Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[30seconds]

the cash flow calculation in this report is funky, but the point is that the company is guiding that the core business (making and selling cars) will be cash flow positive in 2016 and will be able to support investments for future growth. As long as the company is able to increase revenue at these insane rates (+40-50% y/y when you are talking about Billions, come on, how many companies are able to do that?) without massive dilution then I'm all in. The valuation will always be some combination of the current business + future business and as the current business is now at $5B (2015 revenue) with 2016 growth to ~$8B we are talking about reasonable multiples for price to sales. If TSLA is able to execute in 2016 then it will be a $8B revenue run rate looking at $11B+ in 2017. If they maintain 20%+ margins & 40% growth then I'm not really concerned about the current $19B valuation.

 

[Fallenone]

I guess guidance for 1.5b capex without raising capital is the saving grace. Rev miss, EPS huge miss, GM 20%, all terrible, just terrible. Tesla have to deliver this time.

 

[Svetlin]

You can't use deposits.

I think this has been disproved. Except for a few states with specific laws about escrow accounts for deposits, everything else goes to the general coffers and can be used for whatever they want. They just have to keep it as a liability on the balance sheet.

 

[FredTMC]

Keep in mind there is surprisingly light volume AH... only 1.5m shares... This could come crashing down to $140 before the end of the week (probably even at tomorrow's open).

Or more shorts could decide to take any profits and close out now rather than risk loosing gains

 

[mmd]

That "cash flow from core ops" is complete nonesense trying to game the headlines... Also what is ABL credit?

ABL: Asset based line of credit.

To Johan (asking about short interes)t: I checked Scottrade today. It had no shares to short. Here it to hoping for a $180+ tomorrow.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Julian banned...

+1

missing you at the party man.;-)!

If the moderator had any heart, he'd reverse the ban. Of course he wont, because he wants to make his point that you cant mess with him..

 

[maoing]

Elon did defend hard for TSLA in shareholder letter by giving very rosy guidance. Be cautious the pull back after initial pop post ER. But I think $140 is the floor for TSLA and buy dip in coming weeks.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Keep in mind there is surprisingly light volume AH... only 1.5m shares... This could come crashing down to $140 before the end of the week (probably even at tomorrow's open).

That's what all the purposely negative-biased headlines are for (who clearly haven't read the Shareholder Letter) that were posted with haste.

 

[RockinWithKids]

I am a very patient investor and during the slide haven't seen anything to detract from that patience and long term outlook for TSLA. I decided to wait until the IR to determine my next move. Bummed I am missing the bump but happy that Tesla and TSLA are doing well!

 

[techmaven]

Yeah, I'd like to be able to declare that the sale on TSLA is over, but two things:

1) Macro environment can still spook investors
2) TSLA is still on sale at these levels

 

[gene]

Big "Thanks" to the the folks on the "Model X spotted" thread. Their pics of more and more Model X's in the world gave me the confidence to stay long.

 

[hockeythug]

Thank you for a voice of reason among a sea of morons/fan boys.

Throwing darts at a board and picking a price floor is not a voice of reason. I also reported your post.

 

[FredTMC]

You can't use deposits.

That's my understanding too. But it's still cash on books

 

[austinEV]

I think this has been disproved. Except for a few states with specific laws about escrow accounts for deposits, everything else goes to the general coffers and can be used for whatever they want. They just have to keep it as a liability on the balance sheet.

Correct, deposits are essentially free loans. That is why a big surge of model 3 deposits could be such an important financial de-risker. If the market likes 1.5B from operations, think I much they will like 1B in deposits to work with.

 

[Rarity]

Interesting that not once does the letter mention "free" with regard to cash flow.

 

[MartinAustin]

Great results! (haven't read the PDF yet)

One comment is that if they meet that amazing guidance for Model S+X deliveries, the window of opportunity for Model 3 to be federally discounted by $7,500 at the end of 2017 will be slim-to-nothing.

And... hello to the 464 accounts browsing this thread! A record, I think...

 

[Mateo7]

Is Julian banned for a set period of time, or permanently? If permanent, I'll likely stop visiting this site. I value his perspective, even if sometimes quite polarized towards the Long side of the Force.

 

[SBenson]

Throwing darts at a board and picking a price floor is not a voice of reason. I also reported your post.

I thought he was being sarcastic. Not offending longs. But more so a jab at maoing.

 

[mmd]

Is Julian banned for a set period of time, or permanently? If permanent, I'll likely stop visiting this site. I value his perspective, even if sometimes quite polarized towards the Long side of the Force.

I wish moderator(s) could remove his ban from other threads. Then, you folks could read his wisdom in the thread "Julian's preachings". I need my short term calls to be green tomorrow. That would definitely help.

 

[Electrifying]

Question for the board: "Our GAAP cash outflow from operations during the quarter was $30 million. Operationally, this cash flow is offset by $209 million ofcash from vehicle sales to our leasing partners but classified in the financing section of our statement of cash flows. " Does this "GAAP cash outflow from operations" include the capital expenditure for the Model X tooling etc? If yes, with no major capital spending on factory until 2017, either 2016 FCF will be huge or Tesla can spend wildly on stores and service centers!