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jesselivenomore
Member
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
jhm
Well-Known Member
You're taking it too literally. There are many different products made from crude, but I am looking at this from an demand point of view. For example from three barrels you can make 84 gallons of gasoline and 42 gallons of heating fuel. So that works out to two barrels satisfying the demand for 84 gallons of gasoline and one barrel fir 42 gallons of heating oil. So in ratios you get 42 gallons per barrel.
So the problem with saying just 20 gallons of gas from a single literal barrel is that this ignores all the coproducts. If makes gasoline seem much more expensive. For example at $30/b, you would error to say that a gallon of gasoline required $1.50 of crude. No it requires about $0.71 of crude plus about $0.40 for refining to get the wholesale price of about $1.10/gallon.
You might look up crack spreads to get some insight into this.
So the way I get to about 1000 miles per barrel is 42 gallons per barrel times an average 24 miles per gallon. You can certainly play around with different mpg, but I like this nice round number.
Another way to play with this is to think about the average car being driven about 40 miles per day. So 25 convention cars consume about 1 barrel per day. This is useful for thinking about how much oil demand EVs are offsetting. For example, Tesla just hit the 100,000 vehicle market. This fleet may be traveling about 4M miles per day which offsets 4,000 barrels per day of demand for oil.
I am slowly trying to find my seat on the second, or even third, car of the TSLA train. I am hoping that once aboard we can hit The Julian Cox PT of $400 +/- 10% by mid 2016. Heck..I would be happy with $280...ok, even $260.
Additional: Tomorrow (Friday) may prove to be a very interesting day. As I read Max Pain at the end of today it stands at $225; there is pressure based on some nice work by other TMC forum members showing pressure to push to $200. Because of this we could have quite a bit of volatility in the price/number of shares traded. good luck everyone.
Additional: Tomorrow (Friday) may prove to be a very interesting day. As I read Max Pain at the end of today it stands at $225; there is pressure based on some nice work by other TMC forum members showing pressure to push to $200. Because of this we could have quite a bit of volatility in the price/number of shares traded. good luck everyone.
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Maoing, your conservative investing views are often valuable for balancing the discussion in this thread. Please continue. Your Dec. 30 post does indeed suggest reasons for caution. Thank you for that post. That said, you would be taken far more seriously by a good portion of the visitors to these threads if you didn't resort to using the terms "cheerleaders" and "fan boys". Such terms are degrading because they suggest that those individuals referred to are unthinking perma-bulls. You are welcome to believe that some are, but have the good judgment not to say so in print. I know you've been called names too in the past. Your writing will never be taken seriously by people you insult, and your time and energies are too valuable to waste. Please join me in a new year's resolution to stop the name calling. You will be pleasantly surprised by the results.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Wow, it's been hard to keep up with TMC today.
I won't elaborate in this thread how I arise at this, but my view is that Tesla will have 100 GWh capacity in 2020 and be able to build about 1 million vehicle. By 2023 Tesla will have 280 GWh capacity and will build out 2.8 million cars. I'd love to see them ramp up faster than that, but I can't see how that work logistically.
A single campus can grow capacity linearly, but to accelerate, you have to add new campuses and build them out in parallel. So if you add a new campus each year and grow each of them 10 GWh per year, you can replicate my numbers, an exercise I'll leave to the math wonks out there.
If anyone wishes to offer a faster growth scenario, please show me how you get there. Certainly doubling density every ten year helps, but not enough to get Tesla to 2.5M cars earlier than 2022. The challenge is not so much financial as I see it, but logistical. There are limits to how fast a single campus can be built out, and there are limits to how many new campuses you can start each year.
So I've probably said too much. If you've got a theory, let's take it to the Gigafactory thread.
I won't elaborate in this thread how I arise at this, but my view is that Tesla will have 100 GWh capacity in 2020 and be able to build about 1 million vehicle. By 2023 Tesla will have 280 GWh capacity and will build out 2.8 million cars. I'd love to see them ramp up faster than that, but I can't see how that work logistically.
A single campus can grow capacity linearly, but to accelerate, you have to add new campuses and build them out in parallel. So if you add a new campus each year and grow each of them 10 GWh per year, you can replicate my numbers, an exercise I'll leave to the math wonks out there.
If anyone wishes to offer a faster growth scenario, please show me how you get there. Certainly doubling density every ten year helps, but not enough to get Tesla to 2.5M cars earlier than 2022. The challenge is not so much financial as I see it, but logistical. There are limits to how fast a single campus can be built out, and there are limits to how many new campuses you can start each year.
So I've probably said too much. If you've got a theory, let's take it to the Gigafactory thread.
sundaymorning
Active Member
A quick reminder to all investors that no one could have guessed that the Chinese market would panned out the way it did. This was one of those Hail Mary moments that bounced the ball right in the hands of bears at just the luckiest possible timing. Congrats to them and make his a great example of why one should think long term. This ball could have bounced either way when external factors fall from the sky. Still 100% in Tesla at this moment and enjoying the ride. As a seasoned veteran, these things happen, which is why I invest long term.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Figuratively, not literally
+1 You don't get a mulligan on product ship hype.
So quick question from the "go long" lurker here: If my goal is to accumulate stock on bad news (I know I should dollar-cost average, but my (probably faulty) intuition says that reading this board should give me a sense of when is a better time to accumulate, and quite frankly, with your advice, I *have* done pretty well on that so far), what do you all think is the probable range of Monday morning pricing? Is it going to gyrate enough so that a market buy at 210 would trigger? or should I "place my bet" lower or higher? And sorry in advance if this question has you all rolling your eyes and getting ready to control-V that soapbox on "don't time the market if you don't know what you're doing (and you don't)" don't bother. I don't want to pollute the S-T thread, and I want to make money and learn and have fun.
Sorry I couldn't get back to you any sooner. I hope you were able to purchase additional shares at favorable prices this past week. We have had many legendary TMC members worshipped for their streak of correct guesses, but eventually, those streak proved to be short lived, and they eventually pack their bags and ride into the sunset. What keeps me here on this forum isn't so much what anyone thinks short term, but rather what their vision is long term. TBH, I am very thankful for the long algorithms that many of you have brought here to paint me a clearer picture of this company's long term capability. The hours some of you have spent on those algorithms and tracking deliveries are priceless. From the years I have spent investing in this company I have learned that only a few of us are able to buy in at the lowest low of dips. Your cost plus averaging thesis is the conservative play that is well needed in this game. If you are happy with the purchased price, then that is the right price, no matter how low tesla dips, being happy while investing is just the medicine one needs to function in chaotic times such as these. There will be many of these anti-climatic moments in the future and I expect to embrace all of them, as long as this company succeeds I will succeed with it. I am long term...
Runarbt
Active Member
Oil down another 5%, can we expect Tsla to follow?
i hope tsla soon will be disconnected from oil, but i dont think we can expect this uøyet. First we have to have proof that sales are strong and unaffected low gas prices.
i hope tsla soon will be disconnected from oil, but i dont think we can expect this uøyet. First we have to have proof that sales are strong and unaffected low gas prices.
Gerasimental
Member
The problem is no longer that TSLA is connected to the oil, but especially on volatile days follows the market with a high beta, and the market follows oil when the moves are this fast. This makes day trading and options extremely risky as there are so many hard to predict factors at play, but makes for good buying opportunities if you think long-term.
jhm
Well-Known Member
TSLA will disconnect from oil once oil begins to climb. At that point oil no longer serves to motive fear, uncertainty and doubt about the general economy or Tesla in particular.
Gerardf
Active Member
European markets down.. Looking at oil & TSLA pre-market, we might be in for another volatile day opening below 200.
Just as a matter of fact and for the record I also called the bottom perfectly and immediately in advance of the 27th March 2015 bottom as well as immediately in advance of the November 13th 2015 bottom (in addition to perfectly calling yesterday's bottom).
BUT!
There is a significant difference. March and November were detectable and possible to anticipate in the behavior of Musk / Tesla / Wall Street book-makers in a dynamic with a bear thesis concerning Tesla. The prevailing bear theses of the day were vulnerable to being collapsed by the actions of Tesla and its Wall Street counterparties (primarily Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley) - note that recently they managed to square BoA Meryl Lynch as well, presumably as a thank you for getting rid of the idiot John Lovallo.
The recent bearish price action is also de-facto vulnerable to action by Tesla but my current reading of the behavior of Musk/Tesla is that they have no pressing reason to act and better reasons to keep their powder dry for ER. For example it is hard to justify low oil prices negatively affecting demand coming off a record delivery quarter with a nine month backlog of reservations net of cancellations despite asking a large number of X reservation holders to configure and the slow X ramp FUD will unravel on its own and can be crushed in a single tweet at any time. Yet my default expectation is that with the possible exception (25% chance) of Musk himself buying the dip that Tesla will not act to crush the bears prior to earnings, and when they do it will be on the basis of fundamentals (shock and awe re FCF positive and positive non-GAAP EPS) which is not appropriate for them to disclose prior to ER. Moreover, background noise excepted, the recent price action is not a dynamic between Tesla and any bear thesis about Tesla. For example competition from the GM Bolt is not a credible bear thesis even to the bears. The last bear thesis that gained any market traction was FUD that Tesla would fail to meet 2015 unit deliveries, the collapse in credibility of that FUD occurred in November and the bears have been floundering for a new and cohesive narrative ever since. This by the way is why hitting the delivery target was a sell on the news event because it was not an upside surprise to anyone at that point. That upside happened on the rumor between $207 and $240.
So if the current action is nothing much to do with the Tesla business (which it isn't), it rests on tactical maneuverings of the asset class known as stocks and the features of TSLA as a specific stock within that class. Here we have strong support at $200 and a bounty of over sold shorts seeking $180 or better to get out with profits - many of which I expect have been trapped underwater since the end of March 2015 without covering, hence the howling and bearish skulduggery that can be expected this side of earnings but also the determination of the Longs not to let this treasure in margin-call bounty escape. As Maoing will likely recall, Musk and team visited President Xi of China in March and effectively announced Tesla in China was back on track over a weekend and had won license plate concessions in Shanghai etc. TSLA jumped $10 pre-market on the Monday and carried on up stranding enormous quantities of shorts that have barely had a chance to escape at break-even since but have yet to be properly squeezed either.
I don't think oil price is a problem unless one is trying to sell oil and I think the FUD linking it to TSLA via insinuations of low oil suppressing demand has waned in credibility. The flash crash caused by China stocks abating is significant though and I also think that Curt Renz point regards over-exposure to expiring Puts matters a lot today.
So basically in a long winded way I second Maoing with very high confidence in 2016 as a year for TSLA and I would add that February is when TSLA will take off, but my record of calling enduring reflections is founded in different circumstances and it may well be the case that there is some weeks remaining of gross and unpredictable volatility before TSLA resumes a solid upward tragectory. My best advice for what it is worth would be to hold firm and buy dips if they occur. Don't provide liquidity for short covering because that would be a serious opportunity cost in advance of a perfect setup for an enduring short squeeze.
Meanwhile I too would be interested in the inputs from technical experts on the subject of stocks. My piece is clarity of understanding the business, the mind of Elon Musk, the sentiment surrounding the business and its competition in both the auto and stock markets, the core technologies and the determinacy of the future history related to the technology, economics and sociology of market disruption. Not candlesticks, Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages. I can do Relativity, that stuff is Quantum mechanics.
My confirmation bias wants to tell me that the stock will go up today. I don't trust confirmation bias and while my gut may well be telling the truth I would invite people to look to technical folk if they need finer definition than February for the commencement of a 2016 rally.
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Starting the day with oil -5,6%, below 30$. Futures all at roughly -2%. Pre-Market as low as 196ish for Tsla.
I know max-pain is 222,5, but I have a hard time just thinking we could get close to that number.
We'll just be dragged by the macro tsunami. Wouldn't be surprised if we'd drop below 190 today.
RBS was saying "sell everything"! I think people listened to them...
Very good opportunities for cheap TSLA ahead. But I don't think we'll rebound as we did yesterday. Watch out for the falling knives.
I know max-pain is 222,5, but I have a hard time just thinking we could get close to that number.
We'll just be dragged by the macro tsunami. Wouldn't be surprised if we'd drop below 190 today.
RBS was saying "sell everything"! I think people listened to them...
Very good opportunities for cheap TSLA ahead. But I don't think we'll rebound as we did yesterday. Watch out for the falling knives.
jesselivenomore
Member
Julian, Tesla's future prospects are as strong as ever, if not stronger. But what is happening right now has absolutely nothing to do with Tesla or its fundamentals. It is completely macro driven, and there is real risk of recession. Risk, not certainty.
Yet in a recession, and bear market in equities, unfortunately none are spared. Not even those with the brightest of futures.
Yet in a recession, and bear market in equities, unfortunately none are spared. Not even those with the brightest of futures.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Breaking major trend lines on SPX. 10 year treasury below 2%. Canada will cut interest rates today. This is not a knife catching environment. What will MAX PAIN be? It will happen when nobody on this forum is recommending dip buying or holding the stock. When you feel like it could go to zero. I am guessing around 150.00 a share if Elon begins to advertise aggressively. This may be the one secret weapon that will help out the bulls.
So my last prediction. Tesla bottoms at $150.00 if Elon comes out with an aggressive advertising scheme prior to Model 3 unveil. Good luck to all.
So my last prediction. Tesla bottoms at $150.00 if Elon comes out with an aggressive advertising scheme prior to Model 3 unveil. Good luck to all.
Correct. All the talk about how well TSLA will do later in the year is great and I agree. But if macros and lack of positive catalysts bring TSLA down to $180-190 level in the Short Term then a 50% appreciation from there for the rest of the year gets us just below ATH.
I continue to be a buyer at this level but let us keep things in perspective short term. It could be very rocky.
Institutional, Insider and an abnormal percentage of retail investor support for TSLA is significant. For example, I am at $207 max with an average lower than that and nothing short of excessive gains or precipitous bankruptcy on Tesla's part is going to cause that to be sold. The stock can do what it wants between now and July before I expect to really need or want to be interested in the subject.
It is also the case that the upside catalysts are visible which is a natural precursor to them becoming obvious. It is also the case that a bright spot in the markets can be a magnet for capital fleeing sectors that have good reason to be in decline. Actually if you look at GLD while it is a bit up in the last day or two, it's general trend-line is significantly down in January. This is normally where investors run if they are genuinely concerned about equities. I think if investors are concerned about OIL then TSLA is not a bad hedge. I think the macro FUD can and should be taken with more of a pinch of salt. If you don't believe me buy GLD. It's cheap.
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