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SebastianR
Active Member
I would say that's too soon to tell. But I think if you have >450 people who are payrolled by FF that means there are >450 people who are gonna be vocal about electric mobility in future. I'm not saying that's a lot (it isn't) but every person counts... In Germany, I think there are tons of people who are really skeptical about EVs for the sole reason that they are working close to a legacy EV maker. With growth of the industry, perceptions will change. 20 years ago, renewable Energy was just for "hippies" in Germany. Nowadays, tons of "regular people" work in the field thus renewables are regarded as "just another industry competing for market share" which is healthy and good. So the more people work in electric car making, the better.
Scott Ales
Member
It's actually quite bizarre.
Everything EM and Tesla set out to prove and inspire is happening. Yet the SP is falling.
Even though all other currently offered production EV vehicles are struggling. And the only thing all competitors inside and outside the automotive market are releasing daily are plan and headlines. But still no real competition that I would EVER consider against the car in my garage.
Weird really.
Everything EM and Tesla set out to prove and inspire is happening. Yet the SP is falling.
Even though all other currently offered production EV vehicles are struggling. And the only thing all competitors inside and outside the automotive market are releasing daily are plan and headlines. But still no real competition that I would EVER consider against the car in my garage.
Weird really.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I think we have entered a full blown bear market. You need TSLA to be one of the handful of stocks that could perform this year.
Data point: average selling price of cars/trucks/SUVs in the U.S. in record-breaking 2015 was ~ $35,500 (paraphrase of various articles). So millions of units at $45k+, the likely entry pricing of Model 3.
More rebates and lower margins? Okay, the competition can go ahead and do that... but they aren't going to run this at a gross loss. The whole point is to make a sustainable EV future that presents a profitable business case which is the whole point of the Gigafactory. Even if Tesla was tardy for the party in releasing model 3, the vehicle will be more compelling based on the sheer technology advantage of the software.
In addition, there's still going to be a huge conflict of interest on the sales outlet end for large automakers. On the flip side, those who aren't as price sensitive won't go to a GM because... it's a GM but will go to Tesla.
Since LG Chem alone has 10-12 large car customers how do you know that there will be a disadvantage in terms of costs compared to the Gigafactory?
Would you take a bet that all of LG Chem's / Samsung SDI's customers will consume/order less cells/batteries than Tesla in 10 years?
I wouldn't.
Looking at early specs, the GM Bolt looks like a winner:
Where's Tesla advantage (especially in the Model3 space) when most other large car makers will release similarly specced EVs in all form factors and priced around $30-50k by 2020?
If people answer "Supercharging". Tesla spent little on their network so far. Large car companies and/or their charging partners can duplicate that network globally within 24-36 months as well.
Exactly my point. You just replaced 2020 with 2025.
Honda Fit US Sales = 59k in 2014
Chevy Sonic Sales = 93k in 2014
BMW 3 series US Sales = 142k in 2014
The Model 3 competes in a better segment than the Bolt simply because of customer preference of car type.
The thing is, this is such a "trendy" meme right now on the street and it strikes me that it is more "reporting after the fact," and I see no legitimate economic reason other than the usual suspects of nebulous global instability fears, oil, etc. etc. Same thing happened last year -- when the mainstream news starts blabbing about bear markets, that has sometimes signaled a bottom. When the news starts saying everything is rosy and better buy the top before you miss out, that's often the time to sell.
Money chases yield, i.e. investors seek returns. With rates still effectively at zero and global markets in turmoil, where are you going to put your money in 2016 to generate returns other than US equities?
So I'm not cashing out yet. In fact I'm dollar cost averaging across a wide variety of stocks.
As for TSLA, I think nearly all of the last 5 pages in this thread belongs in the long-term thread, as debates about how Model 3 will dominate and change the game belong there (yes, it really will by the way and no, there is no credible competition). The only thing I'm concerned about in the *actual* short-term for TSLA is smoothing out Model X ramp, nipping the quality control hiccups in the bud, and making sure the Norway situation isn't more than an isolated incident.
Krugerrand
Meow
And really that's nothing to be concerned about. Tesla has shown in the past to be quite capable of solving/resolving these types of issues. So, you're good to go.
That was no my intention. I posted the GM Bolt info yesterday because the reveal of the production version (CEO speaking about the Bolt later today) might have an impact on Tesla's stock imho - both short- and long-term:
GM's CES 2016 keynote with Mary Barra: Join us on Wednesday at 1 p.m. PT (live blog) - CNET
I will now stay away from this thread and the forum. Replying to insults (not directed at you of course, see previous posts) is a waste of time.
colettimj
Member
Any rebates they offer on EVs may also make them more compelling than their own ICE offerings. Are they willing to lose/make less on the EVs if it impacts profits and sales on their own ICE vehicles?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Aah, as J. Cox so eloquently explained this is the deep conundrum all of the big car manufacturers now find themselves in: to survive they must make good EVs with competitive pricing, but if they do they will outcompete themselves on their ICE cars - their bread and butter for the time being thus pulling the rug from under themselves financially. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Tesla SP (TSLA) can't catch a break today. All of FANG is UP and showing strength and TSLA is in the doghouse thanks to oil.
I can pity those that don't know any better. It's the ones that ought to know better (and probably do) that make my skin crawl.
Back on subject (short term price movements). There will be the unveil of the GM Bolt after hours tonight at CES and a lot of paid media will pick up on it like they picked up on Bezos landing a suborbital toy rocket.
It will be curious to see if Musk will respond similarly with an explanation why the Bolt failed to reach orbit i.e. that it is not compelling vehicle for the price. My guess is that he will simply congratulate them on heading in the right direction and reiterate confidence in the Model 3 $35K base price while clarifying that GM's $30K after subsidies = $37,500 for fair comparison. Which is the most devastating thing he could do.
While the macro world of stocks is not too great right now, there is a sense of sell on the rumor, buy on the news when it comes to the Bolt. As previously discussed at length the Bolt is of no material importance to either Tesla or GM, just a PR thing.
larmor
Active Member
TSLA and TM have been far too successful: they have exceeded all expectations, and that is why, imho, TSLA is in meh mode and SP will no longer react unless the car can drive you to the moon. EG: A near self driving sedan as fast as a porsche, without having to go the gas station. For self driving doubters, try driving on I-210 East any time after 2:30 pm, stop and go. They made a seven passenger CUV which is insanely fast with gull wing doors. A massive battery factory and all orders for commercial and home battery product all ready sold out for the coming year. A nine story reusable rocket...
If GM, VW, Ford, Fisker, or FF releases a video for a concept car with various claims, that is more compelling to the market than all of the current products offered by TM.
just my 0.02
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Smart people are not necessarily successful money or corporate wise. Take Tesla for example. So I would trust smart people less since the ability to deceive is higher. That said. I applaud tftf's tenacity and providing for talk points now that Avenger is gone.
I agree. They will compete with each other but only grow the whole EV market as a whole. Segmentation is a different story. I struggle with the background of what he's saying. I'm not even trying to insult him but he's treating it as follows:
GM will sell xxx,xxx units of Bolt and Tesla will only sell xx,xxx of electric cars, therefore TSLA share price in long term will suffer and short term will suffer because of the competitive outlook, is that really true though? We need to look at EV's as a product as a whole and see what the real competition is: ICE Cars.
If this were the case, then Toyota would have crushed everybody else with gas cars by sheer volume, but it's not. Not everybody wants a Toyota. He also states that LG Chem offers EV battery with same range. I think many of us TSLA "cheerleaders" (some admittedly more than others) are trying to express the point that yes LG chem offers the technology, but to get to the volume Tesla wants for mass market EV's, the supply is simply not there... hence GF1 and why Tesla management wants others to build gigafactories too, the sooner the better. I'm just trying to put the whole tftf picture together and I'm struggling to do that.
All I know is that, here and now, Tesla offers the longest range pure electric vehicle. Jury isn't out yet on the Bolt as the press is getting to drive the Alpha model of the car. In addition, the Bolt is designed with Ride-Sharing in mind which I think is awesome, but Tesla designs drivers vehicles that can be ride shared and semi-autonomous features... I like this option more because it creates a compelling EV not just for ride sharers but car-nuts and journalists who give awards and free PR if the car speaks for itself, which it has been....very loudly.
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My point exactly, given that the ICE vehicles are the ones funding the EV programs at the moment...
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