very charitably (audaciously) tried to save decent people from losing their shirts on the Jan-mid Feb down leg and sought to head off a sentiment death spiral on TMC. I can understand why someone may be confused that what I was doing instead was to be bullish in a bear environment. Not true, but I understand.
From then onwards there is no excuse to call my record into question. If you do so you will be arguing with the unarguable truth, in my world arguing with the truth is either confusion or lies or the product of third party deception. When there is no excuse for confusion it is called lies. Plain and simple. For example, if you claim I made a bad call, you would be lying given this strict definition of truth and lies. Sorry, that is just the way it is
Some have suggested it is dangerous to tell the truth in this manner because what if people were to trust the truth!? Let's examine that:
So I specificly shared on TMC a long sequence of calls - let's say from anticipating Q4 ER onwards so nobody can bicker about anything. Those calls went all the way up from $143 to $255 and all the way down again to $211 and from May 19th all the way up again to $223. Lots of data points in between all of them reinforcing the stated direction and the reason why. Some of them very ardently admonishing deviation - basically slammed some people for trying to encourage buying the Q1 ER and the disclosure of the $190 per KWh. These were bear calls. I also admonished against seeking a buy on the dip following the M3 unveil stating very clearly that the would be no dip relative to the preceding trading day.
Kindly ask yourself. If you discredited any of the above, who would you have been helping? Which side of right or wrong would you be on? How safe or dangerous do you think it is scream no it can't be true, stop lying, grow up, how dare you etc etc when we are talking about money - and it is all true. The opposite of the truth in investing is called losses. Real people losing real money. People I happen to care about that are wiling to invest in talking action to create a better world rather than to sell the future of our children downriver for just one more barrel of crude.
I cannot understand why a successful attempt to help in this environment should be pilloried. I care about the future of humanity - at least those who like me have an idea that our collective young deserve better than to inherit a world in flames - I assume that includes you and any of my remaining critics here, and so for you if it isn't for the truth and for humanity whose side are you on and why do you imagine it makes sense to side with the enemy - of lies and of the financial destruction of decent people like you??
So then if you say, well well well. "I don't trade with your style or with your timing so with my timing I agreed with this call and then you changed it which makes you wrong". Like what the heck? That isn't me cherry picking my calls. That's you cherry picking my calls. I just said which way the stock would go. How you traded it or selectively ignored it or disagreed with it at the time and therefore the stock went somewhere other than what you expected or where I said it will go (honestly that was and remains to this day the same thing) is entirely up to you.
Will I always be right for as long as I keep trying to get it right?
No idea! Too early to tell and that is just the truth of it.
Like you I can only assume the answer will eventually be no. Catastrophically so, I really hope not but I can tell you this and you can check into it yourself, this isn't flipping coins or guesswork. This is hard core analysis that so far seems to work.
As for EV Volumes. This isn't me selling a book! This is an opportunity for me (actually us when inclusive of the remainder of the team and anyone that gives a sh*t about the future) to present reliable forecasting data and analysis to the auto industry that auto industry experts cannot for the life of them provide. The needless destruction that this can potentially save is off the charts. What do you imagine might occur if it were possible to demonstrate to VW or Toyota that "modular architecture" (the multi $billion product of confusion which way the auto market will go), this and another 20 years of haplessly trying to defend ICE sales was unnecessary and contrary to the fiduciary duty of auto executives and instead the way to deal with the future wast to license a Tesla product design asap and invest in a Gigafactory? Think that is something you are duty bound to discredit? I don't think so!
Julian Cox.
, Inside EVs estimate of US numbers (especially Model X) for May coming out next week, their own report on Q2 deliveries early July, and a potential announcement of a partner in China before Q2 ER (I heard a few rumors going on, but nothing concrete enough to share here). Short term, real volume deliveries of Model X is a big catalysts, as it helps financials and boost confidence in their execution (or rather, alleviate the constant doubt)
