Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JRP3]

特斯拉：今年3月将仅å‘布一款Model 3_IT与交通_cnBeta.COM

Interesting situation of semantics. This article says the Tesla contact, Alexis Georgeson said the rumor that Tesla will release 2 vehicles, one sedan and one SUV is untrue, but said Tesla will be releasing two versions of the Model 3. Perhaps a sedan and a truck (Model Y)?

The way I read the google translate version, my interpretation is that Tesla is simply saying there will only be one vehicle shown in March but that Tesla will be releasing another version based on the Model 3 platform in the future. I still expect that to be the CUV version.

 

[Causalien]

The way I read the google translate version, my interpretation is that Tesla is simply saying there will only be one vehicle shown in March but that Tesla will be releasing another version based on the Model 3 platform in the future. I still expect that to be the CUV version.

It's interesting.

It says that the verge leaked that there will be two model 3 based car. But according to clarification from Tesla spokesperson in China, 2 cars will be revealed in March. One is Model 3, the other is a sporty SUV based car. (Whether or not this is Model X we are not sure, seeing that the X has not been officially unveiled in China, this might be the case.)

then Alexis rebuffed this.

 

[demetri]

This is discouraging. Original signature reservation (now four years old) VIN #42x to Colorado Springs still no word on delivery. Last I checked Colorado was quite a bit closer to California than the east coast. :frown:

Sorry to hear that. Have you asked your DS where your car is in production? My DS told me a month ago that it was in production and then it was in final inspection. I had to call and ask of course but I find it discouraging that you don't have any info at all. My friend in the San Francisco area vin 8xx picked his up 2 weeks ago. It must be in production by now, all signatures are basically the same except for a few options. Unless your car was one that did not come out right and had to started from scratch. Could be any number of things but my DS kept telling me that the goal was to get all sig's delivered by end of 1q. My friend in San Francisco was given a delivery date and last minute was delayed a week due to some issue.
I'm hoping most if not all sig's are almost done and they have worked out most of the kinks. We should hear Wednesday about X production levels to help aliviate all the fears some analysts have on X production so we can have some upgrades or at least reaffirmed target prices. So all this negative sentiment can be turned around and the stock starts up again.
What has your DS told you?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Everybody here (including me) should have seen this coming. We failed. This cost people here thousands of $, paper losses or real losses, I do not care. I am just thinking again about this Eds bashing here some time ago, this was ridiculous!!! This is no open discussion culture, this is not good.
The Model X is late, there was some trouble with suppliers, after some initial deliveries ramp has not been accelerating, lots of Xs at SCs for issues, potential FWD issues is a great story everybody admitting it sounds plausible Can't blame shorts playing this card!

(1) Could you have predicted that the Shanghai stock market would take another nosedive shortly after New Year, prompting a Worldwide selloff in shares?

January 5th was the big slump, and I sure didn't see that coming after the major correction at the end of last Summer. Tech stocks are taking a big hit, and it's not just TSLA. Look at AAPL, MBLY, and AMZN if you want to see some examples. A lot of TSLA price action recently is due to macro. It's not just Model X.


(2) Eds presented their information in a poorly written and kind of angry way if I remember. The manner in which the information was posted was suspect.

(3) Tesla Motors Club (TMC) is a fan site, and there is going to be bias. This has nothing to do with "open discussion", and everything to do with people being fans of Tesla automobiles and Tesla the company. If you want unbiased information, get advice from multiple sources, do your own analysis, and take everything said everywhere with skepticism. Generally, people want to believe that their personal knowledge of a company and/or reasons to like the company mean that the stock will go up (or down if they are against a company). In the short term, that often does not work out. Stock prices can be very random and irrational in short time spans.

 

[Accident]

Can You Guess 2015's Top-Selling Large Luxury Car in 2015 in the U.S.? -- The Motley Fool


Let's look at the luxury sedan market:
View attachment 110591

Seeing as how Model S pretty much trumps luxury sedan segment in the US... let's look at the luxury SUV market:

View attachment 110592


It doesn't take an Einstein to notice that the luxury SUV segment is way way larger than the sedan segment. Now, if Model X can hold it's own in the market you'll see that the potential is far greater than with Model S. If the X ends up becoming king of it's segment just like it's brother S... Tesla will have a ton of revenue. They just need to ramp things up with production.

You can buy two those for the price of a model X. Except for the Range Rover, it's not even the same segment.

 

[McMuggets]

You can buy two those for the price of a model X. Except for the Range Rover, it's not even the same segment.

I could not find a chart that only showed the price segment of the Model X. I agree with what is said here that the Lexus is not anywhere in the range of the Model X. I think the Model X should have some ability to pull cusp buyers into the higher segment though because at least you are paying for something more than just a brand name when jumping to the higher segment.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Last I said is that I sold my last 500 TSLA actions on Thursday, to make them into leaps. Money will be ready for deployment on Monday.

However, when I saw price action on Friday, and we finally hit $158, I run out to get some money out of credit line into brokerage account. By the time I was back and ready, price hit 162.5 (damn), but I deployed about 1/3 into '18 leaps strike $100 with $12.5 time premium (was in a hurry, could have maybe gotten a touch better)

I feel lock and loaded for Monday.

Asking for opinions:
- if the price is around high 160's put everything in on Monday, or keep some for Tuesday?
- '18 leaps or stock? maybe higher strike than $100?
- can the stock really go for prolonged period under $150?

I have a lot of stomach, so -50% +100 are not an issue. But this money I can't lose. In the end, I can lose small portion, maybe 10-30%, but no more. Feel comfortable waiting about 18 months on '18 leaps strike $100. I have ability to get another tranche, if price slides further, as big as this one, to average down. Not because I want to average down, but because I think $160 is a gift, and anything lower is insane deal. If Elon wanted, I think he can easily put a floor under TSLA by working out a deal with FB or GOOGL, or even AAPL or MSFT for partial investment at higher capitalization than current 20B.

Looking for any and all inputs, and Jesse, I'd especially appreciate your opinion. MMD, you too!!!
Actually, what I probably need are real bears, if you would please, I'd like to hear your worst case scenario.
I CANNOT see stock sliding and staying into $120 for a year. If anything, I think it goes over $200 before April, and I thought there was serious chance of hitting $300 this year, not so sure anymore...
Thanks!

 

[lango]

My worst case lower target some weeks ago was for a forward P/S of 2 which would be $16B market cap. That is really, really low for a 50% growth stock. It can go down even more than that I think if we hit recession and/or if Model X is delayed even more which means a more problematic cash position for them or if Model 3 is delayed. One thing to keep in mind is that there is a lot of people in the market that still think they are too expensive at $160. We are right but we have to fight with them on the current price.

I think those negatives (recession, Model X and Model 3) is very unlikely to happen. But there is still a risk that one of them happens. Of those three I think recession is the most likely and Model X the least likely to go the wrong way.

I stay away from options personally even if I now have 10+ years experience in the market. The big problem if you are investing in growth companies is that they can get heavily cut just by external factors and then you have the time value going out. With stocks you can just wait. Better to use margins if you want leverage, imo. Other disagree of course but I don't have much more input than that on options or short term trades.

I still think we can hit $300 early next year and $400 at the end of next year best case. it all depends on the general market I think (assuming Tesla executes in a good way). I have never been so convinced about a long term investment than this one at this level, but that is five year horizon.

In general it is better to not commit it all in one trade. But rather if you want to go long do it under a period of months and not days and see how your position develops. Buy more on dips or on good news. You might miss some of the gains but the risk goes down significantly.

I think you are pretty deep into it already now so that changes things, too, so hard to give advice. I don't have to tell you it is a bad idea to risk money you can't lose on options in this stock. Is the date 1 Jan 2018 on the options?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I stay away from options personally even if I now have 10+ years experience in the market. #1 The big problem if you are investing in growth companies is that they can get heavily cut just by external factors and then you have the time value going out. With stocks you can just wait. Better to use margins if you want leverage, imo. Other disagree of course but I don't have much more input than that on options or short term trades.

I still think we can hit $300 early next year and $400 at the end of next year best case. it all depends on the general market I think (assuming Tesla executes in a good way). #2 I have never been so convinced about a long term investment than this one at this level, but that is five year horizon.

#3 In general it is better to not commit it all in one trade. But rather if you want to go long do it under a period of months and not days and see how your position develops. Buy more on dips or on good news. You might miss some of the gains but the risk goes down significantly.

I think you are pretty deep into it already now so that changes things, too, so hard to give advice. I don't have to tell you it is a bad idea to risk money you can't lose on options in this stock. #4 Is the date 1 Jan 2018 on the options?

Firstly thanks!
Answers to bold parts of commentary:

#1 Strike $100, Jan '18 has only around $12.5 time value premium (it cost $75 for strike $100, when price was $162.5), which sounds pretty good to me considering it's almost two full years. Intuitively, options look better to me, as they have different 'compression' characteristics than stock. $50 move up will net me probably ~$45 (some time-value is lost further your strike is), but $50 down will lose me only $35 (some time-value is built in, as you come close to the strike). So, risk/reward seems asymmetric, in a good way. But I never tried calculating percentages when levered, maybe I should, to understand return characteristics better.

#2 I rode FB from $24 to $75, because I believed in its potential and moat. To a lesser extent, I caught NFLX train. And I'm even more convinced in TSLA than other two companies. I am even starting to think that Elon's approach to (poorly) managing expectations has advantages. Well run company that always beat expectations (like AAPL, FB, GE awhile back) races itself against investors that keep increasing expectations until company under pressure becomes Enron, or it disappoints and hugely implode (not perfect examples, but AAPL, LNKD?) By screwing up, while achieving, Elon keeps letting air out of the balloon, before it's over-pumped. I do think he needs to get and work on that pump before balloon hits the ground though.

#3 I get that, but I'm really believing/concerned that we could gap up $50 after conference call, if Elon has aligned up surprises and marshaled arguments and story. New CFO will want to show off too. Not sure, but I'd put 50% that we have significant gap up and rally post call. Downside to current prices, I almost don't see. BTW, I could live with $120 if it's reasonably long, less than a year.

#4 Date is 19 Jan 2018
Thanks

 

[lango]

I think being under $120 at beginning of 2018 has very low probability. It can happen if there is a recession and Tesla therefore stops it's growth and having problems with financing.

It is very hard to know expectations for Tesla and what matters to the markets. Right now it has a tendency to ignore the good news (like S production and demand and the soon to be three revenue sources) and focus on the potential bad things.

It can go up a lot after CC, but there is a lot of people now in the market that does not think $160 is a low price for the stock. People have claimed they are overvalued for years based on their losses, and they are now in the drivers seat. To compare with FB, they had an exceptional report and they are now slowly going down.

I am going to add some too before the report as I think they will communicate enough to remove some of the concerns. There is also the short ban on Monday which reversed prices Friday.

 

[everman]

Sorry to hear that. Have you asked your DS where your car is in production? My DS told me a month ago that it was in production and then it was in final inspection. I had to call and ask of course but I find it discouraging that you don't have any info at all. My friend in the San Francisco area vin 8xx picked his up 2 weeks ago. It must be in production by now, all signatures are basically the same except for a few options. Unless your car was one that did not come out right and had to started from scratch. Could be any number of things but my DS kept telling me that the goal was to get all sig's delivered by end of 1q. My friend in San Francisco was given a delivery date and last minute was delayed a week due to some issue.
I'm hoping most if not all sig's are almost done and they have worked out most of the kinks. We should hear Wednesday about X production levels to help aliviate all the fears some analysts have on X production so we can have some upgrades or at least reaffirmed target prices. So all this negative sentiment can be turned around and the stock starts up again.
What has your DS told you?

Thnks for the reply. First off, this is not my reservation, but a friend. This is why I am refraining from publishing the entire VIN. Secondly, there has been radio silence since January 4th(?), when we received an email that the X had just left the paint shop and was entering general assembly. I sincerely hope we get confirmation soon. I have bet the owners that they have the vehicle by the end of February or I owe them lunch. If they don't have it by then, there are serious problems. Just to let everyone know, I'm about as long as they come, not a shred of bear in me. First in at $38 and eight major purchases since then, never selling a share. That said, I grow concerned when not only are there slow ramp issues (although this should be somewhat expected), but non-FIFO deliveries. That just seem wrong at a fundamental level. Maybe soon the DS will start answering the phone or returning an email.

 

[McMuggets]

Thnks for the reply. First off, this is not my reservation, but a friend. This is why I am refraining from publishing the entire VIN. Secondly, there has been radio silence since January 4th(?), when we received an email that the X had just left the paint shop and was entering general assembly. I sincerely hope we get confirmation soon. I have bet the owners that they have the vehicle by the end of February or I owe them lunch. If they don't have it by then, there are serious problems. Just to let everyone know, I'm about as long as they come, not a shred of bear in me. First in at $38 and eight major purchases since then, never selling a share. That said, I grow concerned when not only are there slow ramp issues (although this should be somewhat expected), but non-FIFO deliveries. That just seem wrong at a fundamental level. Maybe soon the DS will start answering the phone or returning an email.

Just wanted to say that when I ordered my Model S (which was 2 years into Model S being available and months into many P85D's already being delivered), I had radio silence for about 2-3 weeks as it said "Your Model S is being prepared for delivery" or whatever on the My Tesla page. I called my delivery specialist as well as emailed them, but they were so busy it seemed at the time. Possibly understaffed, because the one email I finally got back was "it's been really busy here and one of our delivery specialists went on their vacation... etc etc" as an explanation. I confirmed this was true, since my friend's Model S delivery specialist got changed to mine and he confirmed this. Moreover, when I finally got a date to receive my car the truck driving it to my home blew a tire and got stuck midway on the highway between Vancouver and Calgary. The driver ended up having to stay the night somewhere to wait for his tire to get fixed. While this was all real annoying at the time, all was forgotten as soon as I got behind the wheel of this amazing car. Oddly enough, my friend who ordered one before me ended up getting his Model S AFTER me by about 2 weeks. Did not make sense.

Reason I am telling you this is so that you can let your friend know it is not uncommon. It's a problem Tesla needs to fix with their delivery logistics and likely not a problem with the Model X. I mean if a 3rd-generation Model S can have delivery problems such as mine did, then a 1st-generation X where they are going over everything with a fine-toothed comb is bound to have delays and "radio silence". It would solve so many issues if they would update the My Tesla page to show people more detailed updates such as "Your Model X is having it's software updated...is having it's interior cleaned...is having a small latch replaced...is clearing customs...etc."

 

[eloder]

Saudi, Venezuela Oil Ministers Hold ‘Successful’ Talks on Market - Bloomberg Business

Hopefully, combined with China's market being shut down for the new year celebrations, we'll finally get some strong, healthy recovery started up here / have the stock more dictated by Tesla itself, and less on the macro.

 

[Lessmog]

Saudi, Venezuela Oil Ministers Hold ‘Successful’ Talks on Market - Bloomberg Business

Hopefully, combined with China's market being shut down for the new year celebrations, we'll finally get some strong, healthy recovery started up here / have the stock more dictated by Tesla itself, and less on the macro.

Chinese New Year is traditionally very much about rockets and firecrackers, isn't it? :biggrin:

 

[MitchJi]

Saudi, Venezuela Oil Ministers Hold ‘Successful’ Talks on Market - Bloomberg Business

Hopefully, combined with China's market being shut down for the new year celebrations, we'll finally get some strong, healthy recovery started up here / have the stock more dictated by Tesla itself, and less on the macro.

Del Pino met with al-Naimi after visiting Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Oman on a tour to drum up support for Venezuela’s attempt to buttress oil prices. Saudi Arabia is the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and led the group’s strategy in 2014 to defend market share against rival high-cost producers, including U.S. shale drillers, instead of defending oil prices.

I don't believe that they can get prices that much higher, and even if they do, I don't believe that means that the economy or the market improves as a result.

Last I said is that I sold my last 500 TSLA actions on Thursday, to make them into leaps. Money will be ready for deployment on Monday.

However, when I saw price action on Friday, and we finally hit $158, I run out to get some money out of credit line into brokerage account. By the time I was back and ready, price hit 162.5 (damn), but I deployed about 1/3 into '18 leaps strike $100 with $12.5 time premium (was in a hurry, could have maybe gotten a touch better).

I feel lock and loaded for Monday.

Asking for opinions:
- if the price is around high 160's put everything in on Monday, or keep some for Tuesday?
- '18 leaps or stock? maybe higher strike than $100?
- can the stock really go for prolonged period under $150?

I have a lot of stomach, so -50% +100 are not an issue. But this money I can't lose. In the end, I can lose small portion, maybe 10-30%, but no more. Feel comfortable waiting about 18 months on '18 leaps strike $100. I have ability to get another tranche, if price slides further, as big as this one, to average down. Not because I want to average down, but because I think $160 is a gift, and anything lower is insane deal. If Elon wanted, I think he can easily put a floor under TSLA by working out a deal with FB or GOOGL, or even AAPL or MSFT for partial investment at higher capitalization than current 20B.

Looking for any and all inputs, and Jesse, I'd especially appreciate your opinion. MMD, you too!!!
Actually, what I probably need are real bears, if you would please, I'd like to hear your worst case scenario.
I CANNOT see stock sliding and staying into $120 for a year. If anything, I think it goes over $200 before April, and I thought there was serious chance of hitting $300 this year, not so sure anymore...

Thanks!

1.My only advice is to please be extremely careful investing money that you; "But this money I can't lose.".

Setting aside the short ban (not sure how much impact this will have) I think that TSLA will continue to go down until the ERCC, with the possibility of a small bounce on Wednesday. Post ERCC I think that TSLA will bump up substantially. No idea how much or how long.

If Elon wanted, I think he can easily put a floor under TSLA by working out a deal with FB or GOOGL, or even AAPL or MSFT for partial investment at higher capitalization than current 20B.

IMO that sounds like investing based on a complete fantasy (do you really think there is any reasonable possibility of that happening?).

I'm going to comment on (no advice) your $12.50 time premium, comment, in the trading thread.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Looking for any and all inputs

Gambling with money you can't afford to lose is dangerous. Growth stocks that have executed their original vision perfectly have occasionally dropped >80% while only recovering years later, and TSLA is certainly one of the stocks where this could be a possibility. But it could also bounce back up. Please be careful.

 

[McMuggets]

Last I said is that I sold my last 500 TSLA actions on Thursday, to make them into leaps. Money will be ready for deployment on Monday.

However, when I saw price action on Friday, and we finally hit $158, I run out to get some money out of credit line into brokerage account. By the time I was back and ready, price hit 162.5 (damn), but I deployed about 1/3 into '18 leaps strike $100 with $12.5 time premium (was in a hurry, could have maybe gotten a touch better)

I feel lock and loaded for Monday.

Asking for opinions:
- if the price is around high 160's put everything in on Monday, or keep some for Tuesday?
- '18 leaps or stock? maybe higher strike than $100?
- can the stock really go for prolonged period under $150?

I have a lot of stomach, so -50% +100 are not an issue. But this money I can't lose. In the end, I can lose small portion, maybe 10-30%, but no more. Feel comfortable waiting about 18 months on '18 leaps strike $100. I have ability to get another tranche, if price slides further, as big as this one, to average down. Not because I want to average down, but because I think $160 is a gift, and anything lower is insane deal. If Elon wanted, I think he can easily put a floor under TSLA by working out a deal with FB or GOOGL, or even AAPL or MSFT for partial investment at higher capitalization than current 20B.

Looking for any and all inputs, and Jesse, I'd especially appreciate your opinion. MMD, you too!!!
Actually, what I probably need are real bears, if you would please, I'd like to hear your worst case scenario.
I CANNOT see stock sliding and staying into $120 for a year. If anything, I think it goes over $200 before April, and I thought there was serious chance of hitting $300 this year, not so sure anymore...
Thanks!

I really do not think you should be playing options with margin money that you "can't afford to lose" in a high-beta growth stock like TSLA. I am one of the longest bulls on TSLA here, but it seems like a dangerous game you are playing right before earnings on options with expiring limits (albeit two years out). If you must indeed take out margin and can't keep your hand out of the cookie jar at this stock price, at least go long buy simply purchasing the common shares as long as you can finance the interest in your margin account for many many years. Keep in mind, that as a bull I even have buy limits placed for $121 and another for $96! I'll bet other long term bull players have done so as well... because the market is crazy.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

FWD issues as far as everybody here knows (there might be more):
- Changed technology too late in development process (hydraulic solution did not work)
- Door sealing
- Ceiling hinges
- Glue for sensors not working

All these issues required a lot of changes late in the development process. Risk of validation and testing getting rushed and problems arise later on during production phase.

IMO the thing that will get investor confidence back is Tesla Motors producing hundreds of Model X per week on a regular basis.
People want to see TM successfully producing the X as soon as possible. The X issues already have an impact on TM financials and people want to know that this impact is over now and not an endless story.

 

[lango]

FWD issues as far as everybody here knows (there might be more):
- Changed technology too late in development process (hydraulic solution did not work)
- Door sealing
- Ceiling hinges
- Glue for sensors not working

All these issues required a lot of changes late in the development process. Risk of validation and testing getting rushed and problems arise later on during production phase.

IMO the thing that will get investor confidence back is Tesla Motors producing hundreds of Model X per week on a regular basis.
People want to see TM successfully producing the X as soon as possible. The X issues already have an impact on TM financials and people want to know that this impact is over now and not an endless story.

Fully agree on the importance of Model X production. In this market environment though I don't think the stock will shoot up significantly (meaning back to over $200) even if they announce or if it is apparent that they have ramped production of X. For that to happen either Model 3 reservations have to be excellent or Model X production needs to have a big impact of the reported financials.

 

[Papafox]

Fully agree on the importance of Model X production. In this market environment though I don't think the stock will shoot up significantly (meaning back to over $200) even if they announce or if it is apparent that they have ramped production of X. For that to happen either Model 3 reservations have to be excellent or Model X production needs to have a big impact of the reported financials.

Good points, but I remain more optimistic because when a short squeeze finally comes, and it will, the demand for those shares and the long-term expectations of current shareholders will yield a situation where the shares will be pricey once the squeeze gets underway. Between Model 3 reservations, confirmation that Model X production is ramping up nicely, and a quarter with positive FCF, we have sufficient catalysts ahead to bring that short squeeze into being, even in this environment.