Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Curt Renz]

I stayed up long enough for opening pre-market numbers and I went ahead and placed and order for an exit at a massive loss. 2015 was a very very difficult year for me and it managed to spill into 2016,, both personally and financially, and I decided to make an exit, neither of which I expected nor wanted. I just want to thank you all for the community while it lasted and to say good bye. I wish you all better luck than I had. Take it easy folks....

Sorry to learn about your decision. When long-term shareholders get scared out of a stock that has been in a down move, that can be viewed as a signal of capitulation. Capitulation often marks a bottom before significant advances to the upside.

Perhaps you allowed emotion to overtake reason after reading posts by bears who have recently been active in this thread. Certainly that was their intent. They may be among those described in the article I linked in post #1232 this afternoon about the great number of TSLA bears who have been buying $200 strike price put options in hopes that they expire tomorrow in the money, i.e. under $200. We may hear far less from them next week, especially if a short squeeze emerges, which could well be the case.

 

[FredTMC]

Wondering what the Max Pain price will be for tomorrow's close?

 

[Julian Cox]

........ great number of TSLA bears who have been buying $200 strike price put options in hopes that they expire tomorrow in the money, i.e. under $200. We may hear far less from them next week, especially if a short squeeze emerges, which could well be the case.

There was news of exuberant net purchasing of calls preceding the slide from $240. I am sure the market enjoys punishing exuberant purchasing of puts too. After hours chart looks fine $208.04.

 

[AlMc]

There was news of exuberant net purchasing of calls preceding the slide from $240. I am sure the market enjoys punishing exuberant purchasing of puts too. After hours chart looks fine $208.04.

Tomorrow will be a WILD day.

 

[Papafox]

Very true. How about those who lost big money in the recent slide from 240, to 230, to 220 and now to 205? Should they also thank for their big (realized or unrealized) losses to the pep talks from the dreamers ?

MMD, please consider the role of a bearish advocate on this forum. As we neared Q4 deliveries-reveal weekend at the beginning of this month, if you had provided a solid bear thesis on why one should lighten one's holdings prior to the weekend and your reasons panned out, you too would be receiving words of thanks. If you had provided a good reason why you thought Trip Chowdry's delivery estimate was too large and beat the drum about the coming trouble with the Chinese stock exchange and how it would affect stocks like TSLA, we would be singing the praises for your wisdom. Granted, it's tough to preach a bear sermon to this congregation because so many of us are already singing in the same key as the TSLA ultra-bulls, but it is possible if you provide a solid argument based upon a progression of logic or backed with believable evidence.

The problem with most bear postings on this forum is they show up after the downward plunge has already begun and consistently advocate even deeper plunges. They also fail to deliver a solid rationale for why the stock should continue to slide.

If you wish to deliver a benefit to the members of this forum, consider posting your bear theories before a slide takes place and back them up with solid logic or evidence. We need a mix of both bull and bear ideas to consider because, as you know, sometimes the bulls get it wrong.

 

[FredTMC]

There was news of exuberant net purchasing of calls preceding the slide from $240. I am sure the market enjoys punishing exuberant purchasing of puts too. After hours chart looks fine $208.04.

Yeah, AH at $208.04 is huge. 250k shares traded in AH. Big volume. Was a very chunky move up. Was flat in AH for many hours. Strange... I'm wondering if the DOT announcement is perceived to benefit tesla more than other manufacturers.

 

[BornToFly]

Called the wife into the office. Explained that I am buying more shares. Had to convince her, but I got the plan past the CFO. Buying 500 more shares if it hits 200 again. I wanted to buy at 196 today but didn't have time to get it done at work today :cursing:

 

[everman]

Called the wife into the office. Explained that I am buying more shares. Had to convince her, but I got the plan past the CFO. Buying 500 more shares if it hits 200 again. I wanted to buy at 196 today but didn't have time to get it done at work today :cursing:

Haha, I am looking at adding about 450, but waiting for the money to clear in Fidelity after selling mutual funds... Come on, clear!

 

[aznt1217]

Called the wife into the office. Explained that I am buying more shares. Had to convince her, but I got the plan past the CFO. Buying 500 more shares if it hits 200 again. I wanted to buy at 196 today but didn't have time to get it done at work today :cursing:

Limit orders are your friend

 

[BornToFly]

Limit orders are your friend

I know. But I transferred the money yesterday afternoon, and it wasn't there yet last night. I had the day from hell at the hospital today and didn't have time to buy or set up a limit order. I set a limit order now, but with my luck, we won't ever see 200 again....

 

[maoing]

That's just good wish and majority of the bulls won't take the bearish views if they wishfully anticipate the SP going up. Here is what I posted the last trading day of 2015 to warn trading conservatively. Although it's not exactly right for the reasons attributed to $50 post Q4 delivery report slump, but I think I pointed out 1) macro risks; 2) model X production hiccups; 3) cheerleading usually in the opposite side of price action. Personally I sold 25% of my position in last minutes just because of TMC cheerleading index was so high and all in between 215-220. But I don't think the folks resistant to different views can be so lucky. I also made mistakes, my TA analysis told me 220 could be the bottom of this correction, if without macros impact, but it's actually the half way of this correction, so I'm still under water now:wink:

MMD, please consider the role of a bearish advocate on this forum. As we neared Q4 deliveries-reveal weekend at the beginning of this month, if you had provided a solid bear thesis on why one should lighten one's holdings prior to the weekend and your reasons panned out, you too would be receiving words of thanks. If you had provided a good reason why you thought Trip Chowdry's delivery estimate was too large and beat the drum about the coming trouble with the Chinese stock exchange and how it would affect stocks like TSLA, we would be singing the praises for your wisdom. Granted, it's tough to preach a bear sermon to this congregation because so many of us are already singing in the same key as the TSLA ultra-bulls, but it is possible if you provide a solid argument based upon a progression of logic or backed with believable evidence.

The problem with most bear postings on this forum is they show up after the downward plunge has already begun and consistently advocate even deeper plunges. They also fail to deliver a solid rationale for why the stock should continue to slide.

If you wish to deliver a benefit to the members of this forum, consider posting your bear theories before a slide takes place and back them up with solid logic or evidence. We need a mix of both bull and bear ideas to consider because, as you know, sometimes the bulls get it wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

Set a limit order tonight, who knows? Personally I think this is the last chance we saw sub 200 before pop up 300. US economy doing good, the 2016 sell-off was way manipulated by China, North Korea and Oil. But it's good setup though before a big RALLY.

I know. But I transferred the money yesterday afternoon, and it wasn't there yet last night. I had the day from hell at the hospital today and didn't have time to buy or set up a limit order. I set a limit order now, but with my luck, we won't ever see 200 again....

 

[dakh]

Well I thought of any bear argument I can come up with and here's one: if we go by the premise that $200 is the target price for Friday close due to options volume around that strike, it can be that the SP is manipulated UP from where it would otherwise be. Personally I don't think it's very likely but one can never know for sure.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The problem with most bear postings on this forum is they show up after the downward plunge has already begun and consistently advocate even deeper plunges. They also fail to deliver a solid rationale for why the stock should continue to slide.

It's fairly predictable that certain members of the forum show up on a down day and attempt to spread all the doom and gloom they can.

I don't believe that anyone really believes that bear posts here has much if any influence on stock price. Retail investors, even in aggregate, don't have all that much power to move TSLA up or down. So what is going on here? I would guess a desire to avenge past losses for being on the wrong side of TSLA on the way up, or just gloating for the lulz. I don't take it seriously. Tesla is still in its early stages. The important thing is not to time getting on the train, it's to get on the train and stay there until the company reaches its goals.

 

[Julian Cox]

mmd

Just to back up something Papafox just said. \

Look:

Jan 11th at $205

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 79

Excerpt:

$205.xx Well that just revisited and breached my Nov 13 2015 $207.xx inflection call. Sadly I suspect that there will be a better buying opportunity than this.

Today January 14th between $197 and 200.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016 - Page 118

Excerpt:

Buy Buy Buy! You want a $300-$400 asset for $200 the store is open for business. Stock trading never gets to look any better than this. What are you waiting for fill your boots.

Today's high $209.88 (Currently $208.04 after hours).

I have gotten some flak as well as some compliments (much appreciated) about bringing in some big picture concepts to this short term thread but here is some clear, timely and actionable short term commentary that was, evidently, free of confirmation bias and that I think serves to shift the burden of proof to question concerning your judgement. Mine is on the record.

This is actually a back to back pair of short term bear and bull ideas separated by three days that would be Short $205:$200. Long $200:$208. Cumulatively $13 (max $15) in three days. Not too shabby - and as an options trade pretty darn lucrative.

FYI, I previously called the run up that went to $240 at $207 on Nov 13th 2015.

And you call this "pep talks from the dreamers" Really.

I didn't call a top at $240 or even try to, but then again as Papafox points out neither did you. Personally it made no difference to me because I have a July-September horizon for a 2016 investment thesis I formed in November last year and nothing has occurred to challenge or even trouble that thesis one little bit. I just thought it would be helpful to share that thesis at this time in light of the recent bear attack and I think it is really important not to let the bears escape to cover under $200. I want their money multiplying my gains this year thanks.

To paraphrase Papafox / Janet Jackson: What have you done for us lately?

 

[eloder]

The economy is either headed for a recession or it isn't. This is a pretty binary event. If it is not, then buying TSLA here and averaging down is the right thing to do. But if it is, then buying here is a risky proposition, moreso than people think. Buying based on TSLA's fundamentals in the face of macro markets going the other way is a particularly dangerous proposition. Because even as TSLA's fundamentals continue to improve, the equity markets can price assets completely differently in a bull market environment compared to a bear market.

From 2007 to 2008 AAPL's revenues increased by 50%, while its stock price declined by 60%.
From 1999 to 2001 AMZN's revenues increased by almost double, while its stock price declined by 95%.

Buying and holding through a recession is not going to affect you unless you A) Need the money during the recession, or B) The business won't survive the recession. Otherwise, 401k's would be completely wiped out and made worthless every 5-15 years with zero hope of recovery.

I don't at all believe B can ever happen within a 5-7 year period for Tesla, so I'll still buy on every big dip whenever possible, even if a flip takes a few months it's all about investing intelligently and not being too greedy.

 

[mmd]

I think some of you are cracking me up My previous post was neither bearish nor bullish.

If some people with uber-bullish posts are assigned the credit for the small pop from $195 to $206 and for saving the day for some folks, then it is only apt that they also accept (or be assigned) the blame for talking the same while the stock was sliding from $240. Some members could have sold higher but stayed put due to those pep talks. This has nothing to do with whether I'm bearish or bullish at the moment. Some smart folks like AlMc did sell out some portion at $240, as he mentioned here. Don't you people agree that this is fair?

As for my view on the stock: Please see my reply to Stealthology, why I think cash flow positive is going to be very hard in Q1 or Q2. Will it affect the SP near term? I don't know, and I don't pretend to know. Anyway, it's time to get back to regular business of the forum.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I think some of you are cracking me up My previous post was neither bearish nor bullish.

Tempers can get hot when lots of money is potentially at stake and people are watching their account balances plunge. I've been accused of being a bear on several occasions, and one person even taunted me awhile ago when the stock finally went up after a slow drifting downward trend

I know the spirit of crazy has arrived when I go away for some time during the trading day, and return to the forum to find dozens of new posts, some of them unfriendly.

Does anyone remember the 90's video game Toejam & Earl? (Plot: 2 funky space aliens crash on earth and have to walk around to find the pieces of their ship to reassemble). In this game, the players pick up "presents", which have items that can be good, like sneakers that make your character run faster, or bad, like a hostile "earthling". You don't know what a present type (they have different sizes, wrapping paper, and ribbons) will contain until you open at least one of that type. Playing the short term game is like opening these presents. You could get lucky and get an item you needed, or you could unleash a dangerous Earthling that will harm you.

 

[MikeC]

I think some of you are cracking me up My previous post was neither bearish nor bullish.

If some people with uber-bullish posts are assigned the credit for the small pop from $195 to $206 and for saving the day for some folks, then it is only apt that they also accept (or be assigned) the blame for talking the same while the stock was sliding from $240. Some members could have sold higher but stayed put due to those pep talks. This has nothing to do with whether I'm bearish or bullish at the moment. Some smart folks like AlMc did sell out some portion at $240, as he mentioned here. Don't you people agree that this is fair?

As for my view on the stock: Please see my reply to Stealthology, why I think cash flow positive is going to be very hard in Q1 or Q2. Will it affect the SP near term? I don't know, and I don't pretend to know. Anyway, it's time to get back to regular business of the forum.

I think as long as it gets back to 240, then no harm done in holding from 240 to 200 and back. The devastating thing would be to sell out and realize the losses, which is what the people are getting credit for keeping people from doing.

As far as the pessimism about FCF in Q1 or Q2, I don't think you accounted for the decreased spending on Model X and are also overlooking other sources of potential revenue, like stationary storage and CPO.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Buying and holding through a recession is not going to affect you unless you A) Need the money during the recession, or B) The business won't survive the recession. Otherwise, 401k's would be completely wiped out and made worthless every 5-15 years with zero hope of recovery.

I don't at all believe B can ever happen within a 5-7 year period for Tesla, so I'll still buy on every big dip whenever possible, even if a flip takes a few months it's all about investing intelligently and not being too greedy.[/COLOR]

Right, there is nothing wrong with holding through a recession when you are a long term investor. And you should absolutely buy at the depths of a recession. My point is that buying at the beginning of a recession is quite dangerous, even for great companies like AAPL and AMZN.

I also stress that it is very unclear which case it is at the moment, start of a recession or end of a correction? Well, unclear to me at least.

If it is very clear to you that this is a correction in a bull market, then buy with both hands.
If it is very clear to you that this is the start of a recession, then I'd stay put and just hang on. Or even hedge. This is also what I would do if it is just flat out unclear.

That is my advice for a long term investor.

Of course, for a short-medium term trade it is fine to take advantage of market extremes(Russell down 11 days) and purchase for a bounce like I mentioned this morning(and did so myself). Whether it is a long term bottom and that the indices will resume a bull market I am still unsure. It is always helpful to continually question yourself in a recursive loop. I'm sure Elon said something like that.

 

[mmd]

@Julian Cox,
Sorry I haven't read all your posts in detail, as many are just too long. You might have called some tops and bottoms correctly, I don't know.

But didn't you just project 2.5M cars in 2020? Come on, even Elon will be blown away by such pie-in-the-sky dreams! And he is quite optimistic himself. This will need four other factories like the Fremont factory (capacity of 1/2 million cars a year), and God knows how many Giga factories. There is also the almost impossible time line of just four years to do that. This is nothing but daydreaming.