Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ev-enthusiast]

German DAX tanking again.

 

[yngwie_2012]

German DAX tanking again.

as usual lately. Why are the People panicking so much, i dont understand..

 

[xhawk101]

What happened to Julian, did he get banned? We need his posts, seems only pessimists and doom and gloom left posting here...

From seeking alpha (mediocrity); certainly not from here I would assume.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

as usual lately. Why are the People panicking so much, i dont understand..

I dont' care about the reasons (stock exchange is neither science nor pure logic anyway) they do not make you money, fact is DAX is falling through all support lately, face it, no need to search for reasons. It could just be bets on falling prices big enough. DAX has a chance to fall through 9000 later today.

Here is the radical momentum for next ER this week, honestly who want's to go short term long here:

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TSLA down in Europe more than 2%.

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TSLA down in Europe more than 3%.

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TSLA down in Europe more than 4%.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Dan Galves, Credit Suisse:

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves reiterated an Outperform rating and $325 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), saying the Model X ramp is only a matter of time and they are bullish ahead of Wednesday's earnings report. The firm made no changes to their 2016 estimates while 2017 estimates were trimmed modestly."We remain bullish on TSLA, with high conviction on a 12-month view and also constructive in front of Wednesday's print," Galves said. "There are understandable reasons why TSLA has sold off recently…risk-off / global macro concerns, negative sentiment on auto stocks, and declining oil prices. But we see the concern on Model X production ramp / volumes, the subject of several recent bearish notes, as overdone at this point."
The analyst said he doesn't understand the repeated under-estimation of Tesla's ability to deliver, and see this as an opportunity similar to past concerns over Model S ramp.
While the company is behind where they wanted to be on X they still see 500 units of production in Q4 and continued deliveries (albeit slow) in Jan / Feb as signalling that there are no fundamental buildability issues.
"We believe that several minor but unacceptable quality issues existed on early production…the company slowed down the line to tweak the production process (fit / finish and trim issues appear to be fully fixed) and, in some cases, to wait for re-designed parts," the analyst commented. "According to mgmt., the production process is quite dialed-in right now, there are no critical unresolved design issues, and once re-designed parts are available, the ramp should progress quickly. Meanwhile, Model S production continues to run at very high levels."

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...ng+Model+X+Ramp+-+Credit+Suisse/11287159.html

 

[Gerardf]

Dan Galves, Credit Suisse:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...ng+Model+X+Ramp+-+Credit+Suisse/11287159.html

Very interesting. Thanks.

One wonders what management source they base their statements about MX production on.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Dan Galves, Credit Suisse:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...ng+Model+X+Ramp+-+Credit+Suisse/11287159.html

So it is interesting to note how Credit Suisse came to the same conclusion regarding X as most of the bulls on this thread. It appears we have been reading the information the same way they had. In any case, Wednesday can`t come soon enough. Hopefully it will stop the bleeding, but one more quarter of actual hard numbers reported may be needed to reinstate the confidence and see TSLA rise to 240+ like before.

 

[SBenson]

Dan Galves, Credit Suisse:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...ng+Model+X+Ramp+-+Credit+Suisse/11287159.html

"According to mgmt., the production process is quite dialed-in right now, there are no critical unresolved design issues, and once re-designed parts are available, the ramp should progress quickly."

What sort of re-designed parts are we talking here? To my non-manufacturing mind, fit/finish and trim issues would be fixed by programming the bots better. But re-designed parts??

 

[Derek Vinyard]

"According to mgmt., the production process is quite dialed-in right now, there are no critical unresolved design issues, and once re-designed parts are available, the ramp should progress quickly."

What sort of re-designed parts are we talking here? To my non-manufacturing mind, fit/finish and trim issues would be fixed by programming the bots better. But re-designed parts??

guys, I wish I would know more about the re-designed parts Dan is talking about. He is mentioning also "several minor but unacceptable quality issues" which obviously were present last year, we might assume that the "unacceptable" could be linked to the falcon wing doors for instance.

 

[vgrinshpun]

"According to mgmt., the production process is quite dialed-in right now, there are no critical unresolved design issues, and once re-designed parts are available, the ramp should progress quickly."

What sort of re-designed parts are we talking here? To my non-manufacturing mind, fit/finish and trim issues would be fixed by programming the bots better. But re-designed parts??

It was discussed before, the re-designed parts are FWD hinges.

 

[Buddyroe]

Well, the SuperCharger build out pause in the U.S. continues. There are no superchargers currently being constructed in the U.S. (1 waiting final inspection, 2 in LONG weather/other delays). And, only 1 Supercharger station in the U.S. has started construction in the last 40 days - by far the slowest stretch of construction starts in the last 26 months.

What does it mean? Hopefully we'll find out something Wednesday. I'm sure hoping the slow-down results in good news (like a partnership), and not bad news (like they are trying to affect the bottom line by pausing the SC network build-out).

 

[aznt1217]

guys, I wish I would know more about the re-designed parts Dan is talking about. He is mentioning also "several minor but unacceptable quality issues" which obviously were present last year, we might assume that the "unacceptable" could be linked to the falcon wing doors for instance.

Given that it's resolved. At this point, does it matter? Lol we'll find out in 2 days. Anyway, given that the pre market is looking like crap unjustifiably. Hold onto your pants people. It's gonna be real interesting.

 

[farzyness]

Well, the SuperCharger build out pause in the U.S. continues. There are no superchargers currently being constructed in the U.S. (1 waiting final inspection, 2 in LONG weather/other delays). And, only 1 Supercharger station in the U.S. has started construction in the last 40 days - by far the slowest stretch of construction starts in the last 26 months.

What does it mean? Hopefully we'll find out something Wednesday. I'm sure hoping the slow-down results in good news (like a partnership), and not bad news (like they are trying to affect the bottom line by pausing the SC network build-out).

They have likely neared, or reached, their target of superchargers for this time of the year (or have a pause to make sure the fire incident in Europe is isolated.) Also, they could be putting a pause in order to reduce cash expense so they can show cash-flow positive in Q1.

 

[AlMc]

What happened to Julian, did he get banned? We need his posts, seems only pessimists and doom and gloom left posting here...

His status still shows 'banned'. Usually these are not permanent. I see he still is listed as 'browsing' the thread sometimes.

The Credit Suisse post should bring some comfort.

Personally, short term ( weeks) the market is still in turmoil. I believe many stocks have been 'unfairly' punished...including TSLA....but we are just retail investors blowing in the macro winds right now.

 

[SBenson]

It was discussed before, the re-designed parts are FWD hinges.

So they are waiting for hinges? I thought they redesigned them a while back. They already delivered a bunch of cars. So the production of hinges needs to be ramped up somewhere? The way the Dan Galves report reads, they are waiting for some new re-designed part. Doesn't make sense that they would still be waiting for parts that were redesigned a long time ago.

 

[uselesslogin]

So they are waiting for hinges? I thought they redesigned them a while back. They already delivered a bunch of cars. So the production of hinges needs to be ramped up somewhere? The way the Dan Galves report reads, they are waiting for some new re-designed part. Doesn't make sense that they would still be waiting for parts that were redesigned a long time ago.

I was under the impression the hinges were redesigned more recently. This is not the redesign where they moved away from hydraulics but one that came after that and more recently. The issue is that the doors come out of alignment with the old hinges after a few months. It is all speculation and rumor although that seems to turn out to be true more often or not tbh.

 

[dreamingof3]

Nightmare on Wall ST.....Tesla is the star. 90 dollar drop in a month. :cursing:

 

[vgrinshpun]

So they are waiting for hinges? I thought they redesigned them a while back. They already delivered a bunch of cars. So the production of hinges needs to be ramped up somewhere? The way the Dan Galves report reads, they are waiting for some new re-designed part. Doesn't make sense that they would still be waiting for parts that were redesigned a long time ago.

The "while back" re-design was for the FWD actuators - from hydraulic to electromechanical. The issue with hinges came up later - there was originally post from one of the TMC members from Germany, which indicated some kind of issue with hinges (based on information from suppliers). Later on one of the Signature owners posted that he was informed that "internal hardware" for FWD needs to be replaced on his car, but the parts are not available yet.

 

[SBenson]

I was under the impression the hinges were redesigned more recently. This is not the redesign where they moved away from hydraulics but one that came after that and more recently. The issue is that the doors come out of alignment with the old hinges after a few months. It is all speculation and rumor although that seems to turn out to be true more often or not tbh.

Oh I didn't know about the second redesign, I was thinking of the hydraulics.

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The "while back" re-design was for the FWD actuators - from hydraulic to electromechanical. The issue with hinges came up later - there was originally post from one of the TMC members from Germany, which indicated some kind of issue with hinges (based on information from suppliers). Later on one of the Signature owners posted that he was informed that "internal hardware" for FWD needs to be replaced on his car, but the parts are not available yet.

Ah man, that's a very clear hit this late in the game. Now the price action makes a bit more sense to me.

 

[yngwie_2012]

a very nice start!! to the week with the sp!

Oh I didn't know about the second redesign, I was thinking of the hydraulics.

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Ah man, that's a very clear hit this late in the game. Now the price action makes a bit more sense to me.