Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I've been buying in at $200, $190, sold off my profitable holdings to buy more at $180 and $165 ... and now?!?!!?! I'm over 50% TSLA in my retirement fund!! Not a happy camper.

Note to shorts, if the ship sinks, I will go down with it! Elon was wrong, he will NOT be the last one to sell his shares ... at least not his last shares.

 

[EV_Future]

I'm worried about the stock price which seems to just go down. Isn't there some obvious bottom?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

TSLA != Tesla Motors

 

[mitch672]

As a person who has been contemplating buying stock, I'm glad I waited... just gotta watch for when it bottoms out and make my first stock investment then.

Actually, it's extremely difficult to time a bottom buy, if you are within %5-%10 with a multiyear (3-4 years) investment timeframe, you will still be fine.
If you are a short term trader, I would advise you to avoid TSLA, unless your a professional.

 

[MitchJi]

Went all in.

Got one share at $161.1615.

Two more Jan 2018 $160 Calls for $45 each

Four Feb 19 Calls:
Two 190's for $2.82 each
Two 180's for $5.00 each

 

[dreamingof3]

As a reminder to anyone hoping for a good bargain. We are down over 18% since Monday. Now that is a brutal selloff without news.

 

[Drax7]

I have complete confidence tesla can produce (build) Model 3 at volume without a ton of risk.

1). Tesla's manufacrung VP came from Toyota and his factories produced the Lexus RX350. 100's of thousands of units per year

2). Model 3 will be a simpler car compared to MX/MS

3). Battery and Drive train are completely derisked already. Proven now

4). Body-in-white will be simple to produce (by design)

beyond manufacturing risks, capital requirements could be a challenge. I assume Tesla will start with ONE robotic weld line and human Assembly line for M3. Just like Gigafactory, tesla can choose to scale out the Model3 lines over time. Doesn't have to be a single big CapEx expense in 1 year. Again, just like GF. Could be a 3 year scale-out

Agree

 

[FredTMC]

As it stands right now consensus analyst estimate for 2016 revenue is $8.5Bil.

Based on my paper napkin math, it translates to about $500mil TE revenue with 75K car deliveries.

That should still be very attainable right? At a minimum Tesla will guide to this right?

The reason I ask is, LNKD is getting completely smashed as they gave lower guidance than consensus.

I hope Tesla puts out some strong guidance. This is not the time to be conservative and say 'win should feel like a win'. This is the time to put out most optimistic guidance to shock the market into turning around.

Yep. Essential to have great guidance.

You nailed it.

- - - Updated - - -

Fair point, but nobody priced in Tesla Energy.

or Tesla Shared Mobility (per Adam Jonas)

 

[FluxCap]

Stunning market movements here. This is a real gut check from a trading standpoint. I'm in cash and Tesla Motors, myself.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think you mean... double hinges

It's always good to bring a bit of humor during times like these. Thanks for the laugh.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Well, I'm out of stock and funds will be ready for leaps on Monday.
TSLA, if you are listening, and thinking about revisiting $160, could you please do it on Monday? Thanks.

Well, I was joking, but since you're here at $160, please don't go anywhere until Monday 10AM, ok?

 

[SBenson]

Yep. Essential to have great guidance.

You nailed it.

Thank you.

About your model 3 post above, I don't see it that way. I think Tesla is getting pushed towards a more aggressive design. See my reasoning in the BFPT thread if you are interested.

 

[jhm]

I'm accumulating shares at $160.60. This is too good to pass up.

 

[EV_Future]

I am a tesla owner but dislike the stock. I am a pretty big investor. I can't believe the naive attitudes about this stock in this forum. The multiples for this company are in the stratosphere and will do nothing but come down. They can never grow into the multiple they have today. Oil is at record lows which will reduce demand for teslas. Competition has woke up and more and more rivals will be out there. Many high flyer tech stocks getting crushed after lowering forecasts for this coming year. Look at DATA, LNKD, GOOG, and many others. TSLA is next on earnings. I feel bad for those who have put so much of their portfolio into this. Good Luck, I see 120 or below for Tesla soon.

Unfortunately I agree with you. The lack of understanding shown here about the worth of a stock...is surprising. Personally I love the cars. But the stock price is traditionally based on future expectations of profits, and Tesla has shown that as it grows, its expenses (cost of sales, sales expense, overhead expense) always grow faster. That is called negative operating leverage. It seems like a perpetual money losing machine. That is the real reason the stock is dropping. Not an "irrational market" or all these crazy theories. The simplest explanation is usually correct: the market is simply coming to realize that Tesla will never make money.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

At this point I'm expecting to see some sort of capitulation to mark the bottom. In the meantime, the meltdown continues...

 

[FredTMC]

Thank you.

About your model 3 post above, I don't see it that way. I think Tesla is getting pushed towards a more aggressive design. See my reasoning in the BFPT thread if you are interested.

Thx! I'll read it

i responded.

 

[sundaymorning]

I've been buying in at $200, $190, sold off my profitable holdings to buy more at $180 and $165 ... and now?!?!!?! I'm over 50% TSLA in my retirement fund!! Not a happy camper.

Note to shorts, if the ship sinks, I will go down with it! Elon was wrong, he will NOT be the last one to sell his shares ... at least not his last shares.

LOL, you won't be the only one the story hasn't changed.

 

[ohmman]

Unfortunately I agree with you. The lack of understanding shown here about the worth of a stock...is surprising. Personally I love the cars. But the stock price is traditionally based on future expectations of profits, and Tesla has shown that as it grows, its expenses (cost of sales, sales expense, overhead expense) always grow faster. That is called negative operating leverage.

Agreed, also. As a tiny portion of my portfolio, I don't mind picking some up after the ER if it gets nailed. But a lot of people seem to have this as their core holding, which worries me.

The attitude also seems to be that unreasonable increases in stock price are fully accepted as normal. But corrections from overbuying are viewed as unreasonable and caused solely by shorts. That's not how this works.

 

[sundaymorning]

Unfortunately I agree with you. The lack of understanding shown here about the worth of a stock...is surprising. Personally I love the cars. But the stock price is traditionally based on future expectations of profits, and Tesla has shown that as it grows, its expenses (cost of sales, sales expense, overhead expense) always grow faster. That is called negative operating leverage. It seems like a perpetual money losing machine. That is the real reason the stock is dropping. Not an "irrational market" or all these crazy theories. The simplest explanation is usually correct: the market is simply coming to realize that Tesla will never make money.

Says the the guy with 6 posts. Welcome to the forum shorty.

 

[dc_h]

Agree on the scale up timing. BUilding regional assembly in China and Europe, shipping assembled battery packs from Nevada or Japan might be needed to mitigate strong dollar and manage lead times to consumers. Possibly outsourcing or partnering on electronics assembly would reduce up front capex as well. Capex for 300,000 Model 3's could be about the same or less than for the Model X with the paint shop done and some of the larger stamping systems in place.

I have complete confidence tesla can produce (build) Model 3 at volume without a ton of risk.

1). Tesla's manufacrung VP came from Toyota and his factories produced the Lexus RX350. 100's of thousands of units per year

2). Model 3 will be a simpler car compared to MX/MS

3). Battery and Drive train are completely derisked already. Proven now

4). Body-in-white will be simple to produce (by design)

beyond manufacturing risks, capital requirements could be a challenge. I assume Tesla will start with ONE robotic weld line and human Assembly line for M3. Just like Gigafactory, tesla can choose to scale out the Model3 lines over time. Doesn't have to be a single big CapEx expense in 1 year. Again, just like GF. Could be a 3 year scale-out